"If it is a bear market, it is quite normal to have quite sharp rallies," Dr Oliver said.
"These bounces can be quite sharp - five to 10 per cent - then the downturn resumes again.
"I think we will see the market come back down to the lows we saw on Tuesday in the next few months and possibly go a bit lower."
People are too politically correct these days... Have whale instead
i say
That's IT!
That's IT!
I'm now a bull.:
A Cap Weighted index is in a sense unreal
What does it mean that it is at some level it was in the past ?
Does it mean all the constituents are doing exactly the same thing ?
Are the constituents even the same ?
The bullish percent is a bottom up view
( without the bottom there is no top down , there is nothing ! )
The cat must have had springs on it's feet to bounce this high!!!
I was expecting a bit of resistance at 5600 and particularly 5700, but that came and went in a blink of an eye.
A retest of 5700 followed by a good bounce off that would give me confidence that 6000 is on the card. Failure of 5700 could see a retest back to 5600.
Where it is now, is slightly below 5800. 7 trading session ago, that zone saw much consolidation, so one would expect 5800 to be good resistance level that should contain further increase.
Conditions are overbought and I'm thinking of some spec shorts back to 5700. Anyone with me on that?
Prefer roasted Japanese Whaler myself......
The reason I post this is, I am only interested in timing the re-entry into the general market.
Can this be improved upon without the inevitable risk of picking bottoms?
Vote 1 whale meat!
Funny thing i saw on the news. they interviewed a fella in Japan who ran a whale meat biz. He told the reporter " they're just big fish I don't see the big deal" I love that this is his area of expertise and he thinks they're fish!
ok back to topic, i think down on Tuesday, no hang on maybe up!
For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............
XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.
Focus
Since the uptrend from 03 seems to be broken, I'm also going with a change of trend from the August low, because that seems to be the signal that things were going to slow down a bit. So far I think the new trend for maybe the next few months or year, until the US settles down, will be more sideways with a good chance of being slowly up.
In summary I am leaning toward the XAO coming back to around 6,000 shortly... if it goes the other way and we get a weekly candle below the 100 fib, then I will have to conceed a bear market... maybe.
Ok bears come and get me... if you can!
From last weekend:
So far so good. The XAO came back as expected, not quite 6,000, but near enough. On the weekly although the tail went below 100% the weekly candle finished above the 78.6%, so I not going bearish yet.
There is another technical reason to support my assumptions, but I will keep that one to myself for now, just in case I've made a complete balls-up... except to say that it's about proportion.
I'm not expecting much retracement in the next week, ie I will be very surprised if it goes below 5,700. Provided Bush gets his finger out and delivers the 'rescue package' asap fwiw and gives a good state of the union address and the Fed doesn't dissapoint the market by reneging on another cut,I expect the market to trend in the post Aug 07 low SDC and push up beyond the post Oct high SDC in the coming weeks... just to disprove a down trend and confirm consolidation or continuing slower Bull run.
This chart looks like a bowl full of uncooked spagetti
It does a bit and one could say the market is like that at the moment... but I know what it means.:
This is a great chart Motorway - the Bullish Percent chart at this post, have not seen a better display of sentiment/psychology - whatever it is called. I don't imagine it is intended as a stand-alone tool, but what a great adjunct to other tools. Going through my head now are all sorts of possibilities for using something along these lines on an intra-day basis ...bottom-up sentiment indicator, how handy would that be for SPI traders etc?
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