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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Agreed they do well in inflationary environments but we won't see one of those for some time. The US just recorded it's biggest 2 month decline in inflation since 1932. Inflation is the problem at the moment, the RBA along with other central banks will have their hands full trying to prevent deflation in the next 12 months.
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Oops, should be inflation is not the problem

chops_a_must said:
We are certainly in deflation right now.

There is no doubt about that.

But I get the feeling the market is trying to work out where the printed money is going to pop up. It may be 12 months, or 3 years. And it may pop up in something well before there is "official" inflation.
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Yep agreed but I think the market is getting ahead of itself again. Everyone is buying into the second half recovery story, China slowing to 6-7% but picking up again with their stimulus package. Time and time again markets have been caught out by long tail events yet we can't shake our habit of forecasting linear outcomes. What if China slows to 2-3%? Who's forecasting the effects of that?

Up until recently the US Fed has NOT been priniting money. This is a major misunderstanding and has been widely misreported in the media, the vast majority of the alphabet soup of programs initiated by the Fed and Treasury have been sterilised injections or repo programs, Bernanke has not started dropping money from helicopters yet, yet being the operative word, because we know from his academic leanings that he will print as much money as it takes to prevent the next great depression.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

That reminds me Dhukka...

Your favourite man and mine, Krudlow said last night, and I quote, "Disinflation is pro-growth!"

I lost it.

Seriously, if I met him, I think I would want to punch him, but don't think I could due to the laughter.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It is options expiry today and I think Oz futures are also expiring. Normally they are about a week apart. Could be an interesting day for the Oz market...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Maybe we should take a poll on which way this is going to go?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Depends how you draw it, Kennas. :D

Look, look... now it's a descending triangle...

GP
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

UP !!

Nasdaq, Ftse , DJ , S&P, Hang seng, Nikkei, all pretty much look the same..

Its Go for a while :)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hmm dont know about that.
QQQQ looks like its in a wave 4 up move.
It looks pretty symetrical IE Wave A=Wave C in the 3 waves of the 4th wave.
Volume is underweight so not showing any signs of strength.
Limited upside is my current view.
Click on chart for bigger view.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Everything in my view follows the Dow, even the gold price at the moment. A look at the Dow on the weekly 5 years chart is looking very dodgy, particularly the lower highs going back about 5 weeks (volume on the Dow was very much higher last night which is also omminous, getting out and perhaps the Fed trying to hold up. Looks to me that there will be a break to the downside in the next 3 or 4 weeks with little support till about 4000.

Interesting that this coincides with the inauguration of the new US president.

Time will tell.


I am not technical up to posting charts, but viewing on "Bigcharts"
 
Re: XAO Analysis

To help those that maybe a little confused with the hours


Trading hours for Christmas holiday period

During the festive season the ASX and CommSec is closed for trading on the following days:

* Christmas Day (Thursday 25 December 2008)
* Boxing Day (Friday 26 December 2008)
* New Year’s Day (Thursday 1 January 2008) (I thought this would have been 2009?)

Please note these days are not included in T+3 calculations of settlement dates.

For example, a sell trade executed on Tuesday, 21st December will not settle until the evening of the following Tuesday, 30th December and proceeds will not be available till the next business day i.e. Wednesday, 31st December.
Date (trade + days)
Tue 23 Dec T*
Wed 24 Dec (closing at 2.10 pm) T+1 T*
Thurs 25 Dec Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed
Fri 26 Dec Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed
Mon 29 Dec T+2 T+1 T*
Tues 30 Dec T+3 T+2 T+1 T*
Wed 31 Dec (closing at 2.10 pm) T+3 T+2 T+1 T*
Thurs 1 Jan Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed Closed
Fri 2 Jan T+3 T+2 T+1 T*
Mon 5 Jan T+3 T+2 T+1
Tues 6 Jan T+3 T+2
Wed 7 Jan T+3
* Day of first trade

Cash Management support will operate as per normal trading hours and will be open on Christmas Day, Boxing Day and New Year’s Day. You will also have access to the CommSec website and Phone Trader services during the festive season.

Early closing

On Wednesday 24 December and Wednesday 31 December 2008 the ASX closes at 2.10 pm (Sydney time). On these days, CommSec’s trading hours will be as follows:

* CommSec telephone service: 8am to 8pm (Sydney time)
* Margin Lending telephone service: 8am to 5pm (Sydney time)
* Options Trading Desk: 8am to 3pm (Sydney time)
* Direct Funds: 8am to 3pm (Sydney time)
* ASX CFDs and OTC CFDs Trading Desk: 8am to 2.30pm (Sydney time)

CommSec International trading desk hours during holiday season:
* Christmas Day (Thursday 25 December 08) - Closes at 5am
* Boxing Day (Friday 26 December 08) - Open from 8am Friday to Saturday 8am
* New Years Eve (Wednesday 31st December) - Closes at 11pm
* New Years Day (Thursday, 1st January) - Open at 1am and close at 8am the same day
* Friday 2nd January - Open at 8am and close as per normal at 8am Saturday
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http://asxnewbie.com/index.php/Shar...ading-hours-for-christmas-holiday-period.html
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Asian Stockmarkets where open yesterday,,,

The Nikkei up 140.... Its so close you can all most smell it :):)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Hey All I am pretty knew to all this analysis and have recently been watching the XAO with bollinger bands and was wondering if today would indicate anything in particular, normally i would of thought we would be expecting some negative days following, but like i said new
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

enigmatic said:
Hey All I am pretty knew to all this analysis and have recently been watching the XAO with bollinger bands and was wondering if today would indicate anything in particular, normally i would of thought we would be expecting some negative days following, but like i said new
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Hi enigmatic, welcome,

I am also new but you should not take year-end trading too seriously. The volume of trades is very light and can give false signals which do not reflect the real situation.

Trend signals (both up and down) should be backed by a strong volume.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Agree on the volume comment, but still looks ok for the break up right now. Buying pressure has just overtaken selling on the DMI, and ADX trend weekening over the past 2 months. Look for that to start ticking up a bit higher with the prices moving up also, or down of course....

The poll question of which way it's going to break looks up right now, but we probably need the 3700 ish Oct low / Nov high to be beaten to claim it.

:2twocents


J. Welles Wilder developed the Average Directional Index (ADX) to evaluate the strength of a current trend, be it up or down. It's important to determine whether the market is trending or trading (moving sideways), because certain indicators give more useful results depending on the market doing one or the other.

The ADX is an oscillator that fluctuates between 0 and 100. Even though the scale is from 0 to 100, readings above 60 are relatively rare. Low readings, below 20, indicate a weak trend and high readings, above 40, indicate a strong trend. The indicator does not grade the trend as bullish or bearish, but merely assesses the strength of the current trend. A reading above 40 can indicate a strong downtrend as well as a strong uptrend.

ADX can also be used to identify potential changes in a market from trending to non-trending. When ADX begins to strengthen from below 20 and moves above 20, it is a sign that the trading range is ending and a trend is developing.
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Re: XAO Analysis

Click.................. :D

Thank you very much :D

should get to 4000 with a bit of luck




Sorry chart is xjo not xao,,,, but close enough
 

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