XAO Technical Analysis

Kauri · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Not a hunch Was a bit of sarcasm really, as it's happened every day of the past 11!

My theory is; same reason the mornings differ from the middle of the day. People are all rushing for the door now before the close. Just as people were rushing for the door before the open. Based on an expected loss tomorrow, ugh, messy stuff.

Predicting the market direction is simple.. to about 75% accuracy.., same as predicting the weather.. fine today then fine tomorrow.... down today then down tomorrow.... I guess that's what trends are all about. .........really...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
Nah, it's to do with Margin Calls, which TH has pointed out, and trades off...

Well obviously, but that was already pointed out :

But, I honestly believe; rushing to the exit is playing a role there.

You can see on these very forums the progression of attitudes throughout the day, more people getting antsy & jumping ship. I believe this same attitute will continue until 4:10

Infact, heck - every 15 minutes on TV I'm hearing market crash (during the ad break). People are becoming very spooked, time to bunker down!

treefrog · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
This is what I have for the longer term trend, which is running at around 7% pa.

The blue line is currently about 4350, and the orange line about 3680.

GP

if we place the fib retrace projection on the mar03 to oct 07 run we get the 50% level at 4770 and 62% at 4290 - so nicely around your zone piggy

treefrog · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

ding dong!
is that avon calling??
nope, margin!

cordelia · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Well obviously, but that was already pointed out :

But, I honestly believe; rushing to the exit is playing a role there.

You can see on these very forums the progression of attitudes throughout the day, more people getting antsy & jumping ship. I believe this same attitute will continue until 4:10

Infact, heck - every 15 minutes on TV I'm hearing market crash (during the ad break). People are becoming very spooked, time to bunker down!

The general public is now heavily involved thanks to the media but it boils down to keeping an eye on your investments IMO and paying attention to what is going on in the world. Which is what I should have been doing all along. Fortunately I got out early......

I have heard a lot of people say "I will ride it out" but that depends on how long you are prepared to wait and how old you are......you could be dead before you recover your money.

I'm sure there are a lot of retirees out there thinking along those lines....

>Apocalypto< · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Latest US futures, not looking so nice.

tech/a · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

DJIA.

-700 + at sometime tonight.
Even a duck can see that.

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
DJIA.

-700 + at sometime tonight.
Even a duck can see that.

No you can't, that's just a downramp. Can you provide any reason for this, like your crash call this morning?

numbercruncher · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
No you can't, that's just a downramp. Can you provide any reason for this, like your crash call this morning?

Yah exactly same comment I made to him this morning, my favorite was his Friday comment when he said that absolutely no chance of Thursdays low being broken Monday

Pure lamp in the direction of his bets

chops_a_must · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
DJIA.

-700 + at sometime tonight.
Even a duck can see that.

I reckon we'll see -1000 at some point. H&S target there, lots of support...

Geez... our market really bent over in the last ten minutes didn't it? Poor thing... it's not nice seeing something sell their body out of necessity.

numbercruncher · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Im literally blown away by the sheer amount of sellers vrs buyers, shows just how much potential downwards pressure remains

Gundini · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
DJIA.

-700 + at sometime tonight.
Even a duck can see that.

Surely it wouldn't be hard to imagine -700 tonight, given the fall we had, and the fact they are double our index amount...

Scary thought just the same.

If tomorrow is Red, does this equal our longest run of down days, 13? EVER?

vishalt · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Absolutely vaporized, jesus christ Hang Seng down 10%.

I think the US market could do a lot worse than 500, the Dow is pretty liquid and could go quad figures in my opinion, so I hope everyone has some form of hedging or has taken a small loss lol.

I'm going more short!

Wow @ the banks and financials.

**** the US.

tech/a · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Prove---disprove---prove---disprove.

So ya onto me!

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

And on the 12th day, the market said; those who did not learn from yesterday's smiting have been smited some more.

So the record breaking streak has extended to 12 days. Anyone want to go for 13? All depends on the US tonight. Many shall be staying up late I suspect. No poll on my blog today, might start one here though

Gundini · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

If the truth be known, what is to stop the DOW dumping around 1100 points, or a tad over 10%. A lot of our stock closed 10% + down, majors, and the DOW futures are abysmal... Key support is bound to be smashed, around 12000, and I would consider the next major key level to be 11000.

Anyone disagree? The timing is right, the futures are saying it, while I don't believe it, it is their Monday (1st day of the week). What's going to stop it?

PPT?

powerkoala · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

12 days straight in the row.....
will the 13 days become miracle or doomsday ??
can't comment anymore

skating101 · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

who wants to short the dow with me heck ive already bet enough money on it already

MS+Tradesim · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

In 50yrs I'll be telling my grandkids "I reee-meemburr the keer-ash of 08."
"Yeh, sure gramps! *crazy old bugger's lost it*"

numbercruncher · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
In 50yrs I'll be telling my grandkids "I reee-meemburr the keer-ash of 08."
"Yeh, sure gramps! *crazy old bugger's lost it*"

LOL

And I only recoooped me losses on yer 10th Birthday sunny

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