XAO Technical Analysis

ThingyMajiggy · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Indicators are not totally useless. They can be handy some of the time but probably the bigger issue is that a lot of the people using them are useless. Like most methods - EW, tapereading, price action, dartboard.

TH, I don't understand what you mean here, what do you mean "Like most methods...."? They are all useless? What is useless about the people using them?

BTW, I'm not disagreeing, just wondering what you mean if you say "indicators are not useless" but then finish off saying "like most methods"?

Trembling Hand · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

ThingyMajiggy said:
TH, I don't understand what you mean here, what do you mean "Like most methods...."? They are all useless? What is useless about the people using them?

BTW, I'm not disagreeing, just wondering what you mean if you say "indicators are not useless" but then finish off saying "like most methods"?

I'm saying peoples use of the tools are wrong. People become religiously attached to methods believing they are the source of success and just like religion defend them to the death. Without ever considering their failures. Without considering the times that their success is fitted to their experience recalling the right pattern at the right time rather than the pattern being right. Subconsciously or consciously recalling the right process at the right time due to building up a big database of experience & patterns.

My thinking is moving more and more to the yes you can be right more than wrong, yes you can time the market - even to the minutes, yes they are chaotic but certainly not random. Its not TA its not FA its EA - Experienced Analysis (recalling the right type of analysis/pattern at the right time).

Have a look at the H & S thread. At last count 23% correct!! FFS!! Thats a disaster. Have a look at OWGs near on 8 months of incorrect calls based on EW!! F Me!! Its not the method its the users poor application of fitting the wrong pattern at the wrong time.

People learn patterns/traditional TA (H&S, EW, Double tops etc) then go and look for these patterns in markets. Thats a Farkin insane approach. That's like teaching doctors disease cures before they know anatomy 101 or learn diagnostic skills. No other "professional" learning development is as stuffed up and ar$e about as trading - and the results are there to prove it

beamstas · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

TH im not arguing that Rsi is useless
Im arguing that going back over past charts and fitting an RSI over it so that it shows that it "picked the bottom" is useless and a waste of time.

motorway · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
I'm saying peoples use of the tools are wrong. People become religiously attached to methods believing they are the source of success and just like religion defend them to the death. Without ever considering their failures. Without considering the times that their success is fitted to their experience recalling the right pattern at the right time rather than the pattern being right. Subconsciously or consciously recalling the right process at the right time due to building up a big database of experience & patterns.

My thinking is moving more and more to the yes you can be right more than wrong, yes you can time the market - even to the minutes, yes they are chaotic but certainly not random. Its not TA its not FA its EA - Experienced Analysis (recalling the right type of analysis/pattern at the right time).

Have a look at the H & S thread. At last count 23% correct!! FFS!! Thats a disaster. Have a look at OWGs near on 8 months of incorrect calls based on EW!! F Me!! Its not the method its the users poor application of fitting the wrong pattern at the wrong time.

People learn patterns/traditional TA (H&S, EW, Double tops etc) then go and look for these patterns in markets. Thats a Farkin insane approach. That's like teaching doctors disease cures before they know anatomy 101 or learn diagnostic skills. No other "professional" learning development is as stuffed up and ar$e about as trading - and the results are there to prove it

Tend to agree
and why i say that the universe of what should be tested is very small compared to what is

All those patterns and shapes and waves ( particular ones like elliots )
are not important

what is important are general patterns
of starting & stopping
of expectations changing
stillness and movement]
trending and consolidation
etc

To worry about Nr7 or ROC or RSI

What is xyz doing right NOW
How is what it is doing changing
etc
Objective identification of general patterns of
up down faster slower sideways

price consolidates trends

here is a very good PDF

on Expectations Perceptions
anticipation feedback & feed-forward

very worthwhile to read

It is a easy read The Hot Dog Story that opens is very good

http://www.zyen.com/Activities/Even...s Rather Than Rules v1.4 - for email v1.0.pdf

This from another source is Key

what most people tend to forget is that buying and selling a stock mainly means dealing with other people. When you buy a stock, it means that you find it "cheap". It also means that someone else finds it "expensive". This means that the concepts of "cheap" and "expensive" had better be measured against the group of traders who are active in the stock instead of against some other measure. Why is this? The simple answer is that on the stock market, we are not trading "reality", but rather the perception of that reality. Therefore, instead of talking about "cheap" or "expensive", we'd better talk about "expectation". Pascal Willian

What do trading ranges/ consolidations/ congestions build ?

EXPECTATIONS
Not only hands But minds are changed
FEEDBACK + FEEDFORWARD

& Expectations are probably all the reality there is ( and here the golden key is scale ..scale is what needs to be TESTED )

motorway

Dark1975 · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

I enjoyed reading the past threads of recent with E/W and past price action expressed as an RSI.But looking at the past seven consecutive gains on the dow(besides friday -36.43)The lack of movement on the xao,I'm comparing the stochastic view on the xao to the dow.
In the next few weeks im predicting a correction on the xao to 4100-4150Comparing past performances in the month of september,I cant see the 4084 being broken as key resistance point.Then the bulls will regather again to move towards 4900 before december.

