XAO Technical Analysis

glenn_r · 31 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting use of Elephants and Rabbits as analysis tools, anyway do people think it's a "V" reversal or are we waiting for the "W" to form, that is the $64 question.

My money is on the "W".... but some is on "V" already.

johnnyg · 31 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

For those using the EW software, how does it determine that today was the end of wave 5 (going off the numbering on the 2 charts posted). Today closed on the high and I for one can't see any weakness.

EDIT - I re-looked and it looks as though on the above daily chart the #5 is still a little way up, so I guess this is projected from the previous waves as a possible termination point?

tech/a · 31 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Not the end of wave 5 but in wave 5.
Its just labelling it as such.

See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
They have to change as the market is dynamic and will show onething at one time and then over time be something else.

To attempt to demonsrate
on 20/07/09 the count was as the first chart.
on 21/07/09 the count was the second chart.
And still is.

You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move
I have been since 14/07/09 and its been a very good 2 weeks.
Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets.

Click to Enlarge

johnnyg · 31 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Cheers for the explanation tech. I too have been trading long for the past couple of weeks, regardless of the different counts for EW.

Frank D · 1 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
They have to change as the market is dynamic and will show onething at one time and then over time be something else.

Yeah the market is dynamic but elliot wave isn’t. It’s a big lagging lump of

tech/a said:
To attempt to demonsrate

Those charts demonstrate diddly squat. All they demonstrate is someone place their own counts on it after the fact.

tech/a said:
You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move

Hindsight at it's best. Tech, make sure you give me the tip next time around

tech/a said:
Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets

johnnyg said:
I too have been trading long for the past couple of weeks, regardless of the different counts for EW.

Simple things like trading with the trend often do make you money.

Bloody brilliant.

MR. · 1 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
Bloody brilliant.

Well I'm brilliant! Wasn't there a special thread for this? Anyway, not expecting a badge of guru status, lika suma dem uder fellas!

14/7/09

MR. said:
This is what I've been looking at "87 vs 08". Take a look at the same periods in the same time frames. Both hit in the month of October. Both falls were approx 50%, yes. With the second lows (3 months later) late Feb88 & early March09. From there "both" rebounded, some 26 percent, then side ways / dropped back a little over a couple of months.... very similar. So after the "dropped back a little" the low in 88 was in June then the market rallied a further 15% in a month!

Will we now see a 15% rise in July or there abouts?

The small correction in June 88 was approx 5% when the small correction in early July 09 bottomed at approx 5.5%. Then up she goes. So how much?

15/7/09

MR. said:
With the time frames and rebounds being so similar I agree that it appears to be based purely (as Nomore4's put it) “around the psychology of the market participants.” Either that or manipulation at its best, LOL. Coincidence?

Looking for 15.

Well, July has ended and what the? The market this time has gone up 14%. or is that 14% so far. Whatever, I'm outer there. Why is my hair standing on end? I thought it was a secret, but you all must have known this, you sons of guns not letting on, except for Nomore.

The stock market is not the economy, hell no. What exactly is the stock market then? F@#$ me.

I know it's the "psychology of the market participants" And to think I thought the market was going lower than 3100! geezzzz

From now on I will only trade with my new hat on. TH ya not getin ya tin hat back period.

View attachment TIN HAT2.bmp

Chris45 · 1 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move
I have been since 14/07/09 and its been a very good 2 weeks.
Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets.

That sounds like a beautiful "Type 1 Trade" to me. Well done!
Are you targeting a 1.618 extension of wave 1?

dutchie · 1 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Frank D said:
Yeah the market is dynamic but elliot wave isn’t. It’s a big lagging lump of

Those charts demonstrate diddly squat. All they demonstrate is someone place their own counts on it after the fact.

Hindsight at it's best. Tech, make sure you give me the tip next time around

Simple things like trading with the trend often do make you money.

Bloody brilliant.

Hi Frank

I'm a bit disappointed in your attitude here.

IMHO you might be better off putting your time and expertise in explaining your methods in more detail rather than ridiculing other posters and analysis methods.

I understand that you don't think much of EW but a constructive comparison of your methods and EW could be more beneficial.

I appreciate both EW and your methods.

Cheers

dutchie

MRC & Co · 1 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
F me you weren't joking!!

How do you manipulate the market like that

LOL, helps to have friends in high place huh!

