XAO Technical Analysis

Kauri · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I wish there was some actual commentary here : We've had 3 days straight of fairly significant gains, even at the end of the week of the long weekend, yet - no one's calling a bottom? Any T/A insight? Some form of pattern?

I keep wanting to re-enter (at least, temporarily), but am concerned of what this rally actually 'is'. I keep thinking the day I enter, we'll plummet 10% the next day :

Forget the bottom, have we once again hit the 'top' of this rally? Is the next resistance level 5900 or 6000?

I guess I want a crystal ball! Darn, I wish a bottom could be called without hindsight :

More to the point... how do you see it..
It will be you investing your money ..
for mine the bottom is well and truly in....
until it sags...
and another bottom surfaces.....
Cheers
.........Kauri

Nyden · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
More to the point... how do you see it..
It will be you investing your money ..
for mine the bottom is well and truly in....
until it sags...
and another bottom surfaces.....
Cheers
.........Kauri

Oh, I do personally believe the bottom has been reached; but at the same time ... I seem to be convinced that this isn't going to last.

juw177 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nick, 5800 has already been broken through. Any change in your analysis?

Nick Radge · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

No. I'm wrong if we break up through 6100. The higher this bounce goes the less likely we'll see 4800 in the near term and more likely we'll see 4800 as the larger wave pattern unfolds.

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Very good article... but that was written shortly after the crash.... I wonder what they will be saying now?

This latest rally has smashed 5900 and looks to challenge 6000... do they still think 4800 is the utlimate target now?? I'd like to know what they think.

My feel is that 5200 was the bottom... it was tested twice and failed to breach. Now with aggressive cuts on the table, fraud by SG and their 'rouge trader' was the reason for the massive sell-offs, strong and healthy AU ecomony, still relatively strong Chinda growth.... how can you say that the worse is yet to come?

This is just August all over again...

I feel sorry for all those traders that had their account smashed and lost heaps of money, only to see the market bounce back within hours... this is such a cruel game....

finnsk · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

From memory in May 2006 the market went down a lot and then back up and then back lower again I was long ZFX from $13.00 sold at bottom just under $10.00 with in a week back upto $12.50 then back down to $8.00 so it will not surprise me if we are going back down again

MR. · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

“this is such a cruel game“

That is exactly what it is a “game” Watch whats happening. I hope Nick reply's. One of the first things I look at when reading posts is how long the poster has been trading. (ASF anyway)
What their motives are you don't know.

I think its a bit like “Time in the market, not Timing the market”
Everyone knows the market will one day be higher.
And in my words “with companies profits inflated from all sorts of easy money over the last few years, it is going to go down.” Sorry I can't draw.

motorway · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
It's a worthwhile question to get you thinking...so relatively speaking, it could always be worse or better than August.

BOTH

Sentiment was worse ( maybe an all time worse )
hence it was also better

and where did the volume come in ?
and what happened ?

motorway

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.

Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?

Wasn't this a similar thing that happened to the days leading up to the 'crash'? Overseas fund managers pulled out of all long trades knowing that things were going to get worse? As they sold off their longs, they depressed prices causing a domino effect?

Anyway this is all just speculation and theories.

MR. · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Copied the following two posts from Imminent and severe market correction thread. Both are dated 4th April 2007
And it repeats over and over.......

KENNAS
Oh no, here we go again. I anticipate another round of doomsayers claiming the world is about to implode because the market is toppy and the US housing sector looks ill. This has been going on for some time. Eventually they will be right of course.

I look forward to the bears rampaging across this thread with gusto.

PORPER
We've been hearing this so much even I got sucked in and have been shorting the market for months.Obviously losing a rather large chunk of my profits for the year

Any sane person would be going with the market and not fighting against it.

Bound to crash now

M34N · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.

Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?

Wasn't this a similar thing that happened to the days leading up to the 'crash'? Overseas fund managers pulled out of all long trades knowing that things were going to get worse? As they sold off their longs, they depressed prices causing a domino effect?

Anyway this is all just speculation and theories.

There could be something to this.

My example: CBA. It was $52.75 at 4:00PM, then at the 4:10PM close, $53.71. That's a near 2% rise at close, on a blue-chip stock. Also BHP; $36.35 > $36.80. All the banks had big gains at the close, note NAB and ANZ.

Some big buying at the close on a long weekend, during these market conditions? Buying into banks of all things! Something is going on alright.

But it's scary to think what will happen over the next 2 trading sessions in the US, and a FOMC meeting coming up after a 0.75% emergency rate cut -- could there be more left to come? Drop more or hold steady?