The stochastic view is well overbought for the short term,Considering how much our market follows the dow(hot air balloon),The stochastic slow on the dow is changing.
I think we know the bulls are in control in the market at present,But the bears will come out to play in my view as a short term

$20shoes · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
$20shoes I agree but beamstas will not. The obvious response to your comment for the price action only guys is you don't need RSI or any other indicator to tell you we are "oversold" when the Index gets halved in a year!!

And that a bounce is due after the leverage is cleaned out and acceleration down slows.

Indicators are not totally useless. They can be handy some of the time but probably the bigger issue is that a lot of the people using them are useless. Like most methods - EW, tapereading, price action, dartboard.

Exception being Gann which well all know is a fraud, the Gannist continually prove that for us.

Thanks TH. What you mention is definitely the type of thinking that traders should be conditioned to read from market movements. I guess when you instinctively know how to read price action, a lot of indicators simply become unnecessary and even superfluous.

It seems like a lot of people, including myself, get their education ass-about and then spend the next few years wondering why their indicators aren't cutting the mustard in the real world.

You kinda reach a point where you eat humble pie, and start trying to "unknow" all those things you thought you knew.

Boggo · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

I am using the DOW as a possible guide at the moment.

The chart below assumes that we are in a Wave 3 and potential targets for that W.3 might be as indicated on the chart below.
Note also an area of potential resistance within the target area.

Just my

(click to expand)

micksof · 30 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Its not the method its the users poor application of fitting the wrong pattern at the wrong time.

You can say that again bro!

swm79 · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Multiples don't look very attractive at 5000 by the end of the year (which is what some people have been predicting)

bearing in mind - the US is the dog and we're the tail - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job

Dark1975 · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

swm79 said:
Multiples don't look very attractive at 5000 by the end of the year (which is what some people have been predicting)

bearing in mind - the US is the dog and we're the tail - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job

Yeah the dow reminds me of a hot air balloon ready to pop!Well really has the information from wall street ever looked good?Just a rally im following at the moment.But slowly selling out of postion,at the moment only 30% of my portfolio is in the market(not much faith in this pack of cards at the moment).
Be more confident to see a correction.

swm79 · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Dark1975 said:
Yeah the dow reminds me of a hot air balloon ready to pop!Well really has the information from wall street ever looked good?Just a rally im following at the moment.But slowly selling out of postion,at the moment only 30% of my portfolio is in the market(not much faith in this pack of cards at the moment).
Be more confident to see a correction.

i'm only going for stock i truely believe in, undervalued and ripe for a re-rating but there's not much of that out there at all at the moment. especially not in the ASX200

theasxgorilla · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

swm79 said:
bearing in mind - the US is the dog and we're the tail - the US consumer (representing 70% of US GDP) has lost another 1% of real disposable income in July and nearly 10% of Americans are out of a job

It's a rather long dog though, and somewhere in the middle is China and it's however many trillion of USD reserves and a will spend them (in our resources sector).

swm79 · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

granted, but they're (China) not buying THAT much at the moment... it almost seems like their poised waiting to strike... is that why they started talking to RIO again - repairing relations before another down trend and then another attempted take over???

is it because the US 10-year bond market (which is down at 3.45% again - pricing in a correction of the market) is telling them a different story to that of Wall Street... soon one is going to have to correct itself

bowman · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

A trend channel of the rally so far.

The vertical lines?

Ummmm, I had a few drinks on the weekend and drew in the days of the full moon.

skyQuake · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

bowman said:
A trend channel of the rally so far.

The vertical lines?

Ummmm, I had a few drinks on the weekend and drew in the days of the full moon.

lol @ the stoch. Overbought? Short here Jkjk

My experience with trend channels is that they break to the side its trending, before correcting savagely and forming a countertrend.

Have a look at old xjo charts.

ThingyMajiggy · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
My experience with trend channels is that they break to the side its trending, before correcting savagely and forming a countertrend.

Haven't found this, but you probably have more experience than I do

To me, today being the last day of august, makes the monthly look weak to me, high volume, narrow spread up bar, would expect it to be tested or some sort of down move from here- september not known for being too good a month usually either.

Just a thought

Timmy · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

swm79 said:
is it because the US 10-year bond market (which is down at 3.45% again - pricing in a correction of the market) is telling them a different story to that of Wall Street... soon one is going to have to correct itself

Agree - has been very worthwhile paying attention to the US bonds lately, wrt the Chinese mkt.

nunthewiser · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Timmy said:
Agree - has been very worthwhile paying attention to the US bonds lately, wrt the Chinese mkt.

wrt ?

white_goodman · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
wrt ?

with respect to???

Dark1975 · 31 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Im just slipping in to my bear suit now,Going on top of my bull suit for this month.

XAO Technical Analysis

ThingyMajiggy

Trembling Hand

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beamstas

motorway

Dark1975

$20shoes

Boggo

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micksof

swm79

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theasxgorilla

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bowman

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