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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Woops, thought this would find support around this time... today in fact for some and tomorrow for other stocks... Oh well, can't always get 100% of the move now can you?

This will be interesting to watch.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If there were accusations of the Aus market extending beyond fair valuation during the bull-run, then I make the accusation the Aus market has moved far below fair valuation.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brendan87 said:
If there were accusations of the Aus market extending beyond fair valuation during the bull-run, then I make the accusation the Aus market has moved far below fair valuation.
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Has it?? How do you work out fair value?? Something is only worth as much as what another is willing to pay. In the end the market will do what it likes
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well, there goes the trendline from the 2003 lows. (Today's candle is not on there, but it pierces right through it.)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The price action today has now moved right out of scope for my analysis in the short term.

This is now a capitulation in progress, and who knows where the bottom is. I have projections, but in my experience this kind of panic move is extremely difficult to predict. It’s beyond my skill to make any meaningful projection while this is in play…

The only thing that will give an indication will be when a counter trend rally comes in, and how strong and how long it lasts…

Time points become of limited value in a panic move since pitch (strength of the move) often overcomes support in time (McLaren concept).


Mag
 
Re: XAO Analysis

To add to the FUN the SFE is closing in 15 min. To fix a problem!!

No lead from the FUTs market. Things may cool down a little here
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
Woops, thought this would find support around this time... today in fact for some and tomorrow for other stocks... Oh well, can't always get 100% of the move now can you?

This will be interesting to watch.
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So I guess your support wasn't really support either mag?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
So I guess your support wasn't really support either mag?
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On the contrary, my comments were out of fear for short positions… and I was acting totally as a chartist looking at the bars…

Actually the support did occur, pretty much to the point, but that support was temporary, as I stated. The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day. It all depends on the pattern.

In my style “time angles” may be broken and recovered, they are not like trend lines, and my time points are still in the future, and they are quite reliable, but not infallible…

Panic moves are an exception, or very buoyant bull moves. McLaren identifies this as “pitch” overcoming support and resistance in time.

Hence you are absolutely right, in these times support and resistance projections become problematic… But this market hasn’t hit key time and price increments since 10th August…

But the start of this bear drive was projected for the S&P 500 to the day from about a month out (but got the price wrong – time is my strong suit, not price). So my style works in specific conditions, but not all the time. Same goes with Elliott Wave and other styles.

Equally projecting where this market is likely to go to is also possible (probably more in time than price – but not yet, when a counter trend comes in is required). In the interim when the price action is in between time and price increments, trying to work out what will happen each day is challenging and not a strong suit of mine…. I do know some people that are proficient in intra day analysis. This is not my strong suit. I’m geared for position trading.

So, yes, projection support at this point in time is highly problematic, I will concede that. But longer term support is a different matter. A lot depends on your style, doesn’t it?


Mag
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Fear and greed.

The market over and undershoots.

Right now is an undershoot IMO.

Great opportunity for those prepared.

Good luck! :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Magdoran said:
On the contrary, my comments were out of fear for short positions… and I was acting totally as a chartist looking at the bars…

Actually the support did occur, pretty much to the point, but that support was temporary, as I stated. The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day. It all depends on the pattern.

In my style “time angles” may be broken and recovered, they are not like trend lines, and my time points are still in the future, and they are quite reliable, but not infallible…

Panic moves are an exception, or very buoyant bull moves. McLaren identifies this as “pitch” overcoming support and resistance in time.

Hence you are absolutely right, in these times support and resistance projections become problematic… But this market hasn’t hit key time and price increments since 10th August…

But the start of this bear drive was projected for the S&P 500 to the day from about a month out (but got the price wrong – time is my strong suit, not price). So my style works in specific conditions, but not all the time. Same goes with Elliott Wave and other styles.

Equally projecting where this market is likely to go to is also possible (probably more in time than price – but not yet, when a counter trend comes in is required). In the interim when the price action is in between time and price increments, trying to work out what will happen each day is challenging and not a strong suit of mine…. I do know some people that are proficient in intra day analysis. This is not my strong suit. I’m geared for position trading.

So, yes, projection support at this point in time is highly problematic, I will concede that. But longer term support is a different matter. A lot depends on your style, doesn’t it?


Mag
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I don't know Mag, clearly you are light years ahead of me in your understanding of technicals. After I did my SIA course on technical analysis course I never looked into it much further.

