XAO Technical Analysis

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:

Totally disagree with your argument here. The media moves the markets, how ridiculous. Once again, another example of someone trying to justify why the market has done what it has done.

The market forces are internal, dynamic, and feed upon themselves. Social trends are pathological, there is nothing you can do start them or stop them. All you can do is participate or get out of the way if positioned in the wrong way.

When time is up the trend must change, if it wasn’t the subprime news worsening then it would have been something else that coincided with a market peak.
The warning signs have been there for months/years that this market is an aberration, those that saw this took action earlier, those that got caught up in the trend, becoming euphoric and complacent can deal with the pain. What were they thinking anyway?? IMO they are in a denial of reality, forever looking for reasons to project the current upward trend into the future. They have only themselves to blame and should be responsible for their actions instead of looking for reasons why the market turned.
The market turned because it turned, it will do what it wants when it wants to. Trade what you see not what you want or expect to happen.

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Next time before you jump on your one eyed bandwagon wavepicker why dont you read my post properly. Nowhere did I implicitly say the media drives the market. I actually said they were beating the crap out of this situation to drive THEIR OWN SALES. Read it again if u have to. Kinda funny how when things went to **** the other week the activity on this site increased exponentially ie. people seeking clarity and different opinions than the on side printed in the papers and on the news of doom and gloom. Where are the one hit wonders this week? The people asking what should we do? Not interested cos the clouds have lifted somewhat.
I was making the point of the instos slipping back in, which they are undoubtably doing, they are the ones who start upward momentum (as they also do downward), while Joe Average catches on months later.
Im not trying to justify anything the market will act how it wants and my little 15 line post will have no bearing and fade into oblivion, like yours and all the others. Not justifying, discussing!
Dont put words into my argument that were never there

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:

Traders again suspect Future Fund has been buying. (DWR

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I'm sick of hearing about this. Its a load of ****

What if the future fund investing is actually the perfect contrarian indicator. This Bull has convinced so many people its going to last for ever that even the Bureaucrats are now in on. Its like the mining companies hedging further falls in metal prices right at the bottom of the last bear market in metals.
What if this is the same but reverse. I personally have little faith in Peter Costello and his bean counters timing this thing at anything other than the top of the market.

Yes I know its ran buy smart people. But since when does the government time anything other than when the bull has already bolted. (Pun Defiantly intended)

Just like the tops in the market pull in the last of the retail investors this could be just another one (it is your money=Tax)

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:

If ANYONE gave me the headlines for the next 12 months and it was true, I'd be all over it.

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What I am saying is that if knew the headlines in the news before the events actually happened, for the best part you still would have no idea of how to invest yor hard earned. News is of little value, you would probably have an equal chance of succeeding consulting your horoscope.

If you think I am being silly well just go into "Training Mode" on your preferred trading software, scroll the chart back 5 years and grab the news headlines that were current at the time (excluding market data ofcourse) and see how succesfull you are, in other words backtest it and see if there is any correlation. The answer will surprise you.

Anyway enough of this C.RAP.... I have better things to do

Re: XAO Analysis

Just as an aside, I got this in todays West Australian newspaper.... a paper that actually, on this occasion, tells it as it is???

The newswires say there is a "short squeeze" in Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown, the traditional excuse when you don't know, although there was a positive article on Macquarie Bank in the Wall St Journal overnight and Babcock & Brown are finding their feet again having fallen an unbelievable 49 per cent from top, to bottom. They have results tomorrow and are very likely to dispel myth and imagination and instil a more fundamental confidence.

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Cheers
.....Kauri

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:

It is not some mythical demigod to be in awe off. It is shaped by human emotion and desire as much as it is shaped by human logic. Those that can stand apart from the rhetoric will do the best. This completely analytical approach to a social science cannot be right.

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Most profound Bushman...I like it

...and don't forget the inevitable shaping effect that 9% of everyone's income having a good chance of finding its way into the market will have.

Re: XAO Analysis

News is of little value

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Hi Waves

Hate to be a nit picker but...

Not strictly true, I shared your view until a few years ago I was shown a method of using market moving news trading the Emini that was highly effective.
Like all good trading ideas it was simplicity in itself.

Focus

Re: XAO Analysis

Not sure that I like the look of this...

