XAO Technical Analysis

[Gringotts Bank]

4774 - should be support here. Relief rally time? Should pause at the very least. Low risk entry unless the close is <4770.

 

[tech/a]

4774 - should be support here. Relief rally time? Should pause at the very least. Low risk entry unless the close is <4770.

Agree
Its at the point of the first wave 5 extension on my chart.
Would like to see a strong bar off the spike low.As I have a short term long FTSE trade in play.
a few ticks from stop at close!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Agree
Its at the point of the first wave 5 extension on my chart.
Would like to see a strong bar off the spike low.As I have a short term long FTSE trade in play.
a few ticks from stop at close!

I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm. 25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.

 

[tech/a]

I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm. 25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.

Agree again.
Most unusual!

 

[Trembling Hand]

I'd also prefer a strong candle for tomorrow to confirm. 25 point run up from the intraday low is not all that convincing and follow through tomorrow is looking less likely by the hour.

You wouldn't think the XAO is going too far higher with the AUD taking it in the neck since this time yesty. Thats money flowing away from the game of the last 6 months.

 

[tech/a]

Agree again.
Most unusual!

That I agree again.

 

[CanOz]

4800 seems a tad sticky....

 

[Joe Blow]

Folks, you can find the missing posts from this thread over at the XAO Banter Thread.

This thread is for XAO technical analysis only. General XAO commentary can continue over at the banter thread.

Thanks!

 

[nulla nulla]

Folks, you can find the missing posts from this thread over at the XAO Banter Thread.

This thread is for XAO technical analysis only. General XAO commentary can continue over at the banter thread.

Thanks!

Is there a link? Oops sorry, found it.

 

[Joe Blow]

Is there a link?

I linked to it in the above post, but here it is again: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17461

 

[nulla nulla]

You are quick Joe, but my edit was quicker... Missed it by that much .

 

[chops_a_must]

If someone can put up a AUD/USD correlation chart with the index, that would be good.

That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.

 

[Trembling Hand]

If someone can put up a AUD/USD correlation chart with the index, that would be good.

That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.

Nah not really. That carry trade correlation feel to bits over the last 1 1/2 years. Just as the main stream media started to use the "risk on/off" term. Though its cleraly been the play for the last two weeks.



ASX200 in red (SPI)
AUSUSD in black.

 

[chops_a_must]

Cheers.

 

[sinner]

That appears to have been quite a good leading indicator over the last 12 months about where our market is heading.

Isn't it generally the other way around? You have to make sure you price the "market" in USD if you're going to compare it to AUDUSD. Even on the monthly chart, you can see in 2007/2008, 2010 and 2011 the market leads downside by a monthly close at least (if not much more, like in 2007).



There is a paper out there on using "risk" currency pairs (specifically tested was AUDUSD) as a hedge against equity longs due to this lag shown above. I didn't really buy it. To me it seems this kind of hedge really just has the effect of repricing your equity long in a different currency, which can't actually protect a position in real terms.

 

[nulla nulla]

The falling Aud$ makes our share market unattractive to off-shore investors and the money continues to flow out, probably back to the US where investors are keen to get into the "recovering" market.




Personally I think they are creating another bigger bubble for themselves. However our market continues to fall as a result of their activities.



Maybe the previous resistance level of 4600 can become a support level, otherwise we are at risk of testing 4350 or there abouts. Alan Kohler makes an interesting comparison of the fall of the All Ords compared to the US S&P500 charted in US$. It tends to put the extent of our retraction in comparison to the US in a more accurate perspective.

http://www.eurekareport.com.au/graphs/list

 

[CanOz]

Looking at the TPOs for the SPI contract you can see the "P" formation from short covering.

I'm guessing the market will try and test at least the midpoint at 4773, if not the prior session POC at 4752. If the market tests these and rejects then the short term auction to the upside should continue.

If 52 fails then we should test 4728. IF we can test lower and reject then we could see value accepted in the 4771 area, then higher to test 4848 again...lets see...

The day session TPOs have the slate grey background and the nite sessions the black...before the last bracket (range) on the 4th, the market was generally in balance during the overnight US sessions, and was extending the range during the day sessions. That now has changed and we are seeing a tendency to balance during the day and range over night...not sure what that means other than we are having more volatility during the US session...given this, will we bracket during the day and then test those areas overnight as the US tests its key levels again?

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Looking at the TPOs for the SPI contract you can see the "P" formation from short covering.

I'm guessing the market will try and test at least the midpoint at 4773, if not the prior session POC at 4752. If the market tests these and rejects then the short term auction to the upside should continue.

If 52 fails then we should test 4728. IF we can test lower and reject then we could see value accepted in the 4771 area, then higher to test 4848 again...lets see...

The day session TPOs have the slate grey background and the nite sessions the black...before the last bracket (range) on the 4th, the market was generally in balance during the overnight US sessions, and was extending the range during the day sessions. That now has changed and we are seeing a tendency to balance during the day and range over night...not sure what that means other than we are having more volatility during the US session...given this, will we bracket during the day and then test those areas overnight as the US tests its key levels again?

Cheers,


CanOz

Well we tested the midpoint and a three ticks below in the ETH session of the SPI. The next day saw us open and close below that midpoint in what was a very balanced day. So value was accepted lower, then in the ETH session we have broke lower again, then closed right at the prior recent low of 4725. We have since tested the value area low, but not the overnight low yet. We are currently accepting value at 4725 ish in a slow Asian session. Totally expecting a blance day in RTH today. Perhaps we'll get another test of the low though in ETH in Europe.

The SPI looks pretty weak and another move up will need a bit of solid bracketing here i reckon. If we do break higher, then 4798 would be a potential target.

Looking at the daily bar chart its not unimaginable to think that 4540-4500 will come into play...

By the way this is the SPI, more closely related to the XJO, still very relevant and this thread is used more than the XJO.

CanOz

 

[mr. jeff]

Having broken that possible support this morning, what are the probabilities of a rebound on that level before close - the news seems like the market could not get much worse which is always a possible sign for a short term rebound.
Jobs figures just out didn't budge the chart much...

 

[Trembling Hand]

Having broken that possible support this morning, what are the probabilities of a rebound on that level before close - the news seems like the market could not get much worse which is always a possible sign for a short term rebound.
Jobs figures just out didn't budge the chart much...

The rest of Asia is getting a right royal flogging - China -3.3 %, Japan -4.6 %, Honkers -3%. For the Aussie to be where it is is a rebound.