I understand your point that:

"The concept of support is not immutable and is only relevant in time, just like resistance works, but can be overcome even the next day.
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It's just that a lot people seem genuinely surprised when their supposed support lines don't hold - a bit like the French with the maginot line.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

All Ordinaries 5,560.50 -241.00 -4.15 13:24
ASX 100 4,486.90 -184.00 -3.94 13:24
ASX 200 5,556.00 -232.00 -4.01 13:24
ASX 300 5,565.40 -236.20 -4.07 13:24

Hang Seng 20,760.91 -614.81 -2.88 13:25
Jakarta Comp 1,908.84 -120.24 -5.93 13:24
Nikkei 16,047.46 -428.15 -2.60 12:30
Philipines - PSI 2,992.03 -138.31 -4.42 13:24
Shanghai Comp 4,788.40 -81.49 -1.67 13:25
Thailand SET 752.32 -21.60 -2.79 13:24
Taiwan Weighted 8,303.14 -289.90 -3.37 13:25
Straits Times Index 3,154.02 -119.23 -3.64 13:25
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trade_It said:
Dhukka,

Instead of taking cheap shots at TA why don't you tell us when this will bottom or counter rally to continue down.

or don't your pretty Little PE's and company reports tell u that!
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Trade_it,

Firstly PE's are of no use to me, I don't look at them. Secondly I'm not stupid enough to try and pick a bottom. Honestly I have absolutely no idea where the bottom is and it really isn't that important to me. I will look to buy companies with solid fundamentals that are trading at significant discounts to fair value.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hello Joseph,


I think dhukka has a valid point there about the limitations of any method of trying to understand the market, and it is true that many technical analysts do get it wrong… as they must. No method is infallible, is it?

The challenge I think is to find an approach that yields consistency and good risk management.

I have a high level of respect for proficient Fundamental analysts. Buffet didn’t get rich by chance, and Jim Rodgers (who worked initially with Soros at the time their fund quadrupled and wrote “Hot Commodities” and “The Investment Biker” where he travelled all over China noting their growing infrastructure) is still a commentator I sit up and take notice of.

I believe the best teams have equally strong technical and fundamental players in them. I have a lot of time for good FA players, and listen to posters such as Ducati who have an insight into the way companies are structured and run – the balance sheet and what is on it (and also what is NOT on it) can reveal a lot about a stock.

So, please, let’s not get into a debate over styles. I want it on the record that I have the utmost respect for gifted fundamental analysts.


Warm Regards


Magdoran
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Its getting scary, they should close the market and send everyone to the Pub to have a chat about this .....


:cautious:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Wow! 5500 broken - that's about a quarter of the entire move up from 2003.
Hope any patient bears out there are finally being rewarded. Dramatic stuff!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Comments from last night...



192103.png



BOTTOM LINE
15/8:
EW Trend: Down
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Down
Broker Consensus: n/a


LAYMANS ANALYSIS
15/8:
The market is making a clear statement; it's no bearish slouch. Todays price action basically puts to rest any suggestion of a secondary bounce and provides, unquestionably, a cleaner and, dare I say it, more reliable pattern. Today's chart revisits the Share Price Index Futures (SPI) for September delivery on a 60-minute time frame. Semantics aside, its a glimpse of the inside workings of the ASX-200 (XJO) where we can better ascertain the pattern position within the larger daily time frame. It's not pleasant. Swan dive, cliff, whatever you want to call it, but we're peering over the edge here and unless we can get a move back above 5900 we're on our way to 5525 minimum in this move. Our call for a possible Bullish Divergence has all but collapsed. We're now sitting on the lower side of a support band from 5825 through to 5875. Any brief consolidation here would only continue to confirm the bearish pattern and would be an adjunct to further weakness.


TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
15/8:
The 3-wave bounce discussed on Friday has basically taken shape within a lower time frame. The statement being made however is the smooth and impulsive price action from that bounce shown here. We now appear to be in a wave-(iii) which paves the way for further declines into wave-(v) near 5500. Not a nice picture, but that has been the score since the first impulse off the July highs. My charts continue to show a corrective phase labeled as waves-A and -B. That may well be incorrect depending on how one wishes to view the June/July highs. My view is the conservative view. If we take the move to date off the highs as a new bearish 5-wave pattern, then things look severe. We are approaching the trend line extending off the 2003 lows, but as I have stated in these pages before, I place more emphasis on horizontal support, not diagonal. Today was also the first time that the 200-day moving average has been cleanly breached for 4-years. I don't personally place any emphasis on the 200-day ma but many pundits do. The cleanest and most reliable patterns are those shown in price and today shows it's turned down with considerable force.
 
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