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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

nunthewiser said:
Personally thinking that many users of the EW application HERE need to get a better understanding of its workings too .......no offense intended , blah blah blah

cant say ive seen too many accurate callings on situations of late by those that proffess its greatness and ready to jump at anyone that points out that it aint no better than a ruler and pencil and ANY other TA based analysis.

i think ive had this discussion before , but hey nothing like pointing out the bleedin obvious from time to time

thankyou
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I will point this out (Your post) which echo's the sentiment of most who just dont get it.

Let me ask this question.
If you analyse a company fundamentally and find it undervalued buy into it and find in 3 months its lost 20-50% of value--that analysis is wrong?

Or a Triangle pattern fails,or a pennent or a breakout fails or a trendline is broken or an M/A is broken or a candlestick pattern fails---these then are simply in accurate voodoo with little value?

ALL analysis simply supplies a setup---an opportunity to START or END a trade.
E/W is in some respects no different but in other respects very different in that ALL counts are continually DYNAMIC and can be updated from bar to bar.

Its not a flaw but an amazing advantage.
If people can understand that there is NO RIGIDITY and when disproven doesnt mean the worlds fallen in or the analysis has NO VALUE---then you'll actually begin to UNDERSTAND how to apply the analysis and never post a post like that above
 
Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:
I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea."
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Classic Elliot is 100 times easier to understand than Neely's book.

Unless you are seriously bright give it a miss.I found it so hard I gave up, but I am not that bright.

I know somebody ( a professional Trader) who also didn't complete the book.


Neely has also made some bad calls in the past and I believe is using a "new technique" called Neely river I think.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
I will point this out (Your post) which echo's the sentiment of most who just dont get it.

Let me ask this question.
If you analyse a company fundamentally and find it undervalued buy into it and find in 3 months its lost 20-50% of value--that analysis is wrong?

Or a Triangle pattern fails,or a pennent or a breakout fails or a trendline is broken or an M/A is broken or a candlestick pattern fails---these then are simply in accurate voodoo with little value?

ALL analysis simply supplies a setup---an opportunity to START or END a trade.
E/W is in some respects no different but in other respects very different in that ALL counts are continually DYNAMIC and can be updated from bar to bar.

Its not a flaw but an amazing advantage.
If people can understand that there is NO RIGIDITY and when disproven doesnt mean the worlds fallen in or the analysis has NO VALUE---then you'll actually begin to UNDERSTAND how to apply the analysis and never post a post like that above
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1. no the fundamental analysis is correct , its the same company with the same bottom line , same intrisinc value etc
, it was the wrong use of TA or whatever calculation was used to come up with your entry price that is now 30% different

2.no just the same as EW analysis in the regards that it was wrong and it caused a failed trade/missed trade .no voodoo involved

i think you have already answered my point that it was no different to any other form of TA in form of accuracy and by some of the calls here ,by those using it were just as way off the mark as non users of it when it came to direction/pivot points/support etc etc .
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Jesus, she was sick today! S&P falling too, global indices are looking absolutely HORRIBLE, so much for my short-term bounce, shows the power of anyone making 'predictions'. No point, if it hits new lows, good chance it's going lower.

Oh god, the EW debate is back, just as the new lows points above, I don't see what is wrong with HH, HL etc. Much easier :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Jesus, she was sick today! S&P falling too, global indices are looking absolutely HORRIBLE, so much for my short-term bounce, shows the power of anyone making 'predictions'. No point, if it hits new lows, good chance it's going lower.

Oh god, the EW debate is back, just as the new lows points above, I don't see what is wrong with HH, HL etc. Much easier :)
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Yeah, agree on both counts MRC.

I have only been using EW manually as a range finder, ie to identify potential swings and their degree based on my other FA and TA analysis.

But I have another 'conspiracy' (sorta) theory or maybe at least a self fullifillng prophecy theory.

With all the algirythmic and market predicting software out there today, maybe people are going with and getting what they expect from their software... self fullfilling prophecy.

