XAO 3440 area will pull the market up, It is the 50% retrace of all time high, not to mention the tops of 01-02. If you go back to 1987 you will see that it had a 50% pullback and bottomed. 50% is THE MOST IMPORTANT retracement number in the market without any doubt, whether your a technician or a fundie everybody knows what 50% means, (61.8 means nothing to fundies and many techies) so if your looking for major buying from fundies and techies look at 50%. The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.
Now of course whether that stops the market long term may be a different matter, however short mid term if the marekt gets down there then we will bounce hard.
But we have to get there first, time will tell.
Ageo I may not be up to your legendary trader status, but I have traded through the sub-prime and I am still in the game so pls do not take me for a fool. Thank You, Nick
Hey, you lot... stop scaring my cats.
Cat's are really man's best friend... ya never know when you'll need an extra life or two.
Besides, there's not much meat on a scrawny old cat, they're mostly a few tough little muscles and cunning grey matter.
Now BEARS on the other hand are big and plentifull atm... and mostly starting to tire out, so they're easy prey... except Panda's of course, they're protected.
so if your looking for major buying from fundies look at 50%. The 50% area will get bought up big time if and when it happens, COUNT ON IT.
When you say half price (50%) everybody listens, some act and some don't, everybody wants a discount and 50% is a very serious discount
When you say half price (50%) everybody listens, some act and some don't, everybody wants a discount and 50% is a very serious discount
You need REAL and RECENT levels to draw retracements; the more well known the trend, the better. 3400 and 3300 whatever are NOT fib retracements. Sure if you keep looking back to the past you'll find some low that agrees with those levels.
But for those of us with long memories who think this fib stuff is hokum, those are support and resistance levels that were pretty solid at the time. If the April 2002 and April 2004 levels hold, I think you'll see buyers. Forget this 38% of whatever stuff, these are straight levels everyone can see and everyone will pay attention to.
But for those of us with long memories who think this fib stuff is hokum, those are support and resistance levels that were pretty solid at the time. If the April 2002 and April 2004 levels hold, I think you'll see buyers. Forget this 38% of whatever stuff, these are straight levels everyone can see and everyone will pay attention to.
Our conclusion must be that there is no significant difference between the frequencies with which price and time ratios occur in cycles in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and frequencies which we would expect to occur at random in such a time series.
In our introduction, we noted that empirical evidence from academic studies suggests that not all of technical analysis can be dismissed prima facie. The evidence from this paper suggests that the idea that round fractions and Fibonacci ratios occur in the Dow
can be dismissed.
Since I've been 'off topic' in some recent posts. I thought I'd share some Elliottwave Analysis for the XAO Short, Medium and Longer Term trends in one file.
Did your chart and analysis also note the wild behaviour and giant bubble that developed in the Shanghai Composite? I think it did, but that part is extremelly important in the relativity stakes.
Interesting you point to fundamental reasons this time.
Maybe a linear will do?Sorry MRC didn't have access to a longer term chart in semi-log scale that would show a better picture - the bubble you mention is 'out-of-context' without the bigger picture.
3200 is (A strong possibility) and that's 50% of the 6880 top.
Then its just another 50% of that.
This hasn't unwound yet not even close.
Companies haven't even started to find things tough yet.
Demand is only now starting to come off the boil.
After Xmas it will be so quiet you'll hear a pin drop.
Companies will be going into liquidation not just banks.
Reporting time will be time to fear rather than to look forward to better figures and a stronger price in stocks.
I wouldn't be so sure that its an impossibility!
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