Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey kids,

Lol I am still fine. I've been trading around it. Obviously smashed in the head overall. I've been too lazy to update on the blogs. I've had a few more important things to deal with outside of trading. In any case, I'm down a fair bit as you have guessed. It is now time to see how this 1000 level plays out. I am guessing this market can go as high as 4370, anything post that and I am in a fair bit of trouble. I am guessing if overnight the US doesn't rally of manipulated consumer confidence data, I should be ok. 1000-1010 is definitely some heavy resistance. I was actually surprised for the first time during the last 3 weeks at the lack of selling last night at the 1000 level.

On a different topic, if you do want me to post here at all, I'd appreciated if my way of trading is not questioned. Firstly, I trade the way I trade because I am not afraid to lose all my money. If I am short, every day the market moves against me when the underlying situation has not changed, I only have more reason to be in that trade. Secondly, this is not a topic under Trading Strategies, in which case it would be on topic, but more so in the topic of discussing the market. I understand it would be a very happy moment for some of you to see my ideology to fail me (which is fine, I can understand that, people don't like having anything radially different, or something that they can view as stupid), but it is definitely off topic here. :) Lastly, the way I trade is based on my psychology. I guess I will blow up a few times in my life, and hopefully not end up with suicide as Livermore did, but at the end of the day, it is the way I want to play this game :)

Have fun,

Ivan

Ivant, there are those here who would like to see you blow up because they want to drag down anyone who succeeds or has an idea; there are those who would like to see you blow up cause it might teach u a lesson about averaging.
Personally I would prefer people learn and adapt without losing significant portions of capital. Enjoy your posts as they usually contain some well thought out ideas.

Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
Good luck and happy trading.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just so you know, I know I made a huge mistake of not covering when the market broke 955. I was leaning towards the market hitting 985 and maybe 1000 at that point. That hurt me. Or when the market broke 3180 which gave a breakout. 2 situations that really hurt me. Oh well, learn and move on :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ivant, there are those here who would like to see you blow up because they want to drag down anyone who succeeds or has an idea; there are those who would like to see you blow up cause it might teach u a lesson about averaging.
Personally I would prefer people learn and adapt without losing significant portions of capital. Enjoy your posts as they usually contain some well thought out ideas.

Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
Good luck and happy trading.

Lol well when I planned out my scenarios, this was the worst case scenario: second biggest rally in history at 46-8% (depends how you count it). The only one bigger was in 1938. I didn't see any major similarities between the current situation and 1938, so I thought this scenario was possible. However, when I went short, it didn't look like the S&P would break 930, and neither did it look like it would break 955. I've blown up twice in my life, but on smaller accounts. Ah well if this will be three, a great time to start over. I wish I had another 150k, I'd love to short Crude Oil at the 72 levels, and short the EUR/USD pair. Add a bit to my long VIX trade. AUD/USD at 85cents is a great fib level. This is such a great moment of trading opportunities.

Unfortunately, I have a slight disadvantage of not being purely a technical trader. I need to use technical analysis a lot more for my entries, which I have been working on, just not enough. I don't want to get into this argument with anyone, but the fundamentals in the US are horrible. In ASIA I get the feeling they are rather overstated. In any case, what a great opportunity to short the market for those who were not in!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I wish I had another 150k, I'd love to short Crude Oil at the 72 levels...

With all due respect, you probably would have had another 150k if you had have used proper money management and set stop losses. If you are happy with the risks you are taking, then so be it. But, there's this thing called opportunity loss and you're experiencing it right now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Having said that, most of us SPI traders are/were scalpers and think a 15 tick move is a huge move. Thus holding it a 100ts offside seems unfathomable.
Good luck and happy trading.

I would probably die holding spi overnight, and cry when a trade goes against me by 1%. I don't know how you manage to do it Ivant but that’s probably why I haven't traded 1k to 450k (or whatever it was).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

i may not agree with your strategys ie management , but do respect your honesty

may you catch a break

cheers ,
 
Re: XAO Analysis

On a different topic, if you do want me to post here at all, I'd appreciated if my way of trading is not questioned.

LOL. So lets get this right. ya wanna pimp yourself as a,

professional trader that has been trading for 8 years
then get ya nickers in a knot when other point out what you do ain't that "professional". :eek:

Number 1 rule in developing your internet guru status. When you make an internet claim expect to take heat on it. Unless you make it so obscure that people will glaze over it until after it happens. Just in case its wrong.

If you are unable to do that probably best to not put more than 2% of your guru status at risk on any one call. I call it "guru management" or GM.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nun, i think TH meant with this:

If you are unable to do that probably best to not put more than 2% of your guru status at risk on any one call. I call it "guru management" or GM.

today was the high for around 2% of the market for the next cupla days
;)

However if you are really confident, you can leverage your status and make bigger calls. Problem is you stand to lose a lot of status without proper GM.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nun, i think TH meant with this:



today was the high for around 2% of the market for the next cupla days
;)

However if you are really confident, you can leverage your status and make bigger calls. Problem is you stand to lose a lot of status without proper GM.

hahahahah

excellent stuff!

with this new post management knowledge ,i am now on the path to being a forum guru

thanks guys
 
Re: XAO Analysis

pay no heed , just acting the goose

to those concerned . sorry for disrupting any serious discussion

i had to bump this quote to remind myself this was a serious thread for serious dudes

as you were

apologies for all breaks in transmission yet again
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ok, srs discussion. Well i am 2% sure that..

ah screw it. Looks toppyyy. Major reversal in our miners today. Only one that held up was NCM which tends to be a contrarian indicator in my books.
Bank buying should be all but finished, volume is mostly done imo.
Whats important is seeing how much buying there is when prices come down again.

Can't have a recovery based on XNJ and and XDJ

Fwiw i got meself some really OTM puts today. Expecting some sharp downmoves for a bit of a vol play but no way am I holding to maturity.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Ok, srs discussion. Well i am 2% sure that..

ah screw it. Looks toppyyy. Major reversal in our miners today. Only one that held up was NCM which tends to be a contrarian indicator in my books.
Bank buying should be all but finished, volume is mostly done imo.
Whats important is seeing how much buying there is when prices come down again.

Can't have a recovery based on XNJ and and XDJ

Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.

May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes.

Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,
mexico-drug-money4.jpg
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.

May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes.

Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,
mexico-drug-money4.jpg

Do you toss and turn alot? I'd imagine the money is not very good for your back :p:

---------------

Leverage eh? Ok Today we see the high for the next 10 trading days followed by a feeble rally, followed by some consolidation. There :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Do you toss and turn alot? I'd imagine the money is not very good for your back :p:

---------------

Leverage eh? Ok Today we see the high for the next 10 trading days followed by a feeble rally, followed by some consolidation. There :)

Come on Skyquake - although the Internet guru game is not a zero sum game, we can all be winners. Only those that truly leverage up their guru capital with top and bottom calls to the minute achieve exceptional guru wealth.

May I remind punters my call was right on give or take a few Internet minutes.

Screen shot of my days guru's trade results,
mexico-drug-money4.jpg

Omg Amercian Dollars....that wil be all worthless one day :)

Thanks
MS
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Fwiw i got meself some really OTM puts today. Expecting some sharp downmoves for a bit of a vol play but no way am I holding to maturity.

Nice one skyQuake,

I notice they've been on special lately.:)
 
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