XAO Technical Analysis

[Timmy]

Re: XAO Analysis

OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).

This is quite pleasant, let us keep it this way please.

 

[$20shoes]

Re: XAO Analysis

I was looking back over some indicators which I tend not to use but it's interesting to see just how effective they can be sometimes - a descending wedgie on two longer term RSIs picked the bottom to the week.

Not sure if its clear on the chart but we're playing out an ascending wedge here. I'm still bullish to the 4900 mark. Market seems to be softly, softly right now..might limp higher more than anything volatile.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

I was looking back over some indicators which I tend not to use but it's interesting to see just how effective they can be sometimes - a descending wedgie on two longer term RSIs picked the bottom to the week.

!!!!

Picked the bottom? Mate thats some terribly flawed analysis.

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).

This is quite pleasant, let us keep it this way please.

Agree 100%!!!

Thanks tech/a and the others who posted their CONSTRUCTIVE analysis.

Just like mathematical probability, technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to predict the future based on historical data. Some patterns DO repeat themselves, not always exactly, but if we can pick up on a repeating pattern early enough and position ourselves correctly then we can profit handsomely!

I like the count on tech/a’s first chart because there are some Fibonacci relationships in there that suggest that it might be the correct one.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just like mathematical probability, technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to predict the future based on historical data.

Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.

I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Just for Kenna's and Muppet.
.

I want to be in the crowd of Muppets,with nothing to add but plenty to pontificate.

OK - 10 consecutive posts without anyone being called a name (specifically Muppet).

This is quite pleasant, let us keep it this way please.

Agree 100%!!!

Thanks tech/a and the others who posted their CONSTRUCTIVE analysis.

.

mmmmmmm

intresting

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.

I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.

I agree TH, T/A has nothing to do with prediction imo. When we take a trade - no matter the pattern or the analysis to enter the trade - the outcome is unknown.

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting. I don't think you can say that. If the prediction part was true then that would show up in win/loss ratio of said analysis.

I'm not so sure that can be mathematically/statistically proven.

Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?

Google define:technical analysis

 

[nomore4s]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?

Google define:technical analysis

To me T/A is about trying to reveal the intentions of others and trying to get on the right side of those intentions.

No form of T/A works without good money & trade management, this to me speaks volumes about how T/A is best used in trading. If you think you're predicting anything with T/A you're kidding yourself imo.

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

technical analysis is an ATTEMPT to ANTICIPATE the future based on historical data

Think thats more to the point.
However Chris's chart is no more than a grapghical account of past price action expressed as an RSI. If you have a good look at the mathamatics behind it you'll see it has no predictive value in the math itself.

However the pattern Wedge and or Divergence has some Anticipatory value.
Best used with other analytical tools.(Just like E/W).

 

[micksof]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, really looking forward to your input mick, even though you're a forum newbie. You must have been watching for a while and are interested in EW. What's your call for the current move?

Well, might take us a while on how to learn to post charts.

Let me see know what can I tell you. Firstly I am very directional trader and so the trend is now up and riding with it. How long will the current move last? Well Kennarico, I am not that good, but I think it will last into next year, at present I am banking on April to May and between 4960-5200 before we head south again.

I am heavily invested in Gold ETF's and Gold miners as I am very bullish Gold over the next 10 year. Happy now?

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, I did say "attempt", but if you disagree then how would you define technical analysis?

Google define:technical analysis

The speedometer in my car does not predict anything by itself



But it is still very useful
and much can be anticipated from it
and many conclusions drawn

particularly useful when going past speed cameras for instance
Keeping in harmony

For identifying
You name it turning points
trends
consolidations
reversals
exhaustion

BEHAVIOURS

Everything builds bit by bit
then happens ALL at once


motorway

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

However Chris's chart is no more than a grapghical account of past price action expressed as an RSI. If you have a good look at the mathamatics behind it you'll see it has no predictive value in the math itself.

Don't you mean $20shoes's chart?

