XAO Technical Analysis

jono_oz · 18 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

RE: John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley.
"After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads," Mack wrote.

He continued: "What's happening out there? It's very clear to me - we're in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumours, and short sellers are driving our stock down."

I am sure making short selling illegal is not the only solution to changing the direction of this market, and he might be must making up all these figures. Though having watched this thread for some months now, I can tell that making figures say what you want them to say is an art alive and well practiced! But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have' for their own ends and not for any moral crusade to fix the evil structure of over bloated investment banks.

tech/a · 18 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

And so when all shorts start getting covered?

dhukka · 18 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jono_oz said:
RE: John Mack CEO of Morgan Stanley.
"After the strong earnings and $179 billion in liquidity we announced yesterday - which virtually every equity analyst highlighted in their notes this morning - there is no rational basis for the movements in our stock or credit default spreads," Mack wrote.

He continued: "What's happening out there? It's very clear to me - we're in the midst of a market controlled by fear and rumours, and short sellers are driving our stock down."

I am sure making short selling illegal is not the only solution to changing the direction of this market, and he might be must making up all these figures. Though having watched this thread for some months now, I can tell that making figures say what you want them to say is an art alive and well practiced! But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have' for their own ends and not for any moral crusade to fix the evil structure of over bloated investment banks.

This short selling is to blame argument, would have to be one of the biggest bogus loads of nonsense I've ever heard. As Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture recently said:

Wow, this guy Christopher Ailman is utterly clueless. I don't usually say things like this, but "Way to keep your eye on ball, genius!"

I don't have much of a problem with the uptick rule -- its pointless, and is easily worked around by hedge funds -- but i can take it or leave. And, I agree that rules against naked short-selling -- already illegal -- should be enforced.

But if you think the current economic, credit and financial problems are caused by shorting, you are simply a smoking too much dope. (Don't do drugs, or you will end up a brain-dead piece of lawn furniture).

Idiots . . .

To review, it wasn't the excess leverage, or the under-capitalization, or the lack of risk controls, or the bad investments in all of the real estate related paper, or the insolvency -- it had nothing to do with the nonfeasance on the part of the Fed, and the SEC going AWOL -- no, it was the short selling.

Great Interview with Nouriel Roubini who points out the flaws in business models of MS and GS and why they are ultimately doomed in the current environment. If your business is sound, it will be the short sellers that will get burned, not the other way round.

Awesomandy · 18 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
yeh im jsut suggesting we might get a breather tomorrow before another plunge monday, possibly a good opportunity to get some more shorts

I think so too. A lot of work has been done recently already, and there's a bit of a gap to cover as well. I'm also taking a guess, and would say that there's quite a bit of shorts to be covered. While I don't have the evidence, it does look to me that shorts are being covered towards the end of each the day for the last few trading days, so we might see a little bit more of that just as the weekend is arriving. I wouldn't say that we'll plunge again on Monday, however, but sooner or later, given recent events, I would imagine that it is likely for the xao to head down to the 38.2 fib level (~4275 points) in the future.

tcoates · 18 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Totally unrelated to the XAO but ...

Reading about all the doom and gloom... Waiting patiently on the sidelines. Watching Lateline and listening to some guy talk about the US markets...

Had a look at the VIX and is approaching levels not seen since Nov 2002 (and prev Apr 1998). At both these times the there was a "dip" in the indices.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX#chart1:symbol=^vix;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

and (for the DOW)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=19980102,20080917;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

FEAR RUNNING RIOT

Makes a contrarian (?) indicator, but I would wait for a bit of a downturn there before I thought there was a change in direction.

Funnily, one of the pages that I was on had a link to this news article also

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2008184337_stoxcenter17.html

My point... Whether it is short sellers doing all the damage, or bad debt, or bad business is neither here nor there. It has to be FEAR (lack of rationale thought?) pure and simple at the moment. FEAR of losing what you once had - $$$. And that will drive it down further until someone sees value in it....

... and the cycle starts over.

Tim

Whiskers · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
I got one...........

Read that one years ago. Haven't you noticed?

