XAO Technical Analysis

motorway · 18 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

The Primary trend of any Market cannot be manipulated.

Charles Dow

Here is The ( & I mean THE there is only one )
Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )

It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice )

march 2009 would seem to be as significant as march 2003

Change of behavior with the last sequence of columns
( watch the down waves when looking to go long )

What do I mean by beyond manipulation

That there is no significant factors of a larger scale
that can impinge and cause dicontinuities

Not in the way that movements on this chart can cause on eg a 50 pt chart..

This chart would give more confirmation
when the current "step back" pushes up to 4200
( thrust after reversal ?)

It could pull back down one last time ( before moving higher to 4200 ) and make a higher low
( still have seen the bottom )
setting up a very good Buy point
with a Secondary Bottom, note straddling the Diagonal ,,

BUT beyond manipulation means such normal confirmation
is not a usual consideration--> With no larger scale at work-->
What is (possibly ) more likely is that the chart pauses and corrects in time instead of price.

As the hand ( primary trend ) holding the pendulum moves higher
Even though the swings ( the fluctuations ) do not..

motorway

wonderrman · 18 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

The Dow looks overbought on a short-term frame, with resistance at 8,850. Would expect a decline over the next few days. No reason why the XAO wouldn't follow.

3 to 6 month time frame still looking bullish, positive reports out of the US and less worser eco news should continue to push the market to at least 4300.

I would not rule out a rally to 5000 - 5200 before end of year if the eco news remains good enough for the masses.

It looks like we have seen an intermediate bear market low of 3,121 on March 3.

In 1966, the stock market topped out with the Dow at 995. By September 1967 the Dow had fallen to 786. A big rally followed, the Dow went back up to 985 in December 1968. Many called this a new bull market, it turned out to be a massive bear market rally. In December, the market turned down as the bear market took over again. By December 1969 the Dow had fallen back to 769. The market rallied again to 842 by December 1970.

With the amounts of stimulu being provided by the US printing machine that is the Fed reserve, I don't think we have seen the end of this bear market. The low of March 6 did not feel like a typical bottom, and the amount of people who called the low as well as the quick change from pessimism to optimistic attitudes on Wall Street was strange. Usually the bears are still dominant for 6 to 12 months after a major bottom.

Could we see a situation like what occured from 66 to 69 occur? Your guess is as good as mine. It is a scenario that could pan out though. Happy trading.

wonder.

wonder.

Garpal Gumnut · 19 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
Here is The ( & I mean THE there is only one )
Primary Trend of the Market (200 pt chart of XAO is beyond manipulation )

It gives indication that the bottom is in ( until further notice )

march 2009 would seem to be as significant as march 2003

Change of behavior with the last sequence of columns
( watch the down waves when looking to go long )

What do I mean by beyond manipulation

That there is no significant factors of a larger scale
that can impinge and cause dicontinuities

Not in the way that movements on this chart can cause on eg a 50 pt chart..

This chart would give more confirmation
when the current "step back" pushes up to 4200
( thrust after reversal ?)

It could pull back down one last time ( before moving higher to 4200 ) and make a higher low
( still have seen the bottom )
setting up a very good Buy point
with a Secondary Bottom, note straddling the Diagonal ,,

BUT beyond manipulation means such normal confirmation
is not a usual consideration--> With no larger scale at work-->
What is (possibly ) more likely is that the chart pauses and corrects in time instead of price.

As the hand ( primary trend ) holding the pendulum moves higher
Even though the swings ( the fluctuations ) do not..

motorway

Agree, unless the bottom is not in.

And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.

gg

jancha · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.

gg

Garpal Gumnut said:
Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?

gfresh · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

jancha said:
There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Can you really say that with any real certainty? Where the economic reality seems to be, and where the charts go are often very out of step - logic usually never plays a part. As can be seen of the break of the H&S on the XAO which looked like the end of the rally, but has since reversed, and now looks to be testing the top again. All of this seems to be eating into the bear's timeframe of the collapse that is about to happen any moment now to take us down below 3000 in a matter of months... but which doesn't seem to be happening. Not even evident on the short-term scale.

jancha said:
Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Worked in the past..

Sean K · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

jancha said:
And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.

gg

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?

Unfairly targetted where?

And, what if an EW has called a bottom?

Or, what about another that has an alternate count that the March low was THE bottom?

motorway · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

gfresh said:
Can you really say that with any real certainty? Where the economic reality seems to be, and where the charts go are often very out of step - logic usually never plays a part. As can be seen of the break of the H&S on the XAO which looked like the end of the rally, but has since reversed, and now looks to be testing the top again. All of this seems to be eating into the bear's timeframe of the collapse that is about to happen any moment now to take us down below 3000 in a matter of months... but which doesn't seem to be happening. Not even evident on the short-term scale.

Worked in the past..

Those who do pick bottoms ( and tops )
If they know how to use that information

Should make fortunes

Unless you can identify ( a better word )
a top or bottom on some scale
how else ? chart obviously shows large trends
You have to ride those trends

H&S , EW ?

What we need is to know is , is that a storm cloud ?
Or is another a portent of fine weather .

