XAO Technical Analysis

CFD · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
~~
People should remember that in my style, time is often more important to me than price levels. I see support and resistance in TIME. ~~
Magdoran

I see this as making perfect sense. If I was to nominate a future date, you could see where it is on a time scale. If I was to nominate a future price, you couldn't find it on a price chart or relate it to a place in time.

People are conditioned to seeing a price prediction as confirmation of a predicted outcome. ie if xxx support does not hold the price will fall.

Not that I have a clue as to your method!

Gurgler · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

I have been reading this thread for over a week now and I am in awe, not so much of the knowledge (wrought from experience, I judge) displayed in the postings, but more so in the generosity of those who have shared it with us.

Thank you for your time and effort - in effect devoted to enlightening others.

I continue to learn.

YOUNG_TRADER · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Kimosabi said:
ha, 2 weeks, your dreaming, the subprime debacle has got another 18 months to play out by itself.

Don't be surprised to see some banks blow up, a couple of hundred hedge funds blow up, and some of these private equity deals blow up etc etc

Reminds me of May 2006, we were expecting base metals and China to collapse back then,

Also not too long ago we were expecting Bird Flu to wipe out the world and well "I'm still standing"

Now we're expecting this to wipe out the US financial sector aka the World,

Looking back on these posts in 3-6months time will be interesting either way

wayneL · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Now we're expecting this to wipe out the US financial sector aka the World,

We were commenting on straw man arguments in other threads...

POINT*** The financial sector IS taking it where the sun don't shine. For instance, look at this chart for Countrywide Financial Group, USA's largest homelender (not even sub-prime)

**** can happen in financial markets and **** IS happening. The credit markets are an absolute mess and this has yet to fully impact equity markets. It could take months or even years.

Even the high and mighty are being affected. See Goldman sachs:

Markets have shrugged off corrections because of easy credit. It is now time to:
1/Facilitate an orderly unwinding
2/Prop it all up again and further inflate the bubble.

One thing is for sure, if CBs go for option 2 and problems are not addressed, then we could be looking at total meltdown at some point in the future.

I know which I'd prefer.!!

Trembling Hand · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Reminds me of May 2006, we were expecting base metals and China to collapse back then,

Also not too long ago we were expecting Bird Flu to wipe out the world and well "I'm still standing"

Now we're expecting this to wipe out the US financial sector aka the World,

Looking back on these posts in 3-6months time will be interesting either way

Something I posted on my Blog last week,

For the Addicted Bulls. From Wikipedia,

Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference).The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.

Have a look at the Charts of anything. Currencies, stocks, Indexes, If you don't see this "correction" as different can you please explain to me how its the same??

Sean K · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
We were commenting on straw man arguments in other threads...

POINT*** The financial sector IS taking it where the sun don't shine. For instance, look at this chart for Countrywide Financial Group, USA's largest homelender (not even sub-prime)

Good charts Wayne, Looks like sub prime might be factored in already? :

If Chindia etc is all factored in, then how much of these charts is sub prime/credit related fall factored in? MBL half price, all the banks in Australia smashed, and sub prime has barely touched us. If at all. One hedge fund and a couple of losses. Some of it MUST be factored in. Just how much, may be the question. Do these stocks halve again?

Bushman · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Something I posted on my Blog last week,

For the Addicted Bulls. From Wikipedia,

Denial is a defense mechanism in which a person is faced with a fact that is too painful to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence. The subject may deny the reality of the unpleasant fact altogether (simple denial), admit the fact but deny its seriousness (minimisation) or admit both the fact and seriousness but deny responsibility (transference).The concept of denial is particularly important to the study of addiction.

Denial is a powerful state of mind.

Here is another definition:

dog·ma (dÃ´gm, dg-)
n. pl. dog·mas or dog·ma·ta (-m-t)
2. An authoritative principle, belief, or statement of ideas or opinion, especially one considered to be absolutely true. See Synonyms at doctrine.

nizar · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

And the lesson from this correction/crash is...
... Always use stops!

bean · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

For years, greed has been the underlying force in the markets. Now fear is replacing it.
Once underway, fear is an even stronger force. While central banks try to hose down the market's fear-flames with money, it doesn't change the liquidity problem. Lenders fear to lend and borrowers fear to borrow. Money "in the system" is of no real help. Someone has to borrow it. Who will?

"By Harry Schultz, International Harry Schultz Letter"

insider · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

nizar said:
And the lesson from this correction/crash is...
... Always use stops!

