XAO Technical Analysis

[McLovin]

Well you'd expect in a screaming Bull market he'd at least stay solvent.

There are many traders Technical and fundamental who cant turn a profit.
They are too hung up on the What (mechanics---value investing---breakout trading---mean reversion) than the Why (what you do---how ever you do it ) a method could have a chance to be/will be profitable.

I think in large part most people try something and if they don't get instant results they toss it out and try and find the next method. They end up searching for something that doesn't exist, usually sold in book form. What I see the successful TA and FA guys on here as having in common is that they picked one method and stuck with it.

If you check out the threads started by ducati, it's pretty clear which camp he/she sits in...

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/search.php?searchid=942627

The only thing missing would appear to be tea leaves.

And to keep this on topic, I see a trapazoid forming in the XAO with a small sun bear dancing on top of it...

 

[sinner]

Well you'd expect in a screaming Bull market he'd at least stay solvent.

Value performance is directly correlated to the dispersion between value performance and growth performance. That is to say, you can and often do suffer a large drawdown in value portfolios during a "screaming Bull market".

As an example, Buffett took a ~40% drawdown during the tech boom. Does that make his portfolio style incorrect? Should he have liquidated his holdings in profitable value stocks and purchased shares in "growth" companies like Pets.com or Geocities like everyone else?

From June 30, 1998 to February 29, 2000, Berkshire lost 44% of its market value

 

[McLovin]

As an example, Buffett took a ~40% drawdown during the tech boom. Does that make his portfolio style incorrect? Should he have liquidated his holdings in profitable value stocks and purchased shares in "growth" companies like Pets.com or Geocities like everyone else?

The SP of Berky went down, the book value of the businesses in BRK didn't.

 

[tech/a]

I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
A sign a change of sentiment is very near.

Chart indicates that's the case.
One last gasp in it possibly before its down to wave 4 of 5
Looking for that last bullish push of exhaustion (UP).

Click to expand.

 

[qldfrog]

my own "system" today switched on its "prepare for the storm" mode,
The system is not mature enough to be fully trusted but I will be extra careful from now on
(some key inpouts are EMA/MA of XAOA based on optimised run valid for the last 20y or so, in case you ask...)
DYOR but be warry.

 

[CanOz]

Our volume trend is continuing, i guess we can now say we have divergence on our indicator too...

CanOz

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Our volume trend is continuing, i guess we can now say we have divergence on our indicator too...

CanOz

As I said earlier on another thread, XAO may tank in May, to the beginnings of a new bull.

Your chart indicates great care is required at present.

Thanks.

gg

 

[chops_a_must]

I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
A sign a change of sentiment is very near.

Chart indicates that's the case.
One last gasp in it possibly before its down to wave 4 of 5
Looking for that last bullish push of exhaustion (UP).

Click to expand.

View attachment 51314

Hi Tech.

What is PAV?

It could be forming a reverse pennant, which have been pretty good at precipitating falls.

More thoughts in the banter thread.

 

[tech/a]

PAV is one of these.



As you maybe aware PAV has been working hard on his discretionary trading in the Hypothetical
trading thread.
He approached me for help---and despite my "Ill never Mentor" anyone I have been working with PAV this year on a portfolio not only covering entries/exits but most importantly Trade and portfolio management an area I felt needed attention---not only for PAV but every serious Trader/Investor Here.

Pav will tell you how its been.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I think if I had a short position, I'd be holding on.

I expect today we will finish at 5082, (according to trend line).

The big downwards swoops tend to come after a lower low has been formed and we don't have that yet.

 

[Sean K]

I'm noticing many stocks closing out of my discretionary system I'm trading with PAV.
Also fewer triggering and even fewer prospects.
A sign a change of sentiment is very near.

Chart indicates that's the case.
One last gasp in it possibly before its down to wave 4 of 5
Looking for that last bullish push of exhaustion (UP).

Click to expand.