That at sometimes one can see shapes ( of the imagination )
In them is beside the point

the 200 pt chart ( and the XAO can move 200 pt in 30 mins )
moves LOCKSTEP ( but ahead ? ) with business and economic cycle

( It would not be primary trend if it did not )

Nomore4 brings up the option of what sornette would call an anti bubble

OK Watch for the 50pt chart to break free and start to rally within the confines
of the 200 pt chart to negate that possibility

That would mean the sychrony is breaking down
and new cycle is starting
Markets are Minds
Minds CHANGE
If your mind does not change it gets replaced when you run out of money --> But either way the Mind of the Market changes
and will do what it will do regardless of the pretty shapes people seem to focus on.. You Run out of money Because you could not identify the TOP or The BOTTOM

And bought when you should have sold..

( Yes A mechanical system could do this for you ...To some extent )

From the general formations (not so-called patterns )which are popular with some purely theoretical technicians) we are able to detect accumulation or distribution, and we see, clearly marked, the lines of support and supply. We can also identify the marking up and marking down periods to excellent advantage--------> RDW

That a cloud looks like a witch on a broomstick
does not mean that it is going to rain

Same Thing IT is form the GENERAL FORMATIONS . the PATTERNS OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY and ONLY .... (a brilliant observation )

On Sornette anti Bubble and Bubble

, the figure chart may show many fluctuations
while the verticals are unchanged. RDW

( see the connection ? )

Ok consider the possible divergence and convergence
between say that 200 pt chart and the 50 pt chart ( good choice for the XAO keep an eye on the 100 and 25 too )

When accumulation starts it will show up on the smaller scale charts
and the way that they start to become active..
and display a higher density of information...

watch for dullness
and then which direction activity expands towards....

gauge the probabilities ( We all know that is what it is about ? )

motorway

Real1ty · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

jancha said:
Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

You are unfairly targeting hopeful festion fundamentalists

makingmoney · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

jancha said:
And one knows what happens to those who pick bottoms.

gg

Elliott wave theory has been unfairly targeted in this thread.

It provides useful guidance for long term traders as to possible points at which to attempt to predict the top of a bull trend and in the present case, the bottom of a bear.

There are too many hopeful festian fundamentalists posting hopeful scenarios of a return to an everlasting bull market.

It is not going to happen, and there is much more money to be lost on the long side.

Present fundamental economic answers seem predicated on socialist principles of bailing out the undeserving and getting the future generations to pay the debt. These attempts will fail.

Charts never lie, and I would suggest on EW principles a low of 2400 for the XAO, possibly at the end of the year, with then a sideways move for 1 or 2 years.

gg

So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?

ummm 2400 by the end of the year..i would say this..dont pull 2 much faith in elliots wave 5 lmao...cause 2400 just seems out of sight...with the bulls and the dow (spin of king propaganda)there no way i can see it happening..they make bad news seem gud...u gotta c citi/gm=failed crashed companies yet the spin of the news..the bulls r still here..i say the lows of feb where the bottom,and yes agreed with the incoming infomation of end year reports it will correct itself maybe 10%..but my personal opinion is after mid august the bulls will take it through 4200 rest

Trembling Hand · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Guys jancha has posted OTHER peoples words without using the quote tags.

From my reading all jancha has asked is

So what happens to ones that pick the bottom gg?

the rest of the post was gg's :

nomore4s · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Guys jancha has posted OTHER peoples words without using the quote tags.

the rest of the post was gg's :

lol, oops. It appears you are right TH - I've fixed the problem. Didn't realise the second part of Jancha's post was an old GG post.

skyQuake · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

On 11 November 2004 the spi neared 3866, a technical hedge fund called a major elliot wave top at 3866 announcing they would stake their reputation on it (a fatal mistake) having shorted 4500 spi contracts. The bull elephants set about proving the call wrong. The phones went white hot. The best exit offer obtained was 3920.

makingmoney · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

oh snap sorry jancha didnt see ur question on the bottom..my bad

Largesse · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:

just a lazy -$6Million

skyQuake · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Largesse said:
just a lazy -$6Million

They should have averaged and gotten out in March :

Awesomandy · 20 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
They should have averaged and gotten out in March :

Just imagine how many margin calls you would get when you have up to $330m unrealised loss sitting in the account.

Broadway · 21 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Private Trader said:
I see a fake break to the downside (between 3722 - 3757) before the bulls take charge & push the index to between 4101 - 4116.

Note the divergence between the On Balance Volume & the Chart.

Either way it should make an interesting ride.

Good Trading!!!

Nice call back then PT. (he posted this 4th july)
You had alot of doubters.
Any chance you could show that divergence on a chart?
And are you bearish any time soon?

nunthewiser · 21 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

for what its worth .....

i have entered BHP and TLS short as of today

last shorts of BHP and WDC was stopped out

lets see how these go

yours sincerely

a.goose

skyQuake · 21 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
for what its worth .....

i have entered BHP and TLS short as of today

last shorts of BHP and WDC was stopped out

lets see how these go

yours sincerely

a.goose

Still holding my shorts - NAB and a few others. US is overdue for a downmove... and if it does, watch out below! (Then Aus will have a nice squeeze after the gap down haha)

Trembling Hand · 21 July 2009

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Nice call back then PT. (he posted this 4th july)
You had alot of doubters.
Any chance you could show that divergence on a chart?
And are you bearish any time soon?

Broadway I remember looking at that to see what Divergence he was talking about. As Divergence after a rally (I guess he was talking about daily) would be bearish.

I couldn't make any sense of it because 1 I couldn't see divergence and 2 it would be bearish

Anyway we did get a false break. Which is keep with the H & S calls on this forum, think they are running at about a 20% hit rate!! good work there

For the bears I reckon you haven't got an edge this week shorting but maybe the coin I flipped was stuffed.

XAO Technical Analysis

motorway

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