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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
The daily is ugly.
Thats what you get when you use an algorithm to as you say force a count.The Weekly however looks far better.

Still has the same outcome.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3. As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields. Just a Simple Simon take on it.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
I use it to confirm my bias/subconscious so I can act on an uncertain outcome. I use it to stay in a winning trade or get out of a loser quickly. End of story.

That's why I always say learn how your market moves and don't waste endless time on TA.
Click to expand...
I agree with you about the importance of learning “how your market moves” and that’s what I thought EW analysis was all about - attempting to understand how the market moves so we can form an opinion on future market direction and get an edge over a simple coin toss when the time comes to enter the market.

We don’t all work in the same time frame and if your methodology involves your personal “bias/subconscious” as well as a different time frame, then what works for you may not work for someone else.

However, I think we probably agree that TA is only a small part of the methodology and that psychology and management are the major factors that determine the win/loss ratio of a particular methodology.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Jeez,

I thought I did a brilliant channel analysis today and nobody has commented about it, good or bad.

When my analysis comes to fruition I will make sure that I stick it to you "senior people" .

From a muppet.

Sincerely,

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Chris45 said:
However, I think we probably agree that TA is only a small part of the methodology and that psychology and management are the major factors that determine the win/loss ratio of a particular methodology.
Click to expand...

Luck
Is another
 
Re: XAO Analysis

beamstas said:
Luck
Is another
Click to expand...

Nothing Beats Timing



If the trend is UP BUY
If the Trend is DOWN SELL & WAIT

of course it helps to be able define THE TREND ( singular )

motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

beamstas said:
Luck = The Precursor
Timing = The Hindsight

Timing is backwards looking whilst luck will determine if your timing is correct.
Click to expand...

No if it is going down wait can you see on the XAO chart ( I posted )where & when it was going down ?

Can you see when it stopped going down ?
can you see when it started to go UP ?

ssshhh atm It is still going UP

OK so far NO hindsight..

It is not hindsight to identify (objectively )
What is the trend right NOW..

or Poetically the Season

ALWAYS ALWAYS plant in Spring

yes luck plays it's part
but you will need much less and what looks like LUCK
only looks so to those who didn't know any better than to plant in WINTER

motorway
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Na you have completely missed my point. I don't believe you should go to any market with a set of "rules" and then try and fit them to form your understanding.

I know its the basis for most peoples approach but......
 
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Agreed. Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3. As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields. Just a Simple Simon take on it.
Click to expand...

Odd waves 1,3,5 are trending waves.
corrective waves are even 2,4.
Wave 5 will always be higher/lower or equal to 3.
I think I remember reading somewhere that in some cases wave 5 wont reach wave 3--but could be wrong.

So then what then if price never makes it.
Then there will be an alternate count which will see wave 3 miraculously morph into wave 5

GG
Saw your chart but didnt think it very spectacular.---Sorry.
Only kidding 2x width of channel is a common technical measurement something I hadnt noticed.

Cheers
tech/a---Muppet caller.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


No worries mate.

gg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Agreed. Although I can't see a catalyst for how the W5 is going to get below the end of W3. As earnings in the big end of town have held up, and subsequently dividends, prices shall move up to moderate yields. Just a Simple Simon take on it.
Click to expand...

I agree and it is something the Perma bears are overlooking. Earnings so far have held up resonably well compared to the doom & gloom forecasts last year. The economy - especially in Australia & parts of Asia is still pretty good, I'm not seeing alot of hardship out there atm, life seems to be going on for the majority.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Odd waves 1,3,5 are trending waves.
corrective waves are even 2,4.
Wave 5 will always be higher/lower or equal to 3.
I think I remember reading somewhere that in some cases wave 5 wont reach wave 3--but could be wrong.
Click to expand...

Yes, thats correct. Remember, there are only 3-4 rules in EW and none of them say that W5 must exceed W3. As with everything not mapping to the EW rules, there are exceptions.

It was more a heads up for the less involved who might expect that the weekly count you posted is anticipating a move below the March lows. As you have already mentioned yourself on several occasions, EW should not be used in isolation. I find a cursory glace at reality to be useful from time to time .
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
!!!!

Picked the bottom? Mate thats some terribly flawed analysis.
Click to expand...

TH, are you squabbling over a pronoun?? Perhaps I should have said "a" bottom. That is some fetish you have there!!

Tech/A - no predictive value ?? My post from 26th Oct 08 -

I have placed a longer term view of the weekly RSI since '87.
i) you will notice that at (0), the RSI has failed to reach its lower trendline (may still), so a divergence is possibly forming. It is reaching a low it has never seen since and including '87.
ii) A Descending wedge at (1) suggests we are about to sharply correct back up from an oversold level we have never known since and including '87.

