But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered.
I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable. But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered. In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.
Err you sure about that? Other than folklore you have any evidence that the statement that H&S patterns are reliable?
The more perfect the pattern, the more I rub my hands with glee and go in with size for the fls brk.
Moreso futures than equities.
I'd say in general the longer the time frame, the more reliable. But the pattern has to be very symmetrical, neat and uncluttered. In other words it has to be obvious to all those who make the prices move - the institutions.
The point I am making is that the time frame it is measured over does not of itself affect the reliability of the pattern. So if you believe a H&S is reliable (am not saying it is) or any other pattern for that matter, it should be reliable over a short time period or a longer one.
My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.
My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.
My experience is the opposite of this. Timeframe plays a huge role into the reliability of a "pattern", at least those which you can quantitatively define and therefore test.
Do you have any evidence to back up your claim that the time frame does not affect the reliability of the pattern? I can easily show backtests which invalidate this claim.
I don't like the way the market is now.
Sinner can I see your backtests on pattern reliability and time frame please?
Sure, pick a quant pattern, and two timeframes, and I can show you 1000 bar results for both.
say descending triangle, daily vs weekly vs monthly.
say descending wedge, upwards breakout, daily vs weekly and weekly versus monthly.
[edited]
Maybe I should've given some examples: 20 day closing high, last bar in lowest 20% of N day range, Close above 20 day closing average price...hold for N days.
I don't like the way the market is now. Needs some fear in it
Agree. I felt that in the last 12 months we'd finally moved out of the skittishness of the GFC, and massive swings between overly optimistic and overly pessimistic. It felt like global macro-economic news was being incorporated into movements - ie. good news = market up, bad news = market down. Since the "tapering" comment, where we had a brief pull back, optimism is clearly in charge again, and nothing seems to be tempering the move up. FOMO but quite concerned that there seems to be a lot of collective back-patting going on.
That example is fine thanks.
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