Porper said:
After that, this very advanced E.Wave book is a must for very serious analysts

Now porper mate, that's not true. My pussy cat is a terrific hunter, even with only one front leg, he still rounds up them mice very nicely.

dhukka said:
That's absolutely brilliant. Surely the author is an ASFer?

I could get into some connotations of your avatars, but to match it in your demeanor, well that's a bit beneath me.

But hey, look... I've got a good book for you lot... cover below.

Also a little quiz. Tell me what is this quote and which book it is from.

The immediate economic potential for an individual, an industry, or society can be explained by examining the technology gap, the best practices possible with current knowledge, and the practices in actual use.

And, what is the question on page 185 of Napoleon Hill's best seller?

white_goodman · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

strong lead from the US this morning?

mayk · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

It seems Paulson's plan will lift the market.

Well, we might get a short sucker rally. Will be a tough day for shorters, but I guess all the smart ones would have covered their shorts by now, suckers as usual would have been caught again.

This plan might not take the banks to their former glory immediately, but surely provide stability to the market, which is desperately needed.

I think US Govt. has started providing a proper solution long overdue, which they were postponing for the next administration.

The big question is will XAO go below 4000? Any opinions?

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jono_oz said:
But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have'

Ah more denial. Pity the poor punter trying to make money in the markets when they can't even see the state the market is in.

Reminds me of a timely quote "It's the economy, stupid"

tcoates · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Originally Posted by jono_oz

But you can't deny that 'naked short sellers' are driving the 'correction we had to have'

Well somebody believes that

FSA to ban short-selling of financial stocks

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/16102460-85a0-11dd-a1ac-0000779fd18c.html

But that would just the short sellers to look elsewhere?!?

Tim

tech/a · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Little has changed.
Perhaps some recognition of the dire straits world financial markets are in.

You cant run economies from a printing press.
Handing a bomb victim a bandaid wont stop them bleeding to death.

Now watching for old support to become the new resistance.

GreatPig · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting point the XAO is at right now in terms of the trend since 1987 (the earliest I have data for). Pretty much back at the main trendline, but still a bit of room for overshoot as has previously occurred.

If it breaks through those levels, then we really are in a bear market!

The slope of that trendline is about 7% pa, if I remember correctly (it was some time ago I worked it out). The lower orange trendline is currently around 3840.

GP

korrupt_1 · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

DOW Futures up almost 100pts since closing... Still on the eurphoria of last nights huge gains...

AU should have a very nice gap up this morning...

Struzball · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Stocks keep rising ie, MQG opened 33.00, dropped to 31.50, risen to 34.00, could the reason for its rise be punters desperate to close their shorts from yesterday?

Surely people can't be THAT optimistic following a 30% fall in SP yesterday.

white_goodman · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Struzball said:
Stocks keep rising ie, MQG opened 33.00, dropped to 31.50, risen to 34.00, could the reason for its rise be punters desperate to close their shorts from yesterday?

Surely people can't be THAT optimistic following a 30% fall in SP yesterday.

if it closes off the highs... i know what ill be doing

Trembling Hand · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Here's something for discussion.

Someone with HUGE pockets are throwing around big orders in the FUTs , 100 lots and greater.

Don't tell me that's not MQG desk with the buy button turned up to 11

Shorts are manipulators. LOL

Greg71 · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

If they need to start making up new rules, like banning short selling, there must be something fundamentally wrong.

TheAbyss · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Also a little quiz. Tell me what is this quote and which book it is from.

The immediate economic potential for an individual, an industry, or society can be explained by examining the technology gap, the best practices possible with current knowledge, and the practices in actual use.

Paul Zane Pilzer Unlimited Wealth Six laws of Wealth generation
Cant help with the question on Think and grow rich though, sorry.

Sunder · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

End of a crazy day. I think I have adrenaline burnout

Anyone game to make comments about what will happen over the weekend?

tech/a · 19 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
End of a crazy day. I think I have adrenaline burnout

Anyone game to make comments about what will happen over the weekend?

Yes.

The Preliminary Finals will be played in the AFL on Saturday.
I'll go for a long Bike Ride Sunday.

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