You guys crack me up with your "I've been around the blocks enough times to dismiss indicators" attitude. What the #@!& is EW if not a means to predict a target based on historical data you use to form a wave?? I can take almost any indicator - any indicator - and use this to predict future price action too. I can target off s/r, you can;t say that this is somehow incorrect or impure (just more smoothed)? Its all based on bloody maths and statistics and probabilities. Just because an indicator is backwards looking ( so is raw volume by the way) doesn't mean it cant serve a purpose. If that purpose id to define your edge and you say " I can't find an edge using backwards looking smooth ass indicators" then I would agree that they should perhaps not constitute the toolset you use to differ your approach to a market.

Still, I loved that clear breakout signal from the lows. I ain't seen nothing as simple and as clear as that.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Oh TH, I think I know where you're coming from -

you mean i'm using the tail to wag the dog?? lol TRUE yes and that is flawed, agreed. I was just meaning to highlight how in sync an indicator breakout was to the price action at the time - it was just a very clear signal - just wanted to share it...no biggy, and hindsight's not helping anyone!!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Shoes.
Analysis isn't Predicting anything its Anticipating a move.

Your wedge formation took a great deal of time to be confirmed and you could have been anticipating the analysis for sometime.In hindsite just like E/W all is crystal clear.Doesnt mean it is of no value.

I think the dismissal of indicators from my part comes from their impractical use in Discretionary trading trading oscillators in Realtime I have found to be far to slow and far to inaccurate.In Discretionary short term trading I'm looking for high win rates and lower/R/R. They can have a part to play in Systems trading where a repetition of technical characteristics return a positive expectancy.Here I look for Lower win rates and Higher R/R.

While it may seen like anticipation and prediction are similar they are streets apart.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


In hindsite this analysis is 100% accurate.
Will happen 100% of the time.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Fair points Tech. I don't really disagree. When you look back in time, as per most indicators, you have to consider whether you're forcing a signal to comply to a bias or position you hold, and indeed whether that indicator is really telling you "anything" at all. It's not perhaps assisting in getting you "inside" the market. This is hard to articulate, but you almost want to pare everything back until you are "inside the matrix" dealing with what is substantial, more than the noise we tend to create. On that note, I believe Motorway, with his P&F charts, and his simple yet elegant advice, may actually be inside the matrix .

I remember one pearl from Nick Radge (forgive me Nick, if I'm misquoting), but he said:

You might use an indicator to help get you into the market...you might need it to actually feel comfortable about taking a trade, but it's just a crutch. The market pays it no heed...you're probably using it to help you feel better about the position you just took. If you need a crutch to help you live with your decisions, then use it. But don't forget to treat it as nothing more than a crutch.

When i started in TA, I bought plenty of books on indicators - that paragraph above is all I really ever needed.

BTW, may have come across as overly hostile. Apologies on that front. I cite ASF and all the thousands of postings you guys write as the second biggest influence on my trading education.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes,

You even stated yourself that you were looking through some indicators and just happen to notice a certain RSI would have picked "A" or "The" bottom.

Im sure that if you go and curve fit enough you'll find a different RSI amount has "pedicted" (in hindsight) the next turn in the market.

How does this help you going forwards?

The fact is that this certain RSI combination has no more predictive power than any other random combination. The market didn't move becuase of the RSI, you have just fit it over what the market did and now you have a narration.

The 5th sitting of the 2nd meeting of the 3rd session of the 8th parliament of Uganda was on the 3rd of March, This also predicted the bottom of the market. This has as much predictive power as your falling wedge on the rsi.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Yes understand where you are coming from Beamstas. And its a good lesson to learn too!!
The only thing I will say ( i don't want to hijack this thread to discuss T/A), as the devil's advocate, is that, although they are in no way forward looking, a confluence of signals -be they backward looking indicators or other tools/data - can provide some great anticipatory evidence. We simply don't know whats going to happen tomorrow, but from what has transpired to the left of my screen, there is a "higher" probability of an occurrence than there may have been at some other point in the past.

In this way, one may say that on my XAO chart, and looking back, it had never been so oversold; that such a long term indication of a descending wedge might be used to try and time a powerful breakout, that we saw stopping volume at the bottom, etc etc. That is, although we don't have a predictive capability, we have our "crutch" that says "you know what, the risk/reward looks good right now" - I'll wait for the market to move. I'lll use my crutch to tell me I should be long right now and I'll manage my positions like a good little boy should.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes I agree but beamstas will not. The obvious response to your comment for the price action only guys is you don't need RSI or any other indicator to tell you we are "oversold" when the Index gets halved in a year!!

And that a bounce is due after the leverage is cleaned out and acceleration down slows.

Indicators are not totally useless. They can be handy some of the time but probably the bigger issue is that a lot of the people using them are useless. Like most methods - EW, tapereading, price action, dartboard.

Exception being Gann which well all know is a fraud, the Gannist continually prove that for us.
 
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