XAO Technical Analysis

EZZA · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
Did we just witness a climax sell-off? Could this be the bottom (atleast in the short term?)

Any predictions on what the XAO/XJO will do on open? Panic sell-off followed by a big bounce?

I reckon it could be a bit of a bloodbath today, hoping not too much of one. i'm expecting a big dip at the start of the day hopefully with some value buying towards the end of the day.

ASX expected to open lower 22/01/2008 07:09AM AEST
The Australian share market is expected to open sharply lower on a negative lead from Asian and European markets and large falls in commodity prices. At 0700 AEDT on the Sydney Futures Exchange, the March share price index futures contract was down 158 points at 5,438. Today, the NAB business survey for December is released and retailer Harvey Norman Ltd releases second quarter sales data. The Australian stock market closed sharply lower yesterday, with $40 billion wiped off its value following losses in United States markets caused by lingering recession fears. It was the 11th weak session in a row and the longest losing streak in the market since January 1982. The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index fell 166.9 points, or 2.9 per cent, to 5,580.4, and the broader All Ordinaries shed 168.5 points, or 2.91 per cent, to 5630.9.

tech/a · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hold on to your seats.

If youve never been through a crash your about to!

This IS it!

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Hold on to your seats.

If youve never been through a crash your about to!

This IS it!

To be fair, we closed 168 down yesterday didn't we? Futures point to another drop of the same price, just saying. It isn't like we're going to plummet 500 pts today!

I think we're already half way into the crash!

arminius · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

that sounds fair enough cordelia.
but
is this not where a redistribution of wealth occurs? there are bucketloads of cash sitting in the banks of arabia, asia and russia. it is not in their interests to see the global financial system tank, and they can buy chunks of 'western' companies on the cheap.
to me, and im no expert, money doesnt disappear...it just goes somewhere else. in this instance to those people with new found productive capacity.

empires come and go. dubya bush et al have done more damage to the US than most beforehand, but other powers fill any void. im not saying the US is doomed, but it has slipped.

china, india, russia, S arabia etc cannot be ignored. and we are positioned well too. there are a lot of wealthy people in OZ, and a v large middle class. if the markets really tank, a chance exists for aussies to buy up big for a boom that will continue for decades.

just my 2 bobs worth.

dutchie · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Come on lets talk this market up.

Geez theres some bargains out there!!

LOL

treefrog · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Hold on to your seats.

If youve never been through a crash your about to!

This IS it!

a lot like the scene where the The Illinois Nazis are car chasing the Blues Brothers heading through a construction site. They break through several barricades (support and resistance levels), jam on the brakes, and stop just before they go off of a bridge. They slam the car into reverse and flip through the air to escape (go short after executing their trading stop) - But the Illinois Nazis didn't execute theirs at all and go over the bridge and fall and fall and fall - even when the sreet looms below (we assume that will stop the fall) but they go through the street on impact and keep going to an unknown bottom somewhere - maybe. - they held their long positions

Kauri · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

seat of pants navigating now... but the theory (for wht it is worth) says todays drop will put us in a typical W3 area... will the PPT/PKO then pull us up into a W4... or is Newtons law all the way... interesting to say the least...
Cheers
..........Kauri

dhukka · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

dhukka said:
And on the 11th day the market said, "I shall smite thee that have gone long."

Well that's one for the record books, taking out the 10 consecutive day decline in 1990. This is the first time in 24 years (that's all the data I have) that the XAO declined 11 days in a row. Any takers for tomorrow? Poll on my blog for any that are interested.

Only 9 respondents to yesterday's poll. All 9 voted for 12 days consecutive declines, no surprises there.

wayneL · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

SPI opens -215

numbercruncher · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Hold on to your seats.

If youve never been through a crash your about to!

This IS it!

Id consider that a ramp to benefit your short.

L plates · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't !!

This is a crash that started yesterday.
Have a look at the world indices, most have begun a massive sell off that no doubt will continue today.
Hope you have bars on your windows if you're up high !!

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like a bounce off 5400 ish support at the moment. Follow though might depend on Asia.

rub92me · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

First small bounce happening; will it be bouncing all the way down again though?

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

rub92me said:
First small bounce happening; will it be bouncing all the way down again though?

What about the Comsec factor? Half the sellers might not have even been able to post their orders through yet!

tech/a · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Its NOT today you need worry about.

Its tommorow AFTER US trading.

Asian Indexes will only reflect in general terms their outlook on the US.
Of course there are 2 days of leading indicators here.

Add 50% for underestimate and well----you get the picture.
Todays the Entree,tommorow the Main course,and there will be desert.(Rally followed by Coffee).

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Its NOT today you need worry about.

Its tommorow AFTER US trading.

Asian Indexes will only reflect in general terms their outlook on the US.
Of course there are 2 days of leading indicators here.

Add 50% for underestimate and well----you get the picture.
Todays the Entree,tommorow the Main course,and there will be desert.(Rally followed by Coffee).

Agreed Tech.

I posted on the other thread that I believed tomorrow to be the day of reckoning :

We're currently 100pts ahead of the FTSE as well, I think today we've got much further to drop.

Sean K · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Looks like a bounce off 5400 ish support at the moment. Follow though might depend on Asia.

Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.

Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....

Nyden · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.

Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....

Maybe the 4400? :

chops_a_must · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Yikes, maybe 5300 support? Hooly dooly.

Capitulation? Will depend how we end the day won't it. Way up off lows and maybe. At the bottom, and golly.....

Pull up a chart of BHP. That's telling the story atm. Breaks here and bye bye :flush:

Kauri · 22 January 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Was looking for a fourth wave around here, but it seems the fifth column has it for the time being.
Cheers
.........Kauri

XAO Technical Analysis

EZZA

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

Nyden

G.E. Money Genie

arminius

dutchie

treefrog

Kauri

E/W Learner

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dhukka

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numbercruncher

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Sean K

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