XAO Banter Thread

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

That's right Mr.B, you can find lots of news to blame it on...that's what the journo's are good at...never mind that people just want to take profits/no one wants to buy anymore, we needed a technical correction. Its too hard to explain and doesn't sell adverts...

FWIW, i don't think this is the big one yet, maybe just a correction. Seems too easy for the big one...

CanOz

Yes could be a sign of worse to come, the US looks particularly soft.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Hardly surprising the market continues to fall -

Treasury secretary Martin Parkinson calls for calm over WA recession fears = panic

Asbestos TLS - no big deal maybe..........= mild panic

Union raises fears that Telstra communication pits contain deadly banned pesticide dieldrin - starting to look iffy there

Money pouring out of Australia -

and to top it off -

ABC refutes claims of axe for Bananas In Pyjamas

It will turn when all this subsides.

MrBurns,

It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

MrBurns,

It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately

So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?

I know the media , don't worry about that but true or not they effect the market.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?

I know the media , don't worry about that but true or not they effect the market.

Not the domestic media. they haven't a friggin clue.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

The mood of the market is negative. Mainstream media try to play it down but the exodus of off-shore investor money trying to get out before the drop in the Aud$ erodes any capital gains on our shares is in full flight.

 

[McLovin]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Last week the market was falling because the US economy was improving and QE might be ending. This week the market is falling because the US economy isn't improving as quickly as it was last week.

I think they just have a rotating bag of headlines to explain every outcome.

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Not the domestic media. they haven't a friggin clue.

You can feel the negativity in the air, a few weeks ago it was different, cant explain it, it started when the money started flowing out of Oz, then the Telstra thing, now WA almost in recession, no big deal but it's all negative and all adds up.

 

[prawn_86]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

So you don't think the current downturn has anything to do with what happening in the world ?

I think it has nothing to do with what the mainstream media reports. Do you honestly think big hedge fund traders etc get their news from The Age, or is it only the piddly retail traders who are down the bottom of the investment chain that take any notice of it?

There has been negativity in the air for the last 4 - 5 years, everyone is still hanging out for the boom days that aren't coming back

 

[MrBurns]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

I think it has nothing to do with what the mainstream media reports. Do you honestly think big hedge fund traders etc get their news from The Age,

No the Age gets their news from them and follows their lead on these matters, plus if there's bad economic news it feeds through.
The mainstream news is just one source of information.

 

[CanOz]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

If you want to see how the sentiment is then watch what the market does on big news days and the day after. In a bull market nothing can stop that train...even bad news gets run over. Then all of the sudden, like you said, things change and even the relatively good economic numbers are taken totally differently. Then that catches the media off guard and they start wrapping stories around it so they can explain it...they don't understand the market structure so they need to use something that they do understand, and the moms and pops understand. Then all of the sudden, the big move in the market was because of blah blah....

Its amazing to see, once you are able to see it. You see when you are looking at the market through the structure of the market, you are able to tell when a move is likely....and that's usually the result of news a while back already or news that not even released yet, in some cases.

Interesting subject though. Can't help but laugh the way the Muppets wrap the stores around the price actions.

If you want to see news affect prices then you need to watch intra-day prices, the US esp.

CanOz

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

If you want to see how the sentiment is then watch what the market does on big news days and the day after. In a bull market nothing can stop that train...even bad news gets run over. Then all of the sudden, like you said, things change and even the relatively good economic numbers are taken totally differently. Then that catches the media off guard and they start wrapping stories around it so they can explain it...they don't understand the market structure so they need to use something that they do understand, and the moms and pops understand. Then all of the sudden, the big move in the market was because of blah blah....

Its amazing to see, once you are able to see it. You see when you are looking at the market through the structure of the market, you are able to tell when a move is likely....and that's usually the result of news a while back already or news that not even released yet, in some cases.

Interesting subject though. Can't help but laugh the way the Muppets wrap the stores around the price actions.

If you want to see news affect prices then you need to watch intra-day prices, the US esp.

CanOz

Unless the news is two planes flying into the WTC. Would have liked the days before newspaper for that one.

 

[Zedd]

RE: Media and Markets

I got this in a newsletter just before the recent movements:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to US Congress tonight has the clear potential to be a market moving event for the simple reason very people believe he will say anything different.

That in itself is potentially a bit of a problem because any confirmation of “no new stimulus” is going to help the US Dollar and hinder those denominated in USD.

However, unlike previously benign, market friendly Bernanke testimony, I get the feeling tonight’s testimony could actually mention the words “tapering” or “exit plan”.

Those two words have been consistently used in recent weeks in the well-connected (to the Fed) Wall St Journal (WSJ) and I can’t help but think that was the Fed selectively leaking those words to soften markets up for their delivery by Chairman Bernanke tonight.

Don’t get me wrong, I could be completely incorrect in my view, but the WSJ was weeks ahead on QE2/QE3 and I just can’t help but wonder whether they have the same early directed mail on “tapering” or “exit plan”.

What I do know is if Bernanke does mention the words “tapering” or “exit plan” it will have a major effect on the US Dollar. Quite simply, even if Bernanke doesn’t give a firm date for that QE wind-down process to start, the investment markets across all asset classes will start their own “exit plan”, with the US Dollar being the major beneficiary of short USD carry trade unwinds.

Thought it was interesting to see someone commenting on something so inane, and yet called the outcome perfectly. Also interesting to see the media seemingly ahead of the money for once.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

MrBurns,

It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately

I suspect you may have missed the cynicism in his post, where-in the ABC's axing of Banana's in Pajama's is a significant economic influence.

 

[nulla nulla]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

Unless the news is two planes flying into the WTC. Would have liked the days before newspaper for that one.

Or the day afters newspaper before close of trade the day before.

 

[CanOz]

RE: Media and Markets

I got this in a newsletter just before the recent movements:



Thought it was interesting to see someone commenting on something so inane, and yet called the outcome perfectly. Also interesting to see the media seemingly ahead of the money for once.

Yup, that's pretty much what happened. Thats news that can move markets...but...the structure of the market was likely ready for that as well, in other words no new longer time frame players had initiate anymore longs, many have increased their short positions, months ago.

 

[MrBurns]

Still declining, I'll let you know what's happening after it's over.............like most "experts"

 

[Trembling Hand]

Still declining, I'll let you know what's happening after it's over.............like most "experts"

Nah will get a run up from 2 pm today into the close. That will keep the up trend in stocks like TLS, CBA etc for next week to push higher.....

 

[CanOz]

Nah will get a run up from 2 pm today into the close. That will keep the up trend in stocks like TLS, CBA etc for next week to push higher.....

huh?

 

[Trembling Hand]

huh?

Just offering an opinion before the event. The markets V.short here. Friday arvo counter move is the normal play.

 

[Paul Woodward]

Re: XAO Technical Analysis

MrBurns,

It will help your investing immensely if you pay scant attention to the mainstream media here in Aus (or most countries for that matter). Their job is to create headlines people read, not financially accurate, fact based articles unfortunately

By the time the news hits the main media it's too late. Those in the know have already taken their positions and the main media is playing into their hands what they want.