View attachment 51314

So, EW has called a bottom back in Mar or so 09?

 

[rnr]

For those interested in divergence!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

For those interested in divergence!

View attachment 51336

Interesting chart, especially for me the Parabolic SAR.

Can you whack an RSI on to it and repost.

And remember we are trending, so, be careful about your conclusions.

I must say I cannot see divergence on volume/price.

An ascending triangle does catch my eye though.

As always I would advise to watch price and volume.

gg

 

[pavilion103]

PAV is one of these.

View attachment 51330

As you maybe aware PAV has been working hard on his discretionary trading in the Hypothetical
trading thread.
He approached me for help---and despite my "Ill never Mentor" anyone I have been working with PAV this year on a portfolio not only covering entries/exits but most importantly Trade and portfolio management an area I felt needed attention---not only for PAV but every serious Trader/Investor Here.

Pav will tell you how its been.

It has been of huge benefit.
I am grateful for the tremendous opportunity and I have been diligent in saving every chart (including trade management) and every piece of advice in my trading files.

The portfolio itself has performed very strongly and Tech's knowledge has been something that I have benefited from greatly.

 

[rnr]

Interesting chart, especially for me the Parabolic SAR.

Can you whack an RSI on to it and repost.

And remember we are trending, so, be careful about your conclusions.

I must say I cannot see divergence on volume/price.

An ascending triangle does catch my eye though.

As always I would advise to watch price and volume.

gg

Hi GG,

The attached chart is as submitted above (minus comments on Bullish Hidden Divergence) with an RSI (Close,14) whacked on as requested. Given the previous chart didn't include an indicator to gauge divergence then perhaps the divergence will now be more obvious (i.e. Price v's Indicator)!

Oh, some bad news, the "Parabolic SAR" is a 30 period weighted moving average, which given the chart snap posted and lack of labels you would not have known.



rnr

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Hi GG,

The attached chart is as submitted above (minus comments on Bullish Hidden Divergence) with an RSI (Close,14) whacked on as requested. Given the previous chart didn't include an indicator to gauge divergence then perhaps the divergence will now be more obvious (i.e. Price v's Indicator)!

Oh, some bad news, the "Parabolic SAR" is a 30 period weighted moving average, which given the chart snap posted and lack of labels you would not have known.

View attachment 51337

rnr

Thanks rnr,

I see your point about the divergence now.

Thanks mate, I'll compute,

gg

 

[tech/a]

I like to see some confluence
The XJO and DJIA.

Click to expand.

 

[notting]

Stating the obvious for the unschooled -

I would have liked to see a little less conviction in the buying on Friday, if I was looking for a interim top, noting the high close and in particular the volume on the XJO.

And the divergence on the 21st almost looks like a computer glitch more than a reflection of exhaustion, I know it's there but just seems a bit aggressive.

 

[nulla nulla]

Todays market reaction to the Cyprus bailout requirement of a 10% levy on bank deposits is like Henny Penny running arround squawking "the sky is falling, the sky is falling".

Lets face it, Cyprus has a GDP and population lower than Tasmania. The wiikipedia stats for Cyprus are as follows:

GDP $24.949 billion (nominal, 2011 est.)[3]
$23.728 billion (PPP, 2011 est.)[3]
GDP growth −3.3% (Q4 2012 est.)[4]
GDP per capita $30,571 (nominal, 2011 est.)[3]
$29,074 (PPP, 2011 est.)[3]
GDP by sector agriculture 2.3%, industry 16.4%, services 81.2% (2011 est.)
Inflation (CPI) 1.6% (February 2013)[5]
Population
below poverty line 23.5% (0.2 million) at risk of poverty or social exclusion (2011)[6]
Gini coefficient 29 (2005)
Labour force 414,100 (2011 est.)



Anyone realisticly expect a correction (downward) from this point or a recovery?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Depending on where you draw your lows, we now either have a lower low or are about to form one.