Not trying to be a pessimist... I would love to read the opinion of the experienced forum chartists/traders.
It seems pretty obvious that last year the market was way ahead of itself.
Your thoughts appreciated.
Not a fundie but with WOW & now BHP reporting rather poor results, is the writing on the wall that we won't be saved by reporting season?
Alot of the bulls have been saying we will be shielded from a downturn in the USA by demand from China/India and our economy won't be affected as much etc etc. But if companies like BHPs net profit is already starting to drop, the upside is looking alot more limited than the downside atm, especially if we get any sort of slow down in China.
The banks are the ones I'll be watching with interest if profits aren't to expectations the next 6-12 months could be very very interesting considering the amount of time the flow on from the problems overseas will take to filter through to us here in Oz.
Having a bit of a longer term look on the weekly chart this time, still pretty much going to plan. Importantly, only the tail dipped below 5,700, and I see the usual indicators tending positive for the near future.
People have made some resemblences to the last Aug correction and 1987 crash. My view is that mid 06 is probably a better comparison.
Just for illustration purposes I see the XAO trending something similar to mid 2006 for the next few months, ie we have found bottom and will tend fairly flat around the long term trend line (yellow) for a few weeks until we establish where to go from there, which I am still inclined to think slightly bullish.
From last weekend.
Keep your shirts on people! It's gonna be all right.
Vertical line is roughly where I reckon we are compared to June 06 and August 07.
The worst is over for us.(Bludy hell I hope so now I've said that)
Looks to me as if it wants to retest that low. That looked like a classic counter rally. You will want to see that low hold.
cheers
Good God! What next? The 144,000 in white robes? Seven angels with seven plagues?
Sincerely hoping for the prediction of the worst being over to be right!
Still more cockroaches to come I think, after that plague and pestilence mind you I would swap all of that for the mossies at my place currently.
Looking at the chart its still pointing down wards IMHO
Interesting concept you use motorway. I vaguely understand the technology, but I think I get the philosophy behind it. I think my notion of 'proportion' is roughly about the same thing.----------Whiskers.
certain types of volatility cluster belong to certain types of trader
Because each price depends to some extent on the previous price, the market is not a random walk
any free market situation will have a drift exponent ( A trend constant
But time is dynamic and a measure of time is needed which will stretch and contract as the ( dynamics of the )system changes.
"Time eats things" .
You have to define time dynamically
CHAOS IS SEASONAL
Certain events appear to occur in an irregular sequence of
nonrepeating patterns. Such a picture, which corresponds to
the scientific notion of chaos, may seem to be useless in preparing
for the future. But chaos in the stock market, as in
business and many other areas, appears to be seasonal. In
particular, chaos is associated with periods of stagnation.
Once a trend enters a high-growth season, fluctuations become
less significant. Moreover, rapid-change seasons
alternate with stagnating seasons, implying that chaos eventually
leads to order, and vice versa. There is symmetry in this swing
from chaos to order and back, which can be utilized in making
investment decisions.
MAKING INVESTMENTS
Whats with the increase with volumes over the last 8 years?
A random Walk ?
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