But having said all that, I think we are at another significant juncture that should unfold shortly ie the USDX falling again (Details on the where is gold going thread)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
With all the algirythmic and market predicting software out there today, maybe people are going with and getting what they expect from their software... self fullfilling prophecy.
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hello,

no, the reason we are in this mess is because of mechanical algorithmic trading which left an opening and least point of resistance to something that has not and could not be tested before

thankyou,
chopstalebbots
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Seems like a number of different markets are in the midst of the early stages of an Elliott Wave 5 this evening, breaking out of wave 4 triangles.

Same patterns are evident in the DJIA and even AUS buck!

Dow looks like 7200 is a possibility based on a measured move and Aus buck 59-60. Phew! Who would have thought hat 12 months ago!
Robert Prechter believes triangles are the penultimate pattern, not the ultimate or final pattern.

It could be that stock markets are going to get a hefty global bounce in November. There are at least three events on the horizon that could provide the boost.

First, if Obama is elected, you have the end of uncertainty about the U.S. election (and some highly irrational optimism that things will now be different, better, and nicer). Second, you'll get a new stimulus plan from the Democratic Congress in the U.S., which should give stocks a bit of a kick. And third, the big G20 meeting in Washington Kevin Rudd is headed too. Something that looks and feels good should come from that.


The only other possibility is perhaps the if the final Prechterian wave 5 truncates, at this stage given the fear that does not look like happening


All the best

STONER
 
Re: XAO Analysis

My opinion: the "govt deposit g'tee" is causing retirees in particular to redeem managed funds in droves.

Causing a major capitulation.

wont stop till gains and dividends are consistently stronger than cash rates.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Dow futures down 500/5.7% right now, Euro markets down over 6%, Asian markets down in the vicinity of 10%, is this still panic or the denial stage? An interesting article on CNBC:

Wall Street Moves Quickly From Panic to Despair

Any company reporting positive earnings this week might just as well have kept it to themselves: investors weren't paying attention anyway. But if a company missed profit estimates or lowered its outlook, the stock couldn't fall fast enough.
Financial Crisis

After being in panic mode the past few weeks, Wall Street is now wallowing in despair.

“The market in general is people throwing in the towel,” says Michael Cohn, chief market strategist at Atlantis Asset Management. “Bear markets go from denial to panic to despair, and we’re at the despair point, which I’m hoping is the last of the stages.”

Investors are ignoring the good news and focusing on the bad. And there's plenty of that to go around. Amid all the gloomy economic data and disappointing earnings, economists and market pros are increasingly convinced that the US and the rest of the world are headed for a painful recession.

“We’re so deeply oversold I would think the market would start to recover and rebound pretty significantly,” says Chip Hanlon, president of Delta Global Advisors. “But I think the market’s deciding that this is going to be a prolonged and painful recession. I think that’s a fair conclusion, so were getting these fits and starts.”

To be sure, a handful of the companies that posted strong earnings have seen their shares enjoy mild rallies. But most are like McDonald’s, which beat analyst estimates for the quarter and then watched its stock fall after a downbeat forecast for the rest of the year.

“Even if they report good numbers, it’s the guidance going forward,” Cohn says. “As a CEO in this type of environment, if you paint a rosy picture going forward you’re going to be thrown in jail.”

Another reason stocks can't hold rallies is that there is substantial selling pressure from hedge funds facing redemptions.

Hundreds, perhaps thousands, of the investment pools are expected to drown this year as they face intense pressure to unwind before the end of their fiscal year on Oct. 31.

“There’s nobody on the other side of these trades,” Michael Kresh, president of M.D. Kresh Financial Services, says of the hedge fund situation. “The reality is there’s nobody willing to come up to the plate and buy until they feel this is all over...Every time we get a nice up trade there’s a possibility that somebody needs to liquidate and they’re liquidating toward the end of that up day or the next day.”

That was in evidence in each of the past two weeks, when Mondays brought strong moves higher in stocks that eroded as the weeks went on.

