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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

It just occured to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.

"Long time lurker, first time poster, etc, etc"

I work in IT security, and although I've been playing with standard equities for a few years, this is my first foray into a bear market, and first attempt at CFD trading. I have to say, IT HURTS! (My investment capital down 25% since July 1st)

I do have a very dry sense of humour, so excuse any posts that might offend.

Still learning both in selection and trading discipline, so I'll enjoy being here with you for a bit.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Just selling this one into the close today ....

DJIA futures off a bit (albeit not much) ...

Looking like a soft close lacking any real support ...

I don't have the XAO so please excuse me positing here as its the XJO I'm refering to. Trade this via CFD ...

I'll post a chart tonight with my reasoning ... I see this is nice and lively so will start up a XJO specific post if this gets on the clooective goat ....

I'm only slightly short and will have to cover if this rallys into this weekend coming.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Actually it is very funny!! I would say spot on too.
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I agree.


I don't use very much T/A apart from very basic stuff but i do enjoy the banter in this thread.

EW reminds me of football.

A set of rules, the umpire interprets them as he sees fit, the crowd roars its displeasure or approval.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now.

With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.

Of course as I type this the market has rallied 20 points, but I have to do what my system says.

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brty said:
With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now.

With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.

Of course as I type this the market has rallied 20 points, but I have to do what my system says.

brty
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Rally's are a pain ...

Selling more now .... if the Dow rallies overnight I will most certainly need to cover into the weekend
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brty said:
With new yearly lows on the XAO, this doesn't look good now.

With 6 touches at these low levels and now new lows, this goose looks cooked. I'm holding cash and ignoring all long signals for individual stocks with the index at new, new lows.

Of course as I type this the market has rallied 20 points, but I have to do what my system says.

brty
Click to expand...

Do you not believe in shorting?

My "feel" is that this is the start of another leg down. We've been testing this support level quite a while now, and it's finally broken it. Without some good news in the next few days, I think we're going to go settle at a lower level until some news puts confidence back in the market.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
i dont think we are in a downward jsut yet tomorrow on the dow and asx looks for a up move imo
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Then explain the 100pt drop since the open this morning?

This is after good news on employment data...

I don't know... we're at a key point... it's all up to the Dow tonight... it's going to be either a bounce on this support level or the beginning of further new lows...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
i dont think we are in a downward jsut yet tomorrow on the dow and asx looks for a up move imo
Click to expand...

I wouldn't bet all my money on it, but the failure of the last upwards movement to create or even match the previous high, says to me that support is failing. If not on this touch, then very very soon.

I've got a small short on it. If it breaks support, then the next rally fails, I'll be opening up my short a bit and expecting a few week down wave.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
Then explain the 100pt drop since the open this morning?

This is after good news on employment data...

I don't know... we're at a key point... it's all up to the Dow tonight... it's going to be either a bounce on this support level or the beginning of further new lows...
Click to expand...

you may be right might be very make or break tonight....

i jsut dont think there was enough effort today to get out of the channels, it should bounce up tomorrow, well hopefully for me cos im still long on 99% of my stocks...maby jsut wishful thinking
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I wouldn't bet all my money on it, but the failure of the last upwards movement to create or even match the previous high, says to me that support is failing. If not on this touch, then very very soon.

I've got a small short on it. If it breaks support, then the next rally fails, I'll be opening up my short a bit and expecting a few week down wave.
Click to expand...

i think that is very smart idea, lets just wait and see tomoz, i have a feeling monday might be a big day if we go below tomorrow
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I sold it more on the CLOSE

I do hope the DOW falls out of bed tonight ... Fannie and Freddie drags GDP down a few more points than anticipated (or similar) ...

I've got the 4850 line on the XJO too I'll be watching the futures now very closely
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
It just occured to me that my previous post as a first post might not be as humorous as I intended it, so let me introduce myself.

"Long time lurker, first time poster, etc, etc"

I work in IT security, and although I've been playing with standard equities for a few years, this is my first foray into a bear market, and first attempt at CFD trading. I have to say, IT HURTS! (My investment capital down 25% since July 1st)

I do have a very dry sense of humour, so excuse any posts that might offend.

Still learning both in selection and trading discipline, so I'll enjoy being here with you for a bit.
Click to expand...

Sounds like you will fit right in, welcome to the forum.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
I agree.

EW reminds me of football.

A set of rules, the umpire interprets them as he sees fit, the crowd roars its displeasure or approval.
Click to expand...

A common observation.

But if you think about analysis any form of analysis and as has been shown with the Fundamental analysis above---interpretation of the exact same information can lead to a wide and varied result.

All analysis is correct until proven invalid or just plain wrong.
The ability to admit and take appropriate action when you know its either invalid or wrong makes the difference to your bottom line.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

the overall consensus is still circa 4200 id say... this sideways action is difficult for me picking stocks atm, id rather one way or the other atleast i can make my decisions easier
 
Re: XAO Analysis

white_goodman said:
the overall consensus is still circa 4200 id say... this sideways action is difficult for me picking stocks atm, id rather one way or the other atleast i can make my decisions easier
Click to expand...

So why then havent you been short for the duration of this concensus?

Its been a while!
 
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