XAO Technical Analysis

Trembling Hand · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Will be interesting to see if we follow the Dow or the UK and Germany today.

The Materials sector held up OK in the US especially after the strong Europe. So they might do relatively OK today but Macquarie Bank has said today that the credit problems in the States has hit one of its funds. So the credit mess is starting to show up in the Aussies wealth management sector. And the Financials have been in a down trend since May, smart money out of them a long time ago!!
Would like a nice panic hit down to flush out the last of the weak longs. Think that three day hit was to fast for most to get out, think many are still desperately hoping for a bounce. Not to mention bring in some late short players to squeeze later.

Trembling Hand · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Smells a bit panicky out there today. Financials getting poll-axed.
I'm sure everyone is pulling up charts looking for support? Hope we don't bounce in the next couple of days. Will be just an opportunity to get short again. Think while we are down here might as well wash out everyone. A good old fashion capitulation is what we need early next week like we got on 14th of June 06. Then we will have a new game to play. Squeeze the in to late shorts.

Awesomandy · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
Would like a nice panic hit down to flush out the last of the weak longs.

I closed out a few positions this morning, actually. May be it's time to re-evaluate where I put my stop losses/profit stops. I'm still pretty new at this - I was lucky enough not to have much money on the market during the past correction periods.

powerkoala · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

How low we will go ?
before 12pm, XAO still in -90 area.... but now, it goes lower and lower.
currently at -137 and still going down.
I guess our market is really at the panic state now.

gfresh · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Anybody would think the banks are about to go out of business.. when they'll probably be soon annnouncing record profits.

XJO just about to breach the 6000 mark edit.. bye 6000

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Yep, fear is winning. Just as likely the US will have some ++ earning results tomorrow and we will bounce. On the other hand......time to have some equity to pick up some bargains shortly. Maybe.

On the XAO alone, 6000 ish support, which is also around about the 200 d ma, which is likely to be a cushion.

tech/a · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Why is it fear?
Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?

powerkoala · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Yep, fear is winning. Just as likely the US will have some ++ earning results tomorrow and we will bounce. On the other hand......time to have some equity to pick up some bargains shortly. Maybe.

On the XAO alone, 6000 ish support, which is also around about the 200 d ma, which is likely to be a cushion.

That's mean we ONLY have another 45 point to go.
Phew..
This really looks bad coz banks got hammered.
Time to go for long lunch

dj_420 · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

market seems to have dropped into a freefall

look at low for JML, absolute panick selling IMO

Trembling Hand · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

dj_420 said:
market seems to have dropped into a freefall

look at low for JML, absolute panick selling IMO

Think we are now getting a lot of margin call selling but no fear yet. Thats a couple of days away. I'm guessing.

Sean K · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Why is it fear?
Why is it not common sense business,taking notice of Fundamental catalysts?

LOL. That's a joke right?

springhill · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

OMG the market is dropping faster than Jenna Jamesons underpants!!!

aaronphetamine · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

The market is dropping faster than your mothers skirt when the mail man comes around.

GreatPig · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

To put it a bit more in perspective, we've currently just lost the last four month's gains. And given that three months of that was mostly sideways, you could say it's essentially just one month's worth of gains.

The bottom of the channel each of the earlier main corrections reached is currently around 5800 (XAO). If it significantly breaches that, then it will have fallen out of the channel it's been in since early 2003.

Then I'll start wondering if it's a bear market. After that, my longer-term trend line since the 1987 crash is still down around 4200.

It's also interesting to look at where the three main Fib levels fall in the current run up from 2003. They just happen to line up pretty well with each of the three main corrections back to the bottom of the channel we've had since then.

And if the market does keep falling down to those Fib levels, my longer-term trend line (the blue one) may just meet the falling prices somewhere between the 38.2% one and the 50% one.

Or we could be pushing through 7000 by Christmas...

Cheers,
GP

GreatPig · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

And if we look at the Fib levels for the run up since the last main correction a year-odd ago, again they line up quite nicely with the three mini-corrections during that period (although the Feb one was large enough to line up with pretty much any value ).

Cheers,
GP

tech/a · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
LOL. That's a joke right?

No.

Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
Once they are gone then you need to sell to whoever sees value at the price your selling at. If they dont see it as current value then a large chunk of support disappears.
They feed off of the public when they least expect it---TOPS when selling
BOTTOMS when buying.

chops_a_must · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
No.

Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
Once they are gone then you need to sell to whoever sees value at the price your selling at. If they dont see it as current value then a large chunk of support disappears.
They feed off of the public when they least expect it---TOPS when selling
BOTTOMS when buying.

Yep. "God" knows why anyone would have been buying financials in the last 4-5 months...

Trembling Hand · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
No.

Many large player (funds) were selling through June.
These guys supply support volume AND buying volume when bullish periods are in force.
Once they are gone then you need to sell to whoever sees value at the price your selling at. If they dont see it as current value then a large chunk of support disappears.
They feed off of the public when they least expect it---TOPS when selling
BOTTOMS when buying.

Yep in hind site i was writing about that increased volume on declining stocks during June and start of July while we where nudging highs. Funny thing I was starting to get bullish a week out from the top as the XFJ looked to be turning around. But was just a trap.

nomore4s · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

Having a crack at the 6000 mark

Nearly 190 points down for the day, wow

powerkoala · 1 August 2007

Re: XAO Analysis

I am glad it's all over for today.
Now is time to count how much $$$ we lost
Never imagine, this nightmare happens again.
Last time on May 2005.

XAO Technical Analysis

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