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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
New low by a few points low now tested.

Looks very weak.
If your buying longs now your guessing/maverick.
Click to expand...

i was long on the open... almost hit my SL... unfortunately, it never hit my TP target, so I closed for more or less break even... (5 points for the trouble) but hardly worth the effort... strategy was trying to trade the gap...

yes, totally agree with you, shorts are the go... pretty much short on any rallies is where the smart money is....
 
Re: XAO Analysis

well the triangle is now complete.
might get a rally before g20
shanghai/shenzhen index is up more than 3% what's going on there?
more bad earning/data could see it drop though
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like a positive night and a double bottom for us.
Even so.
To take longs today is still punting in my view.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Not exactly convinced we are gonna get much follow through from this 5th wave just yet. Pattern of trend might indicate we had a false break today. And fast moves in the opposite direction have a habit of coming from false breaks.

Also we finished on a low which could spell trouble for the short term continuation of the fast move we had down this week.

Cycle point analysis shows three cycle point lows in a row completed this week. This study is the time based equivalent of a five wave structure.

Shorts might need to keep stops very tight IMO.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

And with a 100pt swing in the futures within an hr and a half.-------
And Europe opening pretty badly perhaps all aint rosy tommorow.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I really hope you guys are right

I have generally done ok over the last 7 odd years - but this is continued down run is really testing me.

Will see tomorrow
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Like many, I was surprised by the push to new lows today and the wave 4 triangle formation would now be considered complete as of the high reached on Monday even though I was expecting a more symmetrical triangle to take shape over a longer period of time. Either way - a triangle with five 3 wave legs is complete.

The next leg down needs to be considered. Although we hit new lows today, the final wave 5 doesn't look complete from the end of wave e. Some possible targets are discussed below. Either we'll see five waves down or a ending diagonal that may be more complex to identify.

Because wave 1 was extended, the upwards correction after wave 5 completes could be swift and take the index back to the top of the triangle (wave a) or even higher.

It should also be noted that the completion of wave 5 will also complete the alternative count which would see an end to the current declines and carry the index higher or into a more complex correction that will take some time to complete.

The alternative count becomes invalid should the completed wave 5 low be broken after the impending correction completes - hence 1500 would then be squarely on the cards.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

I agree with Oz's 3428 target. This happens to be a resistance-turned-support from the 2001-2002 double top formation. I don't agree with the XAO going to 1500 if the count is wrong, as there are 2 more supports that it would have to crack through (see below)

 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well we just tested the 2008 lows just 1 1/2 hours ago and -300 on the Dow, now it's +120 points. So the lows held, who wants to call the beginning of another rally?

Personally I feel we could get a nice bounce soon, even if it's too early to speculate, but the falls in the past few days were pretty hefty and probably overdone in the short term. Still remain long-term bearish though and agree with others about hitting new lows, just not yet.

EDIT: too slow for me to realise, Dow now +211
 
Re: XAO Analysis

LOL well well well i sure am getting good at this one day out stuff

cheers ozwaveguy
 
Re: XAO Analysis

very good ending

DOW 8835.25 552.59 +6.67%
NASDAQ 1596.7 97.49 +6.5%
S&P 500 911.29 58.99 +6.92%

hope to recover some loss till next wave down..
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me. The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me. The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.
Click to expand...

happened like this , this time last week , all the bad data ignored and produced a rally,

blessem
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well that was expected, but unexpected, if that makes sense

Nice strong close, should be good for the markets here today, all metals up.

Good for the short term trades, think BHP or one of the battered banks may be a good trade today.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

i THINK most of the gains will be on open as normal with the odd exception but will be plenty of ops for a nice scalp here and there
 
Re: XAO Analysis


CamKawa said:
The DOW was 8000 at 1:00pm then closed 835 points higher. Fark me. The share market isn't anything more than a casino. I'm staying away.
Click to expand...

It's the Morning Star... I tell ya, the Mornin Star has shown the way.

Yer gotta trust yer stars.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sounds like I might be out-gunned on tomorrow's XAO prediction. The very short term wave count is calling for an imminent bounce or maybe one more minor low before the retracement starts. This would complete wave 1 down, and wave 2 should retrace back up to 3800 or slightly higher, before the downtrend resumes.

However, there seems to be a distinct lack of price support at the current levels except:

1) on the linear chart we have retraced almost exactly 76.8% of the leg up from the March 2003 lows, and
2) We are in the vicinity of a long term trend line from the early 1990s

So perhaps a little sideways action could eventuate.
 
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