Candle: Advance Block
Pattern: reversal
Reliability: moderate

Identification
Three white days occur. Each successive day opens within the body of the previous day and closes above the previous day. The bodies of the candles get progressively smaller with the upper shadows of day 2 and 3 getting progressively longer.

The Psychology
Each successive candle is smaller and closes further from its intraday high. This isn't necessarily extremely bearish, but it's certainly less bullish. It hints that the bounce is losing steam because each attempt to rally intraday fails by a greater degree.

The bearish Advance Block is similar to the bullish Three White Soldiers and bearish Deliberation.

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:

As for analytical approach it has much merit and goes hand in hand with social science. Firstly an acceptance that there is order in the markets to some degree, and as such at times forecasts with a high probability of succeeding can be made, even though it goes against the grain of the way people such as yourself think.

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I disagree. I don't think you can have an analytic approach towards the social sciences, as at some time, the analysis will have to be from a perspective. Markets and economics don't exist seperately from us, and hence it is at some point an idealism. And with idealism comes a refutation of the scientific.

Acceptance of order requires an assumption. You can't put the cart before the horse.

Probability is mutually incongruent with social science. However, if you want to equate the markets to number theory, game theory decision theory etc. etc. (and EW works well in these) then probabilbemileismatic away.

But it's just a load of wank really.

It doesn't change a person's profitability.

Re: XAO Analysis

Probably doesn't mean much, but it's fun drawing lines anyway...
Cheers
.......Kauri

Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri
Ah its a sign--Wembly stadium buy Leighton!

Moses I think possibly another 100 in it. (points).
For the XAO I have around 6090
No higher than 6190.

Which probably means buy Star Casino!

Re: XAO Analysis

The XAO inverted.......

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:

Hi Waves

Hate to be a nit picker but...

Not strictly true, I shared your view until a few years ago I was shown a method of using market moving news trading the Emini that was highly effective.
Like all good trading ideas it was simplicity in itself.
Focus

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Hi focus, understand where you are coming from, I have been doing similar with regard to FX for 4 years now, ie trading release of economic data etc. The news may cause a "pseudo wave" or movement within a micro trend in the market but in most cases is insignificant over the medium to longer term trend but great if you are highly leveraged to take advantage of the micro move(if you get the direction right). More often than not the release of the news cannot predict which way the market will trend and market will oscillate up and down repeatedly before it settles into any trend either in the logical direction as per what is interpreted by the news or completely opposite. As such many such strategies employ an each way bet of some type or similar strategy.

Once again I say for the most part anyone who had tommorows headlines (not market data) one day advance or even 6 months in advance would still not be able to effectively trade the market IMO

Rober Prechter who has done much work in area of Socionomics and studied social trends for year in detail gives some great examples of this both in his video courses and books, well worth reading.

Cheers

Re: XAO Analysis

I am wondering how the problem in sub-prime mortgage can impact the world/australian economy as a whole.

I myself think it should not be a big issue for Australia/ASX. The banks lend money against home being mortgaged. Generally, with sub-prime mortgage the banks will seek mortgage insurance to mitigate their risk from the inability to service debt from the borrowers. Even without mortgage insurance,the bank is covered by home mortgaged.The lenders can always get their money back from forclosure. The maximum loan loss may probably be 10-15%???

And when we compare sub-prime mortgage sector with the rest of the economy.How big is it? Tiny?

So I think we are not facing liquidity issue yet.Yes, it is gonna be harder from the company like RAMs to seek loans/funds from the lenders but I believe under this economic circumstance, other business sectors in Australia should not have any issue to seek financial fundings. I believe financial institutions should not have an issue seeking off-shore fundings as the proportion of low-doc loans in Australia are by far less than the US.

If the problem in the US starts from big corporations fail to repay their debts,I think that should be a concern because this big corporations normally can get loans without providing securities against their loans. In this case,we will start to see the liquidity issue. When big corporations default their loan it means bank will potentially loss 100% of their fundings which will affect the depositors/investors. Then, the whole economy.

Regarding the concern about Chinese market bubble, is it really bubble? Are the investors there using CFD,margin call a lot? I suspect they have no where to bank their money as they can't really invest their money overseas (except the government), can they? So where else can their money go to?

China is in the situation where the government has huge reserves, the investors have a lot of cash there they don't know where to go and that drive its PE ratio to nearly 40.