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

Don't you mean $20shoes's chart?

Yes sorry.

 

[motorway]

Re: XAO Analysis

Here is The ( & I mean THE there is only one )
Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )

It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice )

march 2009 would seem to be as significant as march 2003

Change of behavior with the last sequence of columns
( watch the down waves when looking to go long )



What do I mean by beyond manipulation


That there is no significant factors of a larger scale
that can impinge and cause dicontinuities

Not in the way that movements on this chart can cause on eg a 50 pt chart..

This chart would give more confirmation
when the current "step back" pushes up to 4200
( thrust after reversal ?)


It could pull back down one last time ( before moving higher to 4200 ) and make a higher low
( still have seen the bottom )
setting up a very good Buy point
with a Secondary Bottom, note straddling the Diagonal ,,

BUT beyond manipulation means such normal confirmation
is not a usual consideration--> With no larger scale at work-->
What is (possibly ) more likely is that the chart pauses and corrects in time instead of price.
As the hand ( primary trend ) holding the pendulum moves higher
Even though the swings ( the fluctuations ) do not..


motorway

moved to 160 pt chart

This chart is in full Bull MODE
and could well move to the top of the arrow ( old support there to be regained / new resistance proves )

Now again so far it corrects only in time ( Yes these charts actually are the only type that reveal Time...

But under the surface at the 80 pt level
there is energy being transferred (= work done )
and the "happen all at once" will be revealed at this level
( actually at 60 pt chart )

The moves on the 160 pt chart are 4 times as significant as the moves on the 80 pt chart BUT--- That is when it is moving..

KEY POINT the cycles of the market though infinite
are aperiodic = They can all be in the same time frame at the same time
or be in totally separate time frames at the same time..

Only some aspects of aperiodic waves can be reliably used to identify them

It still looks like a BULL MARKET
and those who wait for corrections in price in Bull Markets ?

Use the 60/80 pt chart to manage risk
and time for the next move
least correction in Time becomes a correction in Price


watch out for supply entering

motorway

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

how would you define technical analysis?

Google define:technical analysis

Chris I do not need to define it. I do not need it to attemp to predict anything for me.

I use it to confirm my bias/subconscious so I can act on an uncertain outcome. I use it to stay in a winning trade or get out of a loser quickly. End of story.

That's why I always say learn how your market moves and don't waste endless time on TA.

I'll leave that to the paper trade guru's.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: XAO Analysis

I think I may have worked out a simple way on TA to decide whether this is a recent low on the xao heading north or a dcb.

I enclose a chart of the xao going back to 1980, a monthly.

I've drawn a trendline along the lows and then created a channel at the high of 1987.

I've then drawn a parallel line through the recent muppet high.

Channel analysis works on comparing channels of the same depth or multiples of.

As luck would have it the upper channel is twice the depth of the lower.

Thus I am unsure if recent price action signifies the end of the bear. Should prices retrace and kick off the 4400/4500 and then head north , I feel we can say goodbye to the bear.

Should prices fall back in to the lower channel then the xao is rooned.

gg

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

These are AGET generated wave counts and will not be to the liking of Elliott Purists.

It's one of the ugliest looking counts I've seen in a long time. Talk about forcing it in there.

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: XAO Analysis

looks to be still on track with original prediction
interesting the similarity between these 20 year charts and an overheated 1 min chart...mostly seems to find the middle in general ...half way between 3200 and 6800 could be a possibility

Very cool analysis Snakey.

Although I think that the "mean" ought to be a moving average of some kind. I think an MA is by nature adaptive, and that old data ought not be weighted as significantly as new. If you used a long-MA you might find that the despair phase has already completed, and now we're in the "oh $^%@ we over did it again" phase .

 

[tech/a]

Re: XAO Analysis

It's one of the ugliest looking counts I've seen in a long time. Talk about forcing it in there.

The daily is ugly.
Thats what you get when you use an algorithm to as you say force a count.The Weekly however looks far better.

Still has the same outcome.