XAO Technical Analysis

powerkoala · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Perfect. If it opens up you will just get people shorting the open. Best start will be a down open then a slow squeeze higher.

perfect only if you have cash left.
if not, just watching the bloody red screen.
better turn it off and sleep:

juw177 · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Wait up Dow Jones!

Awesomandy · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

The ftse is down another 110 points as we speak, so good luck to those shorting.

Pommiegranite · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:
The ftse is down another 110 points as we speak, so good luck to those shorting.

That was expected as Europe closed while the Dow was still halfway down the slide last night.

springhill · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%. Severe lack of confidence in the US. Are we all just awaiting the crash? Are we that piss weak that as soon as our investments fall a few dollars we run screaming for the hills? Discuss

powerkoala · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

massive lost on europe market and pre market of dow jones.
almost 3% on every market in europe.
pre market already -170.
jeez..
look this problem will be around for a while.
5600 for XAO ?
if this keep going, maybe 5400 or even back to 4800.
reserve banks action around the world really make investor worried.

numbercruncher · 10 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%. Severe lack of confidence in the US. Are we all just awaiting the crash? Are we that piss weak that as soon as our investments fall a few dollars we run screaming for the hills? Discuss

Maybe Aussie investors are more Informed and Realistic than there American cousins?

Perhaps we are accepting in the fact that our current enormous prosperity is commodoties driven and completely dependant on exports, and that if there is a downturn in demand things could get Bad pretty quick.

The repricing of risk is happening quickly, I wonder if this will be followed by a repricing of assets, seems a logical conclusion .........

theasxgorilla · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

springhill said:
What does this say about the Aussie investor psyche when we cant follow the US lead upwards? In that i mean any gains they have made in the last 2 weeks our market has only followed say 60-70% of their lead, but we are more than happy to follow their trends downwards in percentage terms outstripping their leads by a good 10-20%.

I don't think you can read that much into it. Different markets, different overall capitalisation, different overall liquidity levels, different sector sizes.

If I was to read anything into Aussie psyche I would suggest that in spite of being renowned as a bunch of gamblers we're a lot more cautious and a lot less blinkers-on bullish (read: sceptical) than some of the muppets (to borrow WayneL's terminology) in the US.

Edwood · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

SPI put in a new low then made a big reversal o/night - could be wave 1 / A down complete - Monday for an up day

Bush Trader · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
SPI put in a new low then made a big reversal o/night - could be wave 1 / A down complete - Monday for an up day

Would you like to post a chart?

Thanks

BT

wavepicker · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Just thinking of some possible outcomes here. There might be some possible support here. I saw support before last week but it only led to a temporary rally. The market should open weaker on Monday and then start this rally. Only problem is, will this be a very small rally to aproximately the lower major purple wave 2 and the market continues bearishly into a 3rd wave or will it be a more substantial rally at approximately the higher purple wave 2 and a higher point than the last rally we had??
I feel that the market has to make a more substantial rally first before moving down hard again. Just my thoughts though, and the market wil do what it likes in the end

CFD · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
~~
the market wil do what it likes in the end

Yes and in the process it will have those EW lines fannying about all over the place. : Between not knowing where to put a line until after the event and then not knowing what line it is until after another event, it's in a realm of its own.

To make sense of it as WP does and then being able to summarise it so, requires a high level of skill and dedication.

Just my strange way of saying I appreciate your posts WP, didn't know whether to post this or not, hope it's taken the right way.

wavepicker · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

CFD said:
Yes and in the process it will have those EW lines fannying about all over the place. : Between not knowing where to put a line until after the event and then not knowing what line it is until after another event, it's in a realm of its own.

To make sense of it as WP does and then being able to summarise it so, requires a high level of skill and dedication.

Just my strange way of saying I appreciate your posts WP, didn't know whether to post this or not, hope it's taken the right way.

No worries CFD,

Just tossing up some possible scenarios here, there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.

Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.

CanOz · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
No worries CFD,

Just tossing up some possible scenarios here, there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.

Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.

Thanks WP for the post, i got stopped out of a couple WallSt. Index CFD trades last nite and the last one was the reversal. I would like to think we could pick the end of the next little rally too, its quite profitable to get in on those inital moves down!

Cheers,

chops_a_must · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

wavepicker said:
No worries CFD,

Just tossing up some possible scenarios here, there is nothing high probability here, if there was I would have said so.

