XAO Technical Analysis

treefrog · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Show us, treefrog.

I don't see any. The only one that comes close is the low on 18th Sept, but the 3rd candle doesn't go more than half way up the first.

C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, I feel sorry for you. I have mentioned way back in the threads where I sold out of RAU on the corroberating sign of a bearish Evening Star and stayed clear of LOD on the basis of another. The rest is history.

There was clearly a gap down on that INDU chart you insisted was not a gap down, a Morning Star.

You should recall, that research you quoted, catagorised the success rate solely on the direction of the 'single' candle following the pattern. A flaw in determining trend analysis solely on the basis of one candle.

You seem to have forgotten that I'm not a permabull... I'm a pragmatist.

I pointed out three bearish Evening Stars as well, EUR/AUD, Gold GBP and Gold EUR.

And you might recall a little while ago nomore4's had a shot at me in similar vain to you, but he (in)conveniently forgot that apart from my being bearish oil and gold at times among others, I argued him to go short WPL to 43 when it was in the high 50's I think, and he was contemplating/trying to go long in a thread on the forum.

Candle patterns are just one of a number of indicators I follow. I just specifically mentioned them here because there seemed to be an extraudinary number of them in concert.

for goodness sake, all those you posted as MS patterns on ANZ (last ANZ one hardly a MS as sideways prior - not a downtrend) and NAB have already failed, and get this, they have failed on the basis of the charts you posted. I posted MQG because it gave a better picture of banking sentiment/action around those failures because you were rabbiting on about what financials might do.
People will make up their own minds whiskers about the tradeability of your stars, meanwhile I have put some aspirin in your saucer of milk and a couple of cyclamen petals in yesterday's mince to freshen up your tucker - hope you feel better soon

nomore4s · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
And you might recall a little while ago nomore4's had a shot at me in similar vain to you, but he (in)conveniently forgot that apart from my being bearish oil and gold at times among others, I argued him to go short WPL to 43 when it was in the high 50's I think, and he was contemplating/trying to go long in a thread on the forum.

Just to clear this up whiskers, I did go long on WPL - twice and both times I had +5x R/R winners, in fact I was already long when you made that call and got stopped out soon after. I also never said the price wouldn't drop only that it was a long way from the current price - never made the call that it would or wouldn't get there, I'll leave that to you.

I think I'm trading different timeframes to you mate.

I don't bother trying to argue with you or correct you as you seem to forget your bad calls and rub everyones faces in the ones you get right.

chops_a_must · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, I feel sorry for you.

Too funny...

You've gone through fibs, regression channels, EW, and now candlesticks.

Which analysis are you going to be obsessed with next? And perhaps because you are allowing your bias to affect your analysis, rather than your analysis affecting your bias, that you feel the need to chop and change your analysis obsession after you have been absolutely caned. Rather than looking at other things that are probably leading to that instead?

Cheers.

Whiskers · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
for goodness sake, all those you posted as MS patterns on ANZ (last ANZ one hardly a MS as sideways prior - not a downtrend) and NAB have already failed, and get this, they have failed on the basis of the charts you posted.

NAB up trend certainly has not failed. ANZ has made higher highs and the higher lows made minor Morning Stars to kick on the momentum. Certainly has not failed.

I posted MQG because it gave a better picture of banking sentiment/action around those failures because you were rabbiting on about what financials might do.

You made a nonsense statement about Morning Stars on MQB, there are none... and MQB is one of the last I would choose as representative of the Australian banking system and economy anyway.

People will make up their own minds whiskers about the tradeability of your stars...

Of course they will, along with Fibinacci, EW, P&F, that kumo cloud or whatever else method.

and because I was asked NICELY to mention any significant ones I will.

PNA has only a small weighting in the resource sector, but fits into the larger pattern.

treefrog · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
PNA has only a small weighting in the resource sector, but fits into the larger pattern.

yep PNA may yet be a successful MS - could be a first, worth posting in the relevant thread as just a wee bit ....:topic

Whiskers · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Just to clear this up whiskers, I did go long on WPL - twice and both times I had +5x R/R winners, in fact I was already long when you made that call and got stopped out soon after. I also never said the price wouldn't drop only that it was a long way from the current price - never made the call that it would or wouldn't get there, I'll leave that to you.

Quite so.

I think I'm trading different timeframes to you mate.

Quite so again.

I don't bother trying to argue with you or correct you as you seem to forget your bad calls and rub everyones faces in the ones you get right.

Illogically perceived provication or hurt is not reasonable grounds for insults and abuse.

chops_a_must said:
Too funny...

You've gone through fibs, regression channels, EW, and now candlesticks.

Which analysis are you going to be obsessed with next?

All of them... depending on which is more relevant or prominant at the time.

And perhaps because you are allowing your bias to affect your analysis, rather than your analysis affecting your bias, that you feel the need to chop and change your analysis...

