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http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/stories/resources/Magic_Numbers_in_the_Dow.pdf
Magic_Numbers ----> There aren't any , at least in the past.
dyor
motorway
3200 is (A strong possibility) and that's 50% of the 6880 top.
Then its just another 50% of that.
This hasn't unwound yet not even close.
Companies haven't even started to find things tough yet.
Demand is only now starting to come off the boil.
After Xmas it will be so quiet you'll hear a pin drop.
Companies will be going into liquidation not just banks.
Reporting time will be time to fear rather than to look forward to better figures and a stronger price in stocks.
I wouldn't be so sure that its an impossibility!
All they did is create adjustment of rules resulting in a mechanical system, ie: they made a black box. No ta there at all and no idea how to apply it.
Then again, you can't blame them for being academics.
* Black boxes: Software systems that generate buy and sell recommendations through proprietary (undisclosed) algorithms. Investors using a "black box" are relying totally on the program. If the black box reasoning is wrong or unreliable, you won't know; nor will you have any control over the settings. You will also not be able to properly assess the level of risk in the program, and whether the risk matches your own risk tolerance.
Fibonacci Foolishness.
A search of the internet, or your local library, will convince you that the Fibonacci series has attracted the lunatic fringe who look for mysticism in numbers. You will find fantastic claims:
The "golden rectangle" is the "most beautiful" rectangle, and was deliberately used by artists in arranging picture elements within their paintings. (You'd think that they'd always use golden rectangle frames, but they didn't.)
The patterns based on the Fibonacci numbers, the golden ratio and the golden rectangle are those most pleasing to human perception.
Mozart used f in composing music. (He liked number games, but there's no evidence he ever deliberately used f in a composition.)
The Fibonacci sequence is seen in nature, in the arrangement of leaves on a stem of plants, in the pattern of sunflower seeds, spirals of snail's shells, in the number of petals of flowers, in the periods of planets of the solar system, and in stock market cycles. So pervasive is the sequence in nature (according to these folks) that one begins to suspect that the series has the remarkable ability to be "fit" to most anything!
Nature's processes are "governed" by the golden ratio. Some sources even say that nature's processes are "explained" by this ratio.
Of course much of this is patently nonsense. Mathematics doesn't "explain" anything in nature, but mathematical models are very powerful for describing patterns and laws found in nature.
I think it's safe to say that the Fibonacci sequence, golden mean, and golden rectangle have never, not even once, directly led to the discovery of a fundamental law of nature. When we see a neat numeric or geometric pattern in nature, we realize we must dig deeper to find the underlying reason why these patterns arise.
The "golden spiral" is a fascinating curve. But it is just one member of a larger family of curves/spirals collectively known as "logarithmic spirals", and there are still other spirals found in nature, such as the "Archimedian spiral." It's not difficult to find one of these curves that fit patterns found in nature, even if those patterns are only in the eye of the beholder.
But the dirty little secret of all of this is that when such a fit is found, it is seldom exact, and considerable variations from the "golden ideal" are seen in nature. Sometimes curves claimed to fit the golden spiral actually are better fit by some other spiral. The fact that a curve "fits" physical data gives no clue to the underlying physical processes that produce such a curve in nature. We must dig deeper to find those processes.
Ummm. But with the Shanghai index, the value more than tripled over the space of a couple of years. I think that events were unique to cause the value of the index to triple.
Not really.The interesting point to note on the shanghai index is: Back in November in 2007, If anyone had stood up and said the index would be 70% lower within a year, they would have been laughed off the planet.
During the great depression, stocks in the US dropped around 80%. It didn't happen in the first year, but took 3 years to do this. There is a definite precedent for this happening, and the current crisis has been likened to the depression in many ways.
Is 1500 points likely? I hope not as 20%+ unemployment is not something I would like to deal with. But it is not impossible. History has been there before.
Just in case there are others who don't know what a BlackBox is
Some more on "magic numbers"
http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/pseudo/fibonacc.htm
Of course much of this is patently nonsense. Mathematics doesn't "explain" anything in nature, but mathematical models are very powerful for describing patterns and laws found in nature.
Yes I think a lot can be revealed by measuring the actual
retracements ( The actual shape of clouds )---> reveals strength or weakness -relative--> changing behavior.
But very little in drawing various "magic ratios" ( the shapes we think we see / would like to see , in clouds )-- a nice quote on seeing such shapes in Talebs Fooled by randomness and the peril of doing so.
motorway
The XAO can go to low 3000s and it can stay there for years, but short of total meltdown to reach half that is impossible.
The interesting point to note on the shanghai index is: Back in November in 2007, If anyone had stood up and said the index would be 70% lower within a year, they would have been laughed off the planet.
Given all the gloom and doom on this thread a quick silly question. Has anyone been doing any buying lately?
Without going into any details and specifics of charts and analysis, to me the 10th October low in the DJIA and SP500 was quite significant.(At least for the last major leg down) I opened up some longs some weeks ago and have been using major retests to add a little more.
Time will tell if I am right or wrong. Knowing this could only be a 4th wave of sorts and i could be wrong, stops need to be kept very tight at the low sections of the retest lows.
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