XAO Technical Analysis

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'd be intersted to see some stats on if you bought the index at the start, or 'bottom' of a crash, on how well off you'd be.

I have some spare beer money right now....

Bushman · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
And on the 12th day, the market said; those who did not learn from yesterday's smiting have been smited some more.

So the record breaking streak has extended to 12 days. Anyone want to go for 13? All depends on the US tonight. Many shall be staying up late I suspect. No poll on my blog today, might start one here though

Is the excitement getting to you Dhukka? Your graph shows 22/01/09.

I hope 22/01/2009 will be showing a nice stable 1% rise as we reach the bottom of the bear market and sail off into the sunset once again. Or, more likely, the bulls take their Red Bull and the next asset bubble emerges.

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some more useless tidbits:

After today's close the XAO has shed -24% from it's closing high on November 1st. In the last bear market the XAO shed -22% from peak to trough which ran from March 2002 (peak) to March 2003 (trough). In two and half months the XAO has shed more than the entire decline of the last bear market.

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
Is the excitement getting to you Dhukka? Your graph shows 22/01/09.

I hope 22/01/2009 will be showing a nice stable 1% rise as we reach the bottom of the bear market and sail off into the sunset once again. Or, more likely, the bulls take their Red Bull and the next asset bubble emerges.

You got me there Bushman, obviously it is getting to me. I'll make the requisite changes in time for lucky 13 tomorrow.

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Some more useless tidbits:

After today's close the XAO has shed -24% from it's closing high on November 1st. In the last bear market the XAO shed -22% from peak to trough which ran from March 2002 (peak) to March 2003 (trough). In two and half months the XAO has shed more than the entire decline of the last bear market.

Time to back up the truck then?

What is that gambling principle where you bet against the streak???

My 'support' lines have been decimated.

Back to the taxi....

nikki · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

isn't a drop below 20-24% as part of a correction a once in a 20-30 year event. is there this much fear in the market about the fundamentals of our companies and economy. . . . . . .

a broker i am read was saying that there wasn't panic selling today ........ anyone have a sense of volumes to know if this was the case or not!!!! how does one judge panic selling......

Temjin · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I'm kinda following some of the HK based internet forums on their stock market, and believe me, the general "mood" there is a lot more pessimistic than we have here. At least we can crack a joke or two in times like this. People are talking about SUICIDING and how much in DEBT they are in over there. Plus blaming on the Amercians. hah

Anyone got the data for the longest losing streak the index have had since its introduction? How many 13s, 14s, 15s?

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Time to back up the truck? Not quite but I'm having a dip. I bought my first stock in 14 months today. Could have been a big mistake. Oh well, time will tell. I just see too many bargains everywhere.

IFocus · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Finally real volume on wide range bar a lot more people came to market today, depending on the US tonight may get a chance of narrower range tomorrow but those expanding bars don't look good

trading_rookie · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Closed at 5222...Can't recall who it was but I think it was Lateline Business' last show for the year and Ali's guest was predicting the XAO would close the year at 7000pts!

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
Time to back up the truck? Not quite but I'm having a dip. I bought my first stock in 14 months today. Could have been a big mistake. Oh well, time will tell. I just see too many bargains everywhere.

Well done dhukka, I was a lemming selling today. However, because I'd been buying the past 14 months it may have made up for your non buying. Wonder if there's a way to quantify that?

Whatever the case, I agree that buying today is a long term positive in good stocks that will be the first to advantage in the flight to quality. Whatever they are....WOW, QBE ....

MS+Tradesim · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I took two dips today. Remains to be seen what will happen. Still tons of cash left though. In the meantime...... :alcohol:

moXJO · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

There were so many simple kinds of patterns setting up on different stocks (DT tris H&S etc) problem was at the time I thought the targets that they were pointing to were to low and dismissed them.Last few days has proved me wrong

CFD · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Finally real volume on wide range bar a lot more people came to market today, depending on the US tonight may get a chance of narrower range tomorrow but those expanding bars don't look good

Unfortunately you could not say the buying volume overcame the sellers, as was the case back in August.

What chance the Fed intervenes tonight?

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some more pointless statistics;

Today's decline was the biggest one day fall since October 16th 1989 when it plunged 8.12%. The -7.18% fall on October 28th 1997 was just eclipsed by today's 7.25% plunge.

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

CFD said:
Unfortunately you could not say the buying volume overcame the sellers, as was the case back in August.

What chance the Fed intervenes tonight?

Even if they do, would absolutely scream desperation. Could actually have the opposite effect.

You buyers sure are game

Whiskers · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The Aus market is so over-sold!

UNLESS it is the case that the US has finally infected the rest of the world with it's incurable disease.

The RSI is below 10, Williams -100 for last two days and three of twelve, and fast stockastic 0 for two days and three of twelve.

Looking at the chart, when you compare the DOW, Nasdaq or S&P 500 to the XAO, the XAO seems to have been more volatile lately, ie over-reacting to bad news from the US more so than the US markets themselves.

MS+Tradesim · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hmmm....history repeating itself? I am seeing distinct similarities with the 2001 initial crash. March 01 we have a sell-off followed by rally to a new high. This moves into an expanding channel (wedge?). Eventually selling pressure results in a plunge from the middle of the channel. Compare with where we are now in these two charts.

(EDIT: Ps. Highs on chart in 02 were followed by a second movement down to below Sep 01 low. Not looking that far ahead at moment)

M34N · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

SPI is still showing -71 at 7:00PM now, after losing over 7% today that's nearly another 1.5%, and it's still early days!

I shut down virtually all my positions today, some big losses incurred, but I fear what's coming tonight in the US is going to be even worse than what the Dow futures show; -641 for the Dow, how can there be any up-side potential? Seems we are doomed to go down for a 13th straight day.

Oh well, we had a good run for the past 4 years, and we had plenty of warning leading up to this latest crash, live and learn.

I also had to shake my head at this comment on the Portfolio page on E*Trade:

Please note that AFGHA, AFG, AHUG, AHUGA, AXQ, CGF, MFS and MFSG have been suspended from the ANZ E*TRADE Share Investment Loan Approved Securities List*. ANZ recommends that you closely monitor your margin loan. For further information please call the client services team on 1800 639 330 (Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm AEST).

* Approved Security List is subject to change without notice.

It only had MFS listed there yesterday, I wonder what else will be on that list tomorrow? BNB? MQG?

josjes · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
The Aus market is so over-sold!

UNLESS it is the case that the US has finally infected the rest of the world with it's incurable disease.

The RSI is below 10, Williams -100 for last two days and three of twelve, and fast stockastic 0 for two days and three of twelve.

Looking at the chart, when you compare the DOW, Nasdaq or S&P 500 to the XAO, the XAO seems to have been more volatile lately, ie over-reacting to bad news from the US more so than the US markets themselves.

Panic/Crash is rare. If it happens, all technical support resistance is out of the window. RSI, Stochastic measurement has no bearing. That's my view.

XAO Technical Analysis

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