Have not taken any trades based on what is posted on these charts, will see how it trades early next week.

I agree with your postulations here. Friday smacked of a semi exhaustion.

Another rally into another dive would create havoc and panic. I don't think dip buyers are out, but another dive would surely shake them out, get rid of all short term buying support and lead to that large W3 down. The next move down is going to be especially nasty after central banks having pulled out all stops to prop markets up.

Edwood · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

yep thats the count I'm looking at wavepicker, similar on FTSE fwiw

wavepicker said:
There might be some possible support here....

SPI bounced off the 5,830 area o/night, up to 5,970's so Monday could see a short covering rally

wavepicker said:
Only problem is, will this be a very small rally to aproximately the lower major purple wave 2 and the market continues bearishly into a 3rd wave or will it be a more substantial rally at approximately the higher purple wave 2 and a higher point than the last rally we had??
I feel that the market has to make a more substantial rally first before moving down hard again. Just my thoughts though, and the market wil do what it likes in the end

plenty of pumping going on and we're into summer holiday season in the US and Europe so volumes should be down. I think its options expiry this week too

wavepicker · 11 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
yep thats the count I'm looking at wavepicker, similar on FTSE fwiw

SPI bounced off the 5,830 area o/night, up to 5,970's so Monday could see a short covering rally

plenty of pumping going on and we're into summer holiday season in the US and Europe so volumes should be down. I think its options expiry this week too

It was an execllent pattern and time point in the SP500 that signalled the down move 3 weeks ago. If we are in a bear market, I hope we get just as good a pattern to signal the lower high up.

There are varying opinions around the place from financial commentators. Some say this is still bullish and some say it's a bearmarket. All the more reason for one to stick to his own analysis. I tend to believe that the probabilities favour this as the early stages of a bear. How high it too high in the market and how low is too low?? Can we actually measure the market to answer these questions and say that probabilities favour a bear market??

The following chart is of the XAO monthly bars. It can be seen that 3 long term cycles below( I should note there are theoretically infinite number of cycles in the market however), 14Month, 28 Month and 57 Month, have exhibited gentle sine wave like behaviour for the last 20 odd years. THE MARKET MOVES IN CYCLES. After everyone of these cycles has topped it then moves below the zero line. Then we have had this very high amplitude move this last 4 years. This shows that this current bullmarket is an abberation like 1987 was, but even worse. This chart was created(4/07/07 )before the market moved down, as you can see all this cycles were mature and cresting.

So if we take the largest of these cycles the 57 month, it's good 1000 pt drop from +800 peak to -200(the low of the last oscillation). Now add the moves of the smaller cycles as well, the 28 month and 14 Month and this is even bigger. This implies a move back to 4450!!

Now this does imply timing, it's only an observation. There is no certainty here, just like any form of analysis it is open to interpretation, but based on these charts, if the market has not topped, when it does, it looks like a long way down! But cetainly these 3 cycles look very mature and appear to have crested and are pointed hard down. Gravity will not be defied.

Cheers

steven1234 · 12 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

On the XJO chart it looks like the 200 day moving average is providing support. Every time it has dropped under it looks like bargain hunters jumped into the market.

The XAO is yet to drop under the 200 day moving average.

I will start getting worried when both indexes close under the 200 day moving averages. Which close below do you guys think is more critical to the overall market sentiment, XJO or XAO?

So far i have used the 200 day moving average as an indicatior of when bargains are available, ie when the market will turn. So far so good as it has resulted in profitable trades (eg i bought JML on monday at 1.20, on thursday it was up 17.5% on my purchase price and on friday it was still up 8.3%.)

insider · 12 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey wave picker if you don't mind me asking where do you get these cool graphs from?

wavepicker · 12 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

insider said:
Hey wave picker if you don't mind me asking where do you get these cool graphs from?

In this instance I did them in excel. If you are going to do this sort of analysis then either of the following would be most suitable:-

-amibroker
-weathlab
-XL Analyzer

Cheers

XAO Technical Analysis

powerkoala

juw177

Awesomandy

Pommiegranite

springhill

Make the drill work for YOU

powerkoala

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Edwood

Bush Trader

wavepicker

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CFD

wavepicker

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

chops_a_must

Printing My Own Money

Edwood

wavepicker

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steven1234

insider

wavepicker

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XAO Technical Analysis

Make the drill work for YOU

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