I have been reading a lot of opinions in this thread and just try to make a decision about what I am going to do with my portfolio. My portfolio is very small as I am still learning. I started my investment with $15,000. Last month, if I sold everything I would have got $24,000 and gain about 9000. But I only cashed out $12,000 and left $12,000 in the portfolio. Today my portfolio value drop quite a lot, it only worth about $7,500. I am not sure whether i should sell everything now or better wait and see.

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:

The XAO inverted.......

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thats a great picture there Ifocus.

nice breakout healthy pullback too support before off we go again.im sure everyone would be licking there lips if that was a stock they were holding.id be happy with it atm if it was me.

im feeling pretty confident we will go higher yet on that chart.i just get the feeling and by the looks of the xao chart this so called correction is far from over yet

just about time to open up those shorts again.

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:

I disagree. I don't think you can have an analytic approach towards the social sciences, as at some time, the analysis will have to be from a perspective.

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I don’t think this is quite true. The example of this is the EWP. It is an excellent representation of mass mood as expressed in liquid market patterns on many occasions, especially when coupled with sentiment.

chops_a_must said:

Acceptance of order requires an assumption. You can't put the cart before the horse.

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Order has nothing to do with putting the cart before the horse Chops. What is order anyway? Yes it is an assumption, a subjective one at that. However that assumption is not made easily, it’s only made after seeing things happening over and over many times. Order can manifest itself in many ways in the market, from repeating patterns, repeating price points, and repeating time points and as is most seen CYCLES. Have given numerous examples in this forum. There is no guarantee the same order will continue to unfold into the future as the cycle can miss a beat only to re appear at later stage. But it nevertheless is there.

There is no doubt that there have been many examples given by Mag, myself and others on this forum (quite successful forecasts in fact), that there exists some type of order in the market

Now if you don’t buy into this argument I really couldn’t give a fat rats a.se!! You are simply part of the majority that creates the trends in the markets place that people that can relate to what I am saying will profit from. I mean if you didn’t have a bunch of people like yourself that were willing to buy OXR at over $4 for example, then we would have no one to make $$ from

.

Re: XAO Analysis

chatty said:

I myself think it should not be a big issue for Australia/ASX. The banks lend money against home being mortgaged. Generally, with sub-prime mortgage the banks will seek mortgage insurance to mitigate their risk from the inability to service debt from the borrowers. Even without mortgage insurance,the bank is covered by home mortgaged.The lenders can always get their money back from forclosure. The maximum loan loss may probably be 10-15%???

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Hi Chatty,

You may be underestimating the secondary effects of the sub-prime meltdown - the tightening of credit policy. We have almost no direct exposure to the sub-prime meltdown (Australia works differently, securitised lenders being 100% MI covered) however tightening of credit leads to reduced economic activity and therfore often reduced growth.

FWIW, MI covers the lender 100%, however in the event of any loss the MI will pursue the borrower for every cent.

Re: XAO Analysis

What is order anyway? Yes it is an assumption,

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order stands in contrast to disorder

What makes order out of disorder is

energy

order = energy = information >---< disorder = entropy = random

mkts exhibit both random and the non random
( time frames / resolutions )

We can use charts of various kinds to detect and hitch our wagons
to the flow of information of energy.

One aspect that reveals the non random ( for eg )
is in the distribution of runs and reversals of a price series

order is or isn't


motorway

Re: XAO Analysis

August 22 2007: 9:33 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks opened sharply higher Wednesday as credit markets calmed down a bit and speculation grew on Wall Street that a Fed rate cut was coming, maybe soon.

The Dow Jones industrials jumped about 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7 percent and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rallied nearly 1 percent in the early minutes.

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http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/22/markets/markets_nyopen/index.htm

Green Thursday ~

Re: XAO Analysis

dont mind having a go at some drawings myself Kauri, have been playing with this and the DJI since we seem to follow them.

Re: XAO Analysis

Sorry to butt in on this interesting conversation, but I have a couple of questions:

Are 0.6 and 0.7% considered to be big moves in the US? Would I be right in saying that lately (both here and OS) there have been jumps at the start of the day but the market gets the jitters towards closing time and has been dropping back to almost where it started.

Also how closely do the figures in the overnight SPE futures ASX200 mirror what tends to happen the next day?