Fear-buying has been substantial, with the Volatility Index moving into uncharted waters, while bad earnings reports have served to undercut rallies and strong earnings have had little impact.

“It’s nothing to do with what we’re seeing in earnings,” Kresh says.“What we’re seeing is a standard pattern. If you take financials out of the picture, most companies are meeting or exceeding earnings expectations. But it doesn’t seem to help. Fear is the primary driver here.”

Once the hedge fund situation unwinds, there will be clearer picture of exactly how deep a problem the recession will pose, Kresh says. Cohn, meanwhile, is awaiting the impact of the government’s additional stimulus efforts.

Hanlon is making tepid moves at buying into the weakness, using exchange-traded funds like the ProShares Ultra Small Cap [SAA 23.49 -1.38 (-5.55%) ] and the ProShares Trust Ultra QQQ [QLD 30.33 -0.28 (-0.91%) ]. The SAA moves up 2 percent for each 1 percent gain in small gaps, while the QLD gets the same return for a move higher in the Nasdaq.

Hanlon bought both funds with fairly strict stops put in to guard against steep drops.

“I’m in the camp that believes we can get (a rally) at any time,” he says. “I’m trading on the long side, but not with any conviction.”
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Re: XAO Analysis

Europe down -8:0% plus, S&P500 futures down -6.5% which is 'limit down', could we see the circuit breakers in action tonight? Or will the Fed and treasury reach into their ever shrinking bag of tricks and pull something out?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Watching the zaniness now..

UK 3rd quarter GDP -0.5%

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5005207.ece

Britain’s economy shrank in the three months to September for the first time in 16 years, all but confirming that it is now in the grip of its first recession since the early Nineties.

Bleak official GDP figures showing that national income plunged by 0.5 per cent in the three months to the end of September, in the sharpest drop since the end of 1990, revealed that the toll from the credit crisis and housing crash has ended Britain’s longest unbroken run of quarterly growth since at least 1955.
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Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Europe down -8:0% plus, S&P500 futures down -6.5% which is 'limit down', could we see the circuit breakers in action tonight? Or will the Fed and treasury reach into their ever shrinking bag of tricks and pull something out?
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Wouldn't be surprised to see it fall hard tonight, to be honest, but what tricks are there left to pull now? From Bloomberg:

S&P 500, Dow Average Futures Reach `Limit Down' Level

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been limited after declines in the contracts of more than 6 percent triggered a so-called limit down restriction.

The S&P 500 futures will not trade below 855.20 until U.S. exchanges open for regular trading at 9:30 a.m. New York time, said Jeremy Hughes, a London-based spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dow Average futures won't trade below the 8,224 level, he said. The ``limit down'' suspension allows both contracts to trade above those levels, he said.

Stocks tumbled around the world today and U.S. index futures fell on deepening concern the global economic slump will crimp corporate earnings.
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Re: XAO Analysis

Ouch, this is getting stupid. Probably end up 200 points by the end of the night?

Who knows in this current environment????????????:eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
With the XAO at about 3964 right now, it's only 100 points above the red line.

Will it follow the last three times it hit that line, or will it break through and we say bye bye to the trend since late 1987?

Given that current conditions are supposedly much worse than those three times, I'm not holding my breath.

GP
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closed hard on that red line end of this week GP, and ominously has pushed well through in futures and CFD's after the bell.
Nice support a little further down on the big green line though - can't see it pushing through that as easily.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

lol classic post.
Gotta admit I was expecting a higher green line........

Futures @ around 190 atm..

Going to be an interesting monday..
Can't see us getting past support @ 3400.

Not on monday anyway.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

awg said:
My opinion: the "govt deposit g'tee" is causing retirees in particular to redeem managed funds in droves.
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Undoubtedly true, but I suspect many retirees who have been following advice to "hold on, it will all be fine" may have reached the stage where they no longer have any faith in that suggestion and would have cashed out anyway.
 
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