Ding ding ding! I concur... My personal lesson was forget about tax discounts like 50% CGT... I already saved more money by selling

wayneL · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Good charts Wayne, Looks like sub prime might be factored in already? :

If Chindia etc is all factored in, then how much of these charts is sub prime/credit related fall factored in? MBL half price, all the banks in Australia smashed, and sub prime has barely touched us. If at all. One hedge fund and a couple of losses. Some of it MUST be factored in. Just how much, may be the question. Do these stocks halve again?

Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.

As equally as this could be the bottom, it might not... just have to wait and see I guess. I suspect the bigger names (GS et al) could see further downside. But just an opinion on that one.

numbercruncher · 21 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

bean said:
For years, greed has been the underlying force in the markets. Now fear is replacing it.
Once underway, fear is an even stronger force. While central banks try to hose down the market's fear-flames with money, it doesn't change the liquidity problem. Lenders fear to lend and borrowers fear to borrow. Money "in the system" is of no real help. Someone has to borrow it. Who will?

"By Harry Schultz, International Harry Schultz Letter"

Exactly and it unleashes that most primal instinct of all, Self Preservation.

Bushman · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Here is an article which is quite balanced on the issue I thought. Echoes what a lot have said on both sides of the argument. Have a read. Amazed by the computer sell downs in '87 and '98.

Did not realise that the Dow actually showed a marginal gain in CY 1987 (2.26%).

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118756974903802456.html?mod=most_viewed_day

Awesomandy · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.

Quite a few places were already a few weeks behind to start off with. Then, there are the fund of funds, which rely on all of their currently held fund to provide at the minimum a reasonable estimate before they can even value their own fund.

Sean K · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Whether it's all factored in I don't know. But I do know backrooms are weeks behind and many instos don't even know their own true position.

Yes, but this is my point. So far, the big financial institutions have hardly had reason to complain. Growth, profits and earnings. A couple who have direct exposure to US sub prime have reported on it. However, Australian companies who might have links to sub prime have been smashed. If they present some problems, it will be as expected, and they've already been punished. Perhaps they'll get a further whipping, but it seems clear that bad news is already incorporated into the market. We're off 10% without an earnings downgrade anywhere. In fact, many companies are reporting record profits and projecting double digit growth. Again!....:dunno:

Awesomandy · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
We're off 10% without an earnings downgrade anywhere. In fact, many companies are reporting record profits and projecting double digit growth. Again!....:dunno:

The profits records and earnings forecasts were using numbers up to the year ending 30 June, and the sub prime problems only really started hitting in July. Therefore, I am actually expecting quite a few record profits and high growth forecasts. Just give it a few months, when everyone who has been severely affected by the current credit issues start issuing profit downgrades...

springhill · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
The profits records and earnings forecasts were using numbers up to the year ending 30 June, and the sub prime problems only really started hitting in July. Therefore, I am actually expecting quite a few record profits and high growth forecasts. Just give it a few months, when everyone who has been severely affected by the current credit issues start issuing profit downgrades...

Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots

Trembling Hand · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
Sorry i cant agree with that, as the US Mortgage Carnage thread shows, the subprime issue was alive and well back in March, and well before then. So why werent people running for the hills then? No, they decide to risk their money for another 4 months? I think not. This is more a media driven beat up IMO, bad news sells papers. Not to say there isnt some effect from this subprime problem, but the general public has no real idea what lies beneath and are merely jumping at their own shadows.
Ive seen people posting the big money left the building ages a go via the back door. Well judging by the number of Insto shareholding and Director holding increases, IMO they are silently slipping back in, while the plebs quiver in their boots

"silently slipping back in" maybe but the average punter does not need to put many hundreds of mil into the market. Most Insto will drip money in to any market because they have to. If they just beat the averages they are geniuses.
The Average Punter can be fully invested in 10 minutes. I see no reason to not take notice of the mess the market is in and be cautious. I'm pretty sure the aim of most people here is not to beat the averages by 1% per quarter like the Insto but rather,
1. Preserve Capital
2. Make money

You don't make money as a punter beating the averages by a couple of percent if they are down 10%

powerkoala · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO BREAK 6000 pts
now 6002 and back to 6000
is this confirming bulls are back?
or bears pretend to be bulls?

caleb2003 · 22 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

After watching a bit of Bloomberg last night I have to agree, the media are stoking this fire whenever they can. The amount of Anal-ysts on their using the sensational words like meltdown, fiasco, disaster etc just to make a name for themselves is ott

XAO Technical Analysis

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