Sean K · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Not the end of wave 5 but in wave 5.
Its just labelling it as such.

See this is where everyone has a great deal of problems with changing wave counts.
They have to change as the market is dynamic and will show onething at one time and then over time be something else.

To attempt to demonsrate
on 20/07/09 the count was as the first chart.
on 21/07/09 the count was the second chart.
And still is.

You could have been long from the bottom of the ABC corrective move
I have been since 14/07/09 and its been a very good 2 weeks.
Initial target for this move is 4388 which seems to be close to other types of analysis targets.

Click to Enlarge

Your last posts on the XAO a while ago made it clear you thought we were at a top, tech. Just over 2 weeks ago actually.

I also notice that March low is now labelled a 5. So, we're seen the bottom? I thought you were very sure that that was a 3 and we were headed to fresh lows?

I suppose that can revert back to a 3 in time can't it.

Maket's dynamic, etc.

tech/a · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Nasdaq
XAO
lining up-- analysis pretty well the same.
Again I dont see much changing from the analysis I have been posting for sometime.

Its weak.
Look with skepticism at long plays and be actively involved in low risk short plays.

You should work on your basic Elliott Guys!!
Both charts WEEKLY
Top chart QQQQ
Bottom ORDS

Click to expand

Was pretty right.

tech/a said:
Readig the market isnt that hard.

This is true.

This is true.

This is more likely.

Yet neither is Crystal clear.

Click to enlarge

So was this.

Frank I've read your work actually more than once.
Some is excellent.

Hmm doesnt re print the charts.
22/ July the Second chart
24th June the First chart

I think.

Found them

Sean K · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Huh?

No, and no.

and 11 July:

tech/a said:
Duc.

Is it really that hard?

Nett short currently IS the next big thing.
We have many stocks and many indexes all showing the same signs of weakness.(They are technical signs Duc) They were shown clearly at the beginning of its recent down turn and are very similar to those which you dismissed as utter nonsense when I opened a thread years ago "Perhaps this isn't the top" I presented evidence there which played out.
Presented evidence for the 6880 correction The 3200 wave 3 end wave 4 and now the final wave 5 in this pattern.

3 days before you went long?

Very dynamic..

Trembling Hand · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

heheheheheh. just in the interest of balanced reporting,

tech/a said:
Was pretty right.

So was this.

Yeah but this wasn't from the 8th of July,

tech/a said:
Julia.

Nun asked for realtime examples these were what I pulled up within a few hrs.
Nothing special about those chosen-- just making the point of being on the right side of the market.
Short right now is the right side of the market.

remember a few others about some sort of H&S thingo too.

:bong:

tech/a · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

What?

Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
The problem is?
Evidence at the time was correct.
Further technical evidence presented itself so went long.
What you want a daily commentary?

$500/statement
Happy to oblige.

Trembling Hand · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
What?

Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
The problem is?
Evidence at the time was correct.
Further technical evidence presented itself so went long.
What you want a daily commentary?

$500/statement
Happy to oblige.

Oh I understand tech. Just highlights the BETTER method that say someone like Frank uses that has time and price levels defined before we get there rather than waiting for confirmation.

Cartman · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Short right there certainly was the right side of the market.
The problem is?
Evidence at the time was correct.

TH has his wooden spoon out again methinks

just for the record though shorting any instrument when its reaching a double bottom in an uptrend is not recommended

nunthewiser · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
What?

$500/statement
Happy to oblige.

LOL this bit gets me every time!!

cheers tech/a you crack me up

nunthewiser · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Cartman said:
just for the record though shorting any instrument when its reaching a double bottom in an uptrend is not recommended

arrghhh why didnt you tell me that before when you saw i was entering shorts! ....bleedin hindsight experts sheet me to tears bucko .........

tech/a · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
LOL this bit gets me every time!!

cheers tech/a you crack me up

Just waiting for someone to take me up.
Joe's loves donations.
I know Ive donated!

I'm the only Muppet to take up my own offer and Lost!!
I crack myself up!

Cartman · 2 August 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
arrghhh why didnt you tell me that before when you saw i was entering shorts! ......

what --- u didnt get my email !!

if i remember Nun u were shorting at a recent top not the double bottom --- i like that strategy myself, but sometimes backing the top to stop spinning is better on the second spin !! --- especially when it gets that crazy little thrust pattern which almost throws it off the table just before it stops eh

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