Huh... You guys are extremely judgemental aren't you.

My trading changes with my analysis. If you spent a bit more time studying carefully you would see I have posted a mixture of bullish and bearish signals in different segments of the market.

I'm just putting out legitimate signs for analysis.

One thing I do NOT do, unlike a small bunch of you, is stalk the forum like the proverbial schoolyard bully, berating anyone that looks at you the wrong way or you just feel like plowing into because you can.

If you don't mind, get some behavioural training and learn to control your emotions. You'll be better investers/traders and citizens for the effort.

Whiskers · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

OK.... EW is now my flavour of the moment.

Have we put in wave 3 on the hourly yet?

Looks a bit of a chance to finish in green today, eh?

nunthewiser · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ok my call is there , scroll back , i have traded accordingly , bring on the red, today is the end of the top of current rally on the xao/xjo.... just an opinion pay no heed

saiter · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Wow, the XAO closes 2 points up after a strong rally in the afternoon. I guess I was wrong haha, but I'm amazed that the XAO managed to track the DJI so closely. Both observed a small change!

Sunder · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm thinking we'll test resistance somewhere around the 4300 mark before falling again.

I'm very uncertain about where we're going. The fact that we're shrugging off bad news, to me, seems like the worst has been priced in, and we'll float around aimlessly for a bit.

treefrog · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
C'mon treefrog, if you're trading as badly as you're getting your facts wrong, I feel sorry for you.

thanks heaps whiskers - got a bad trade running atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? would greatly appreciate any comment.

Whiskers · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
thanks heaps whiskers - got a bad trade running atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? would greatly appreciate any comment.

Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.

Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming. You asked for it.

Among other signs, stochastics are high on index and major componet stocks WPL and ORG.

Very high chance of oil going to new lows overnight.

Ouch... let us know how you went.

saiter · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The monthly chart

The daily chart

treefrog · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.

Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming. You asked for it.

Among other signs, stochastics are high on index and major componet stocks WPL and ORG.

Very high chance of oil going to new lows over night.

Ouch... let us know how you went.

OK but just to understand your advice:
mid trade I need to:
1) swap indicators
2) swap timescale (hrs to days)
3) swap to candle patterns that are incomplete
I'll take that on board.
Your style is a lot like chops says then.

Whiskers · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
thanks heaps whiskers - got a bad trade running atm on XEJ thread, don't know what to do with it - you got any advice there? would greatly appreciate any comment.

treefrog said:
OK but just to understand your advice:
mid trade I need to:
1) swap indicators
2) swap timescale (hrs to days)
3) swap to candle patterns that are incomplete
I'll take that on board.
Your style is a lot like chops says then.

Gees, that's not a very 'appreciative' comment, treefrog.

Well... for me, it's much wiser to think in terms of probability and trade risk analysis, for me both high atm... and suspect a cliff coming up and plan, than worry about what to do once you've gone over it.

There's and old EW saying that's been going around... guide/temper your short term view by the bigger pattern/picture, ie trading shorter term indicators alone can get a bit like a donkey with blinkers on.

Anyway, I guess this difference in opinion reflects our personality to a large degree... you being a 'trend follower' and me a... well you'll need to figure that out to appreciate it. :

tech/a · 4 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally closed all my long positions today.

Its common for these retracements in a bear market to form 3 internal waves.
So we have wave 1 (A)-- likely to have a pullback to form wave 2 (B) before continuing to 4350 to 4800 wave 3 (C).

Maybe a little early but have at least have a nice profit banked.

chops_a_must · 5 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Personally closed all my long positions today.

Its common for these retracements in a bear market to form 3 internal waves.
So we have wave 1 (A)-- likely to have a pullback to form wave 2 (B) before continuing to 4350 to 4800 wave 3 (C).

Maybe a little early but have at least have a nice profit banked.

Well... we've had a breakdown of support on the VIX.

So I'm expecting a run on the XAO to about 4800, and the DOW to about 10500 in reasonably quick time.

Unless this is just a head fake and false break.

tech/a · 5 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Could do Chops.4350 to 4850 is the obvious range of this move.
May not go straight to go before collecting the $200

chops_a_must · 5 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Could do Chops.4350 to 4850 is the obvious range of this move.
May not go straight to go before collecting the $200

Yeah, probably more an indication of where we will be by the end of the month.

Perhaps free parking might give people another shot to get in on this move upwards.

jonojpsg · 5 November 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, if it were me, based on my data, I'd take my profits and run ASAP.

Very slight gap up... probable Evening Star coming. You asked for it.

Among other signs, stochastics are high on index and major componet stocks WPL and ORG.

Very high chance of oil going to new lows overnight.

Ouch... let us know how you went.

A very high chance that did not eventuate - oil up $6. Don't forget to read the Peak Oil thread people - you will see that oil has only one way to go IMO

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