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XAO Banter Thread

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sinner said:
Hehe, those were a list of examples? Sorry, I can show whichever you like, but please specify exactly which one ...also with the caveat I prob don't have 1000 bars of monthly data for anything but the SP500 and US credit?
Click to expand...

I guess I'm more interested in the general theme, as opposed to specific patterns. Did you find that the bigger the time frame, the more reliable? It seems this way for the patterns I track.
 
Chart shows regime change from mean-reverting (blue) to trending (yellow).
 

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Interesting GB, how can you use that for your trading?
 
Gringotts Bank said:
Not sure if I can yet.

Trying to figure out a system for trading STW based on this.
Click to expand...

I can think of a few, just thinking out loud, i'm sure sinner would give you a more acemdemic perspective.

1.) Strategy filter for an Index System - Switched between MR and TF

2.) Use as a simple Index filter to turn a TF system on and off, i.e. from cash to invested.
 

The signals aren't actually as good as they look in the chart I posted.

You can have a play around with it yourself: http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2013/02/TradersTips.html#item6
 
78.6% retrace of the big drop is providing the resistance.
 

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Gringotts Bank said:
I guess I'm more interested in the general theme, as opposed to specific patterns. Did you find that the bigger the time frame, the more reliable? It seems this way for the patterns I track.
Click to expand...

Generally, yes. But this is an artifact of using time based charts, because while you might find a 20 week closing high has better 5 bar returns than a 20 day closing highs 5 bar returns, obviously the test is not comparing equivalents, the second test could also be said "1 week closing high returns only on Fridays with 1 week holding period".
 

Nope I agree with what you said.
 
The market could go sideways or keep drifting up for the rest of the year but I think the real story is going to be churn especially post this reporting season. Some sectors are trading at 30x P/E and others at 6x P/E. Forecasts will be adjusted and so too the P/Es.

I've gone long gold miners, oilers and retailers recently and also dabbling with a few mining services. Gone short banks. Also bought some listed property trusts (commercial and leisure) because I still want some income dribbling into the pension account.

Setting my stops and watching.
 


The Aussie stock holders held firm through the DJ 900 point pullback while today saw a break higher. I was looking for a bearish market but with low interest rates, are billions being poured into stocks???
 
Greece needs another bail out.
US Debt ceiling is about to be debated again.
And tapering will probably start this month.
Knew comers to the crisis, India and Indonesia, have fallen off a cliff.
Is China becoming the consumer economy?
No.
The market rallied because manufacturing is picking up according to the BS peddled by it's leaders.

That kind of thing used to be known as a crisis.

Now?

Everythings looking pretty good and market PEs are pretty much sitting at long term average.


Yawn. Complacency for dinner again tonight.

(don't mention the war)
 
Markets across all regions seem to be on a trot lately. Shanghai composite is on run - will it turn the corner?

I form some of my sentiment from listening to chartist Lance Lai. His most recent prognostications:
http://www.switzer.com.au/video/lai-20130910/

Does anyone know if Lance is regularly published elsewhere?

Another pull-back on the Aussie market some time in Sept-Oct might see the formation of a nice inverted head and shoulders on the weekly chart. Otherwise I would be happy for a leisurely trot up to 5400 by the end of the calendar year.

I'm keeping my eye on the copper chart. The chart could be seen as a falling wedge or a descending triangle (depending on how much weight you give to the oct 11 and june 13 lows). It looks set to break one way or another - the more likely direction seems up to me. It's been a while since it has crossed over the 200 day MA (Feb 2013).
 
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