XAO Technical Analysis

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Looking pretty bearish right now.....falling pennant only had two up days. Sitting on medium term support, if we go down, next pause at the 3200 mark...maybe, maybe not.

I agree. Nice green and yellow chart too!

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

PERSONALLY


think a nice lil bounce tommorow and MAYBE friday ........in fact punting on it

amen

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

Are we somewhere near a 5 year low ?

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

PERSONALLY


think a nice lil bounce tommorow and MAYBE friday ........in fact punting on it

amen

Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.

dunno about you but ive got plenty of personal use indicators going off and if you may notice quite a few off there lows from when i posted . nothing to do with boredom , mainly to do with the fact i spotted some fairly easy cash.


each to there own , if you feel you need to relearn money management , fair enough

cheers

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

ps as far as management is concerened ALL trades entered are managed with the same stoploss discipline and i am more than happy to take my already calculated loss in the beat of a heart

hope this helps on your quest

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Analysis

No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.

What about idea and strategy development

And on that,


Just a heads up for anyone that's not use to looking in the SPI thread there is some good stuff being posted in there currently which is of obvious benefit to the XAO.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=387655#post387655

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

Nun I'm with you on that one. No real technical indicators telling me to buy today, just was a bit bored of being on the sidelines and had a good feeling. I think i have to go back and re-learn money management.

APOLOGIES if you were being sincere . I thought you may have been takin the pisss for my entry plans

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

What about idea and strategy development

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=387655#post387655

Haha, thanks for your concern. I'm in the process of reworking my strategy, so it has meant I have been out of the market a while. A few indicators showed up today so I figured may as well enter, still a punt nonetheless as it wasn't based on my strategy. Entered with tight stops and minimal position size however.

 

[sammy84]

Re: XAO Analysis

APOLOGIES if you were being sincere . I thought you may have been takin the pisss for my entry plans

Nah not taking the piss nun, sorry you took it that way. I had a few indicators go off today, but not enough to make me supremely confident. More laughing at myself for going against my trading rules. Still I do expect a bounce by weeks end

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?

 

[sinner]

Re: XAO Analysis

So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?

+25% all up as of today close but all gold miners

 

[nunthewiser]

Re: XAO Analysis

So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?

um that was a cupla days ago but just because you asked the result was .stopped out of 2 small losses , 6% gain on other ,

overall result was just below breakeven , so yes i suppose it was a failure

ya get that

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: XAO Analysis

So that's our lowest close in about 5 years. How are you guys going with your longs?

I'm long cash. Does that count?

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Re: XAO Analysis

um that was a cupla days ago but just because you asked the result was .stopped out of 2 small losses , 6% gain on other ,

overall result was just below breakeven , so yes i suppose it was a failure

ya get that

You took your stops so that would be a success in my book.

 

[dhukka]

Re: XAO Analysis

Our banks... ANZ you mentioned getting closer to 10 than 15... is still way over there. Don't wanna repeat that one yet eh.

You were saying Whiskers?

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Analysis

As a general comment I have to say that the urgency is gone, I dont feel the need to get in in case I miss the "bottom" I donr really care any more if the ASX is up or down 100 points because I know it's not going to surge anytime soon.
That to me is the first sign of acceptance that the market is rooted for the medium term at least.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: XAO Analysis

Who cares what the index is, when Gold producing stocks are up on average about 100% from there Oct-Nov bottoms....also many other defensive/conservative stocks above there Oct-Nov bottoms.

 

[Logique]

Re: XAO Analysis

Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 - classic, not the generally accepted trading Fibonacci ratios.

Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234

So there is a convergence with the 1.618 retracement level of ~ 3200 in the chart posted by bankit above. But to get there it would first have to breach the 3400 - 3500 level - previous resistance, being (hoped for) new support.

Hi Logique,

You are quite correct in using the 89% figure as it (or more precisely 88.6%) does feature in major turning points in a number of Geometric Price patterns like the Bat, Crab, Butterfly and Gartley patterns.

However I have that 88.6% figure as being 3146 on the All Ords and not 3234. I get that figure from a low of 2666 and high of 6873....

Bankit

Thought it might be interesting to quote these posts from mid-October 2008, where I had used a Fibonacci 89% retracement to get a projected XAO low of 3234, but Bankit with more precision corrected this to 3146. With the current level at 3300, these calculated retracements are rapidly approaching, and if breached - I guess we'll have to look for a new paradigm, or the next Fib ratio in the sequence.

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

Thought it might be interesting to quote these posts from mid-October 2008, where I had used a Fibonacci 89% retracement to get a projected XAO low of 3234, but Bankit with more precision corrected this to 3146. With the current level at 3300, these calculated retracements are rapidly approaching, and if breached - I guess we'll have to look for a new paradigm, or the next Fib ratio in the sequence.

Any other quotes that may have been incorrect?