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XAO Technical Analysis

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I think so too jeff. Big up day due. Banks leading the way.

Looking mainly for oversold stocks as the main movers for this short run.... if it happens that is.

Maybe mining and engineering services. What sector can bounce hardest?
 
tech/a said:
Boom Boom.
Click to expand...

Congratulations! Your calls are very impressive.

6 months up and 1 month down is a fairly common sequence and we've had 6 months up to 15-May now 1 month down (nearly) to ~62% retracement ... Gann and Elliott working well together so far.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
I think so too jeff. Big up day due. Banks leading the way.

Looking mainly for oversold stocks as the main movers for this short run.... if it happens that is.

Maybe mining and engineering services. What sector can bounce hardest?
Click to expand...

WOR, DOW, ANG, SKE, LEI all did well.
 
I have closed my short on QBE and looking for the reversal of the XAO to resume trend down towards 45 - 4600
Bit dangerous at this stage with no obvious short term overhead resistance until 4800.
Comments from US Fed coming as well which can affect the market.
 
tech.a what is your position on today's surge???
I actually closed some looser (better today than yesterday with 2.7% up) and bought some cheaper BEAR.
have we seen the bottom or was it a nice chance to exit
 


In my view, the recent price action on the ASX 200 confirms that a sustained break above resistance at 5,000 remains unlikely and that the medium term trading range of between 4,000 and 5,000 points remains intact. In the absence of damaging news out of Europe, Japan or the US, the market should trade in the upper half of that range. I only see the correction deepening to the bottom half of the trading range if a further "credit" event occurs or if the pace of the wind-back in US quantitative easing (QE) is faster than expected. I still feel that the economic recovery in the US, while encouraging, remains tentative at best and I don't think Ben Bernanke would risk shaking the hard-won emerging confidence in that economy through a drastic reduction in QE.
 
qldfrog said:
tech.a what is your position on today's surge???
I actually closed some looser (better today than yesterday with 2.7% up) and bought some cheaper BEAR.
have we seen the bottom or was it a nice chance to exit
Click to expand...

Sorry just saw this.

Click to expand.

The ABC is in Green a little hard to see.
Where the current 1/2/3 are.




Concurring to a degree with Coolcup.
 
Ves said:
Tech/A is this wave count valid as long as it stays under 4900 (wave 1 bottom)?
Click to expand...

Yes.
Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
Really early days here.
 
Gringotts Bank said:
4787 now = 23.6% retrace.

Looks like it has legs. Hope so. Big round number ahead.
Click to expand...

Round number broken is significant. I'll say 4871 now, which is 90% of the size of move of the greatest distance from the trendline on the down leg. What a shakeout this morning.imp:
 
tech/a said:
Yes.
Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
Really early days here.
Click to expand...

Early days is an excellent way of expressing it Tech. How much of this little bounce is due to the financials? Is it possible, technically, to isolate this sector?

I see no good reason to jump into anything at this time. Mind you I am not a speculative investor.

Regards

Rick
 

Blue is the XJO
Very correlated

 
tech/a said:
Yes.
Wave 4s normally start with a deep retracement towards 1
And ideally they form a triangular pattern.(Wave 4)
Really early days here.
Click to expand...

Looks like the retrace is happening. Yesterday was unfortunately a surprise to me - over eager.
I expected the upswing to only last Friday.
Short was looking very threatened yesterday.
Now pulling back - whilst would like to see T/A's target in the mid term, looking for 4560 at first.
 

XFJ is the S&P ASX 200 Financials index.
 
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