XAO Technical Analysis

nunthewiser · 9 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

ThingyMajiggy said:
congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out

lol ya reckon ?..

i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash instead of accolades

Good to see tech posting his stuff here tho.Good to see a mix up of opinions.

tech/a · 9 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

jonojpsg said:
Does that mean it's likely to turn on the 50% and follow your last line down? Forgive me for my ignorance

Its an area to watch from here to 4450 is where there could be a possible return to the bears.

tech, what are the red, green and blue centipedes on that chart?

congrats by the way, looks like you're well and truly into guru status around here, let me know when the mugs are out

Its a Trend following Proprietary indicator from Tradeguider.
I have a suspicion its a moving average of parabolic SAR. In fact I'm sure it is as you can alter the periodicy---its currently 20.

Guru.
No I'm just being pro active and giving the pundits a duck to shoot. I think "Some" of us enjoy each others posts.
Analysis will be proven correct or in correct.
When its right you collect the cash and look guru.
When it fails you give back some cash and turn back to Duck!

If you bare all then your going to be fair game! Thats fine I dont mind the good the bad and the ugly---wether people admit it or not thats exactly how their trading goes as well as my own.

Impressive, following on from other posts of yours.

Is that a Duck whistle I hear?

ThingyMajiggy · 9 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
lol ya reckon ?..

i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash instead of accolades

Good to see tech posting his stuff here tho.Good to see a mix up of opinions.

Just going by others reactions in this thread

tech/a said:
Its an area to watch from here to 4450 is where there could be a possible return to the bears.

Its a Trend following Proprietary indicator from Tradeguider.
I have a suspicion its a moving average of parabolic SAR. In fact I'm sure it is as you can alter the periodicy---its currently 20.

Guru.
No I'm just being pro active and giving the pundits a duck to shoot. I think "Some" of us enjoy each others posts.
Analysis will be proven correct or in correct.
When its right you collect the cash and look guru.
When it fails you give back some cash and turn back to Duck!

If you bare all then your going to be fair game! Thats fine I dont mind the good the bad and the ugly---wether people admit it or not thats exactly how their trading goes as well as my own.

Sounds like TG

Fair enough, I know you can trade well, the responses around here just amuse me thats all As you were, good luck and good trading

nunthewiser · 9 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

My post may have come out wrong.

I respect and have a look at opinions/analysis provided by tech/a here , there are others i also watch for their posts on market related topics.

There is a lot here i dont even bother reading when it comes to market postings/discussions.

Its good to see how different traders are reading the market.

The agreement and suckjob posts bore me to tears.

its not techs fault he attracts many of these along the way .

nulla nulla · 10 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

The xao has bounced this week, following on from the International markets. However, it is hard to believe that we will see a big enough return of investor confidence in the market to lift the xao above 4650.
With the ongoing problems emerging in Europe, the attempts by China to slow their pace of growth and the ever increasing debt balloon in the USA, it is realisticaly more likely that 4550 will be the upper level in a continuing downward channel.

brty · 11 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Nun,

i can see Brty quietly grinning collecting the cash

You will have to change that to collected. I exited my positions on Friday afternoon. Probably a bit early after Fridays action in the US, but that is usual for me.

Some positions were not performing nearly as well as originally anticipated, and I exited flat, like OST, that looks terrible for a long.

Other positions like OSH, much better, yet they seemed to be reaching short term resistance. (I missed STO )

The XAO is nothing but a combination of all the stocks in it, when they separately give a good signal, it is often a turning point, as was the case last week. Where we are now the picture is different, the odds of sideways action, further rises or sudden falls are all as likely as each other, so for now I'm out, waiting for the next signal of high probability.

brty

tech/a · 14 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

I like to be out there.
Short FTSE
The stop is at 5262
Entry 5243
This has relevence to XJO tommorow

nunthewiser · 14 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

FWIW.

I alos am expecting a downturn from here but have not acted in a "short" position sense.

I have however exited my long ST positions as mentioned entered a few posts back.

I could be wrong and miss out on a few bucks.

tech/a · 17 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Went short again from 4406.The signal was pretty clear on 14/7,15/7 and 16/7 (grouped together.)
Plus the Triple Top.

4449 on the SPI to boot.
Just the single contract.

professor_frink · 17 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech, nun,

nice work gents

Tech, you still have the FTSE as well as the SPI short?

tech/a · 17 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

professor_frink said:
tech, nun,

nice work gents

Tech, you still have the FTSE as well as the SPI short?

Closed the FTSE.
First time Id traded it not sure about the contract so closed it out for no other reason.
Made a few quid but ---

professor_frink · 17 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Closed the FTSE.
First time Id traded it not sure about the contract so closed it out for no other reason.
Made a few quid but ---

Cheers tech.

Good luck with the short

RazzaDazzla · 19 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

So straight lower from here?

Or

A bounce, back towards recent highs then down from there?

Arguments, comments, charts for and against either/neither of these?

BNECBD_DayTrader · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

No clear direction atm

tech/a · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
No clear direction atm

I think its pretty clear longer term

Currently its still in a bearish down trend that hasnt changed and its certainly not showing that its near altering that.
We are seeing lower highs and lower lows.
So my analysis remain bearish until proven otherwise.

If your day trading then your----having fun.

ginar · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I think its pretty clear longer term

Currently its still in a bearish down trend that hasnt changed and its certainly not showing that its near altering that.
We are seeing lower highs and lower lows.
So my analysis remain bearish until proven otherwise.

If your day trading then your----having fun.

About as clear as mud really ... double bottom daily late may / early july with a swing top that equalled consolidation highs of 13 may . testing the TLR from 15 april last few days with a week of whips so far . I can currently build a case for both biases longer term from here so its not that cut and dried in my mind . reference lows are 4th july with reference highs july 16 hod . whether this current upthrust is counter or not is not determined at this stage as the channel still holds .... it certainly is a dynamic beast atm

explod · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

ginar said:
About as clear as mud really ... double bottom daily late may / early july with a swing top that equalled consolidation highs of 13 may . testing the TLR from 15 april last few days with a week of whips so far . I can currently build a case for both biases longer term from here so its not that cut and dried in my mind . reference lows are 4th july with reference highs july 16 hod . whether this current upthrust is counter or not is not determined at this stage as the channel still holds .... it certainly is a dynamic beast atm

Good chart ginar. We have lower highs that if not beached in the current move will see the market drop further. 6 month Dow shows the same thing and that in fact, the move is failing. End of this week could be decider

ginar · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

bit closer and we live above the 5day 50 so far today with it providing support , i dont like to see price above this level after i get crossover , can indicate a weaker trend especially since we did challenge 5 day lows . the 5 day 50 is again trending up which generally doesnt bode well for trend change sticking . key levels marked on charts . still looks a coin toss

BNECBD_DayTrader · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

The market will go where it wants to. Every time frame on the chart will look great in hindsight.

ginar · 21 July 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

BNECBD_DayTrader said:
The market will go where it wants to. Every time frame on the chart will look great in hindsight.

comments like that are one of the reasons im reluctant to ever post on any australian forum . im not going to try and prove you wrong , im just going back into the cupboard and continue on with my trading in peace

good luck to all

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