It's going to be very volatile, that's for sure.

IFocus · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
ok, i was just talking to a friend (who can obtain information from people in the trade) that today's MASSIVE rally was due to force buying. A majority of the rally was not from local fund managers, but more likely from overseas hedge funds that wanted to close out their shorts before the weekend. it was a case of "close the position at all costs". As they close, they pushed prices higher and higher causing many local traders to close out their shorts adding fuel to the fire.

Makes me think that if they wanted to get out of their shorts so desperately,... what do they know that we don't? Do they expect higher prices?

Wasn't this a similar thing that happened to the days leading up to the 'crash'? Overseas fund managers pulled out of all long trades knowing that things were going to get worse? As they sold off their longs, they depressed prices causing a domino effect?

Anyway this is all just speculation and theories.

If so then I would imagine its simply about risk next trading day is after two sessions of US and Europe

Buffettology · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
This latest rally has smashed 5900 and looks to challenge 6000... do they still think 4800 is the utlimate target now?? I'd like to know what they think.

My feel is that 5200 was the bottom... it was tested twice and failed to breach. Now with aggressive cuts on the table, fraud by SG and their 'rouge trader' was the reason for the massive sell-offs, strong and healthy AU ecomony, still relatively strong Chinda growth.... how can you say that the worse is yet to come?

I was just talking to the smartest guy I know who works professionally in the market for about 20 years now. This guy is insane with his predictions and trades (not a value investor like me, but a complete and utter freak trader) and he beleives we have reached our bottom at 5200. This guy works for one of the worlds largest banks, in charge of equity for the firm in India, Hong Kong and China.

On another note, I talked to probably the second smartest guy I know who works in the markets (not with quiet the same success), but has years beyond many I know and experience unrivaled in world stockmarkets, and he beleives the bottom is well below 5200. This guy is a professional trader and has done so for a living for years.

ha ha. Its really a mixed bag.

My opinion, I dont have a clue anymore! I closed some positions today, will close some more if the market goes higher on Monday, but I think we are definately in for a LOT more volatility of which we will see before we get much past the 6000 mark. But hey, opinions at the moment, dont mean much!

wayneL · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Buffettology said:
I was just talking to the smartest guy I know who works professionally in the market for about 20 years now. This guy is insane with his predictions and trades (not a value investor like me, but a complete and utter freak trader) and he beleives we have reached our bottom at 5200. This guy works for one of the worlds largest banks, in charge of equity for the firm in India, Hong Kong and China.

On another note, I talked to probably the second smartest guy I know who works in the markets (not with quiet the same success), but has years beyond many I know and experience unrivaled in world stockmarkets, and he beleives the bottom is well below 5200. This guy is a professional trader and has done so for a living for years.

ha ha. Its really a mixed bag.

My opinion, I dont have a clue anymore! I closed some positions today, will close some more if the market goes higher on Monday, but I think we are definately in for a LOT more volatility of which we will see before we get much past the 6000 mark. But hey, opinions at the moment, dont mean much!

At least we've narrowed it down to two possibilities:

Buffettology · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
At least we've narrowed it down to two possibilities:

ha ha, exactly my point!

Nobody has an absolute clue, so do what you want, your guess as is good as the next persons! Expert or not!

korrupt_1 · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

great... buffetology's 2 smartest friends have conflicting ideas.... we're doomed!!! but i'd go with the smartest guy's views.... he is the smartest for a reason, yeh?

anyway, i'm going to make a scrafical offering this weekend for guidance... maybe a lamb... then at least i can throw it on the BBQ afterwards for the AU day weekend

(appologies to vegetarians and animal rights people... i'll just go to my butcher instead...)

insider · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
(appologies to vegetarians and animal rights people... i'll just go to my butcher instead...)

People are too politically correct these days... Have whale instead
i say

Nyden · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I think everyone needs to lay off the liquor tonight, everyone's just a hint too silly! :

roland · 25 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I think everyone needs to lay off the liquor tonight, everyone's just a hint too silly! :

well it is the night before Australia Day, we have a duty to be a bit silly!

roland · 26 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

US futures are looking good, hopefully a long weekend won't dampen the mood.

XAO Technical Analysis

Kauri

E/W Learner

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

juw177

Nick Radge

korrupt_1

finnsk

MR.

motorway

korrupt_1

MR.

M34N

IFocus

You are arguing with a Galah

Buffettology

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Buffettology

korrupt_1

insider

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

roland

roland

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XAO Technical Analysis

E/W Learner

G.E. Money Genie

You are arguing with a Galah

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

G.E. Money Genie

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