Country Lad
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XAO Banter Thread
- Thread starter clayton4115
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FMG, AGO decent breakouts on low volume.
Property stocks - many have breakouts over the last few days and holding. Some weak, some stronger Yield I guess.
DYE
Property stocks - many have breakouts over the last few days and holding. Some weak, some stronger Yield I guess.
DYE
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Banging into 4860 - will it hold below 4880 ?
if it can there may be a serious rejection coming
still intending to sell the down move
still see strength coming from US which may propel market up through resistance
- A few bad reporting sessions could kill it off but at this stage unknown still
thoughts ?
if it can there may be a serious rejection coming
still intending to sell the down move
still see strength coming from US which may propel market up through resistance
- A few bad reporting sessions could kill it off but at this stage unknown still
thoughts ?
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What's bothering me is the patterns I'm seeing. There's a heck of a lot of near breakouts over the past week, with prices sitting right on the trendline for days on end. I don't like that. The ones that did breakout have almost all been weak performers.
The chart below shows the recent further downward pressure being exerted on the A$. It has broken resoundingly through support at $0.97 and $0.93 and the downward trend certainly looks like it has some way to play out. Primary support appears to sit at around $0.80.
The clear question is: how sustainable will the current rally in the ASX 200 be in the face of further pressure on the Australian dollar? From May 20 to June 25 the A$ fell about 5% against the US$. The local ASX 200 fell over 10% in the same period.
The clear question is: how sustainable will the current rally in the ASX 200 be in the face of further pressure on the Australian dollar? From May 20 to June 25 the A$ fell about 5% against the US$. The local ASX 200 fell over 10% in the same period.
tinhat
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A year or two ago it was the high AUD that was the cause of stock price woes (especially in relation to the bullish S&P500). Now its because the AUD is falling. It's a tough game.
Garpal Gumnut
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For what it's worth I reckon the XAO has bottomed atm, most heavy stocks have consolidated at reasonable lows and my RSI's are showing a quite significant divergence on the stocks I buy and sell.
So I'm buying ++
gg
So I'm buying ++
gg
You may well be right GG. Up today and, at this stage, looking like another positive day tomorrow... Or are we just going sideways - up a bit - down a bit -- Very hard to have any confidence in this market imo. It seems we get quite significant reactions to any taste of good or poor news. I gather volumes are still low?
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I'm starting to think it's topped out for the moment. Maybe a pullback to say... 4847 or 4903 Fib retracement.
skc
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Uncle Bens testimony tonight so anything goes.
Hands up anyone who's still awake watching the SPI... 5 pt range since lunch...
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Looking for a break of 4960 to confirm weakness and shorts down - to break the recent range of 4960 - 5015. If not, then still waiting for a break above for continuation.
Either way there are signals coming...thoughts ?
The US was a big battle overnight with nothing to show for it - perhaps worth noting in itself.
Either way there are signals coming...thoughts ?
The US was a big battle overnight with nothing to show for it - perhaps worth noting in itself.
Country Lad
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Interesting observation CC.
What I have noticed in the scans over the past couple of weeks is that by far the majority look very "toppy". Just an impression based on the charts and price movements, but similar to periods before many of the previous downturns.
Cheers
Country Lad
What I have noticed in the scans over the past couple of weeks is that by far the majority look very "toppy". Just an impression based on the charts and price movements, but similar to periods before many of the previous downturns.
Cheers
Country Lad
tech/a
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Hmmm
I dont think so.
Seeing some similarities in the daily and weekly.
Looking for a small pull back 4900 ish then 5350 at least.
If that comes off 6000 a distinct possibility.
I dont think so.
Seeing some similarities in the daily and weekly.
Looking for a small pull back 4900 ish then 5350 at least.
If that comes off 6000 a distinct possibility.
skc
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Yes but only if you look at the stocks that's performed well in the last 12 months. Financials, REITs, stables and selected industrials are at multi-year highs and some of them do look toppy, esp with lofty EPS growth estimates that may be trimmed back in the upcoming reporting season.
The next phase of up move in the XAO however will have to come from the resources space imo. And plenty of them are forming potential bottoms. Many of these stocks are sold down to levels much ahead of actual EPS or commodity price declines.
I don't know if a resource-led push up is terribly sustainable or how many points there are in it... but it's a pretty plausible scenario for the next quarter.
nulla nulla
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It appears that your first chart displays the market movement over a period of several years where-as your second chart displays the market movement over a period of 8 months or so. Not a true comparison.
Sure. I didn't intend for it to be predictive. I was just interested in the shape. I personally don't think the fact that the time scales are different really matters. Is a head and shoulders less reliable because it happens over 3 years vs 3 months?
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I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable. But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered. In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.
Trembling Hand
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Err you sure about that? Other than folklore you have any evidence that the statement that H&S patterns are reliable?
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