XAO Banter Thread

[Dark1975]

personally think it will take a lot more than bad jobless numbers to set this correction snowball into motion a proper yet.......

people out there still trying to buy the weakness

im finding it hard to read anything more than short term currently tho

I do see what you are saying,But i think personally it's a long awaited correction to take place for many traders like myself.Or you could be right just a pause or consolidation period.
But in saying that,We are in new uncharted territory,I mean we usally look on a technical view try to plot or predict the future either with ew/fab/gann or using announcements as e.g: lehmans collaspe as the catalyst for the start of the snowball.
But in saying this,the past crashes can't be compared due to the different economic enviroment.I mean the goverments of the world have come together with open cheque-books of optimism with stimulas packages(never seen done before).Altho maybe people think with so much money in play in play the bulls will ride for a while.
But this can't last forever,as we in australia don't see the harshness of the recession,Our country really should be the apple,Every other country should be watching us in terms of resilience(but this is far from the point).In short i spoke to my friends in the U.S,and it aint all green shoots,Altho people will say in the media it's all good.(it ain't).
In short no jobs/no consumer confidence...no more major announcements from reports for a month,So in hence this could set the tone for at the next month.

 

[clayton4115]

yea, i feel this thread is to express opinions not backed up by any technical indicators, thats what the XAO Analysis thread is.

now back to my opinions on the market

given the market fell 55% from top to bottom, and now we went up 55% from bottom to top, i think we could fall given these to relationships!!!

 

[jancha]

Has anyone thought to make a DOW/XAO Thread as they serve hand in hand. The dow is a good indicator on where the xao is heading,People will argue we don't follow the dow,and we have decoupled from it,But ive traded for the past 6 years now and used the dow as a good guide on where we are heading.Hmm as the dow currently a 132 points down in the futures.Points to a change in momentum and the xao will follow,question is will 4525 hold up on the xao when trading resumes.

I agree that in general we follow the DOW but for how much longer?

 

[Joe Blow]

yea, i feel this thread is to express opinions not backed up by any technical indicators, thats what the XAO Analysis thread is.

So I can't help but wonder what the basis for these opinions are?

A hunch, tea leaves, taxi driver, crystal ball, ouija board?

 

[clayton4115]

i'm giving you a reason for my opinions, if you care to read the full length of my post.

 

[Joe Blow]

i'm giving you a reason for my opinions, if you care to read the full length of my post.

given the market fell 55% from top to bottom, and now we went up 55% from bottom to top, i think we could fall given these to relationships!!!

Can you please explain these relationships in a little more detail and why you believe they mean the market is now going to fall?

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at.

 

[drsmith]

In October 1988 and October 1993 the XAO rose.

 

[skc]

thinks monday will be an intresting sort of day as it is being a public holiday in various parts of oz ...... will it be a little less volume out there? one would thinkso

I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.

 

[nunthewiser]

I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.

nope

apparently a trading day but a non settlement day

i could be wrong

 

[clayton4115]

well i don't really have a full blown technical explanation per se, if i did i would share it in the XAO analysis thread,

its just that we have had a full 2% fall, the market has gone up 55% in a very short space of time and now i feel we are going to retrace 10-15%.

 

[nunthewiser]

taken from ASX trading calender


Labour Day Monday 5 October NSW / SA / ACT OPEN No Settlement - ASTC Settlement - ACH

http://www.asx.com.au/about/operational/trading_calendar/asx/2009.htm

lol as if i would be wrong

 

[Timmy]

I'd imagine the volume on Monday will be quite low... in fact quite close to zero.

Agree, with Sydney on holiday the volume will be bugger all.

 

[nunthewiser]

i might have got my wires crossed with skc

i thought he was implying by zero volume that the markets were closed monday

i already pointed out that i think the vols would be low on monday

oh dear i need more sleep if this wasnt the case

as you were

 

[skc]

i might have got my wires crossed with skc

i thought he was implying by zero volume that the markets were closed monday

i already pointed out that i think the vols would be low on monday

oh dear i need more sleep if this wasnt the case

as you were

I was confused myself... I actually thought the market would be closed Monday. So you got my joke, nun.

I guess the volume won't be zero then. I will make sure of that

I don't really understand why the market is still open Monday. It is not even a business day when it comes to settlements. Traders deserve a long weekend!

 

[Gordon Gekko]

"The Bank, whose job it is to support low-income countries, has had to hand out so much cash in the wake of the financial crisis that its resources could run dry within 12 months. "



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-could-run-out-of-money-within-12-months.html

Hey maybe we could lend them the money? No recession or depression here, just over priced housing, sunshine and loly pops!

Best
G

 

[clayton4115]

talk about overpriced housing!

 

[Chris45]

That said I will let it run and hope for the best.

Joe, as was suggested elsewhere, this thread, free from the requirements to include detailed analysis, could be very useful in gauging market sentiment. Judging from the writing styles used, there seem to be many new young members joining the forum and I think they should be free to express their opinions. We can all learn from their views.

 

[nunthewiser]

i think this thread is a great idea as we can discuss what actually moves the markets ie , economy , various weighted stocks and other points to do with the XAO that are not deemed accetable for some posters in the other thread

like it or not but the XAO does not run on charts alone , pretty sure the general economy and banking and phone companies etc etc etc etc affect it on a day to day basis

at least here we can make a post of relevance to the xao without it being removed because we mentioned something to do with it

only my 2 cents , no disrespect intended to whoever has removed posts because they dont fit in with there ideas on what is classed as analysis on what moves the xao

i do respect and understand the rules on the other thread so now glad we got somewhere to post the things that DONT fit in that thread

 

[nunthewiser]

speaking of which

after hitting my previous pivot point i stated and bouncing off it and the strength of the comeback on the yanks friday night .i would be expecting a slightly green day on the XAO on monday .all be it on low volumes ........

i could also be wrong

will have a closer look on where I think its going next when the vols return on tuesday

now that should be classed as analysis in my book only its stated in words not lines on a chart .... im not very good with drawing charts on screen

 

[Chris45]

Re: XAO Analysis

This “XAO Analysis” thread is now 3yrs old and is 383 pages long, which makes searching for the occasional quality analytical posts rather tedious because they tend to get lost amongst the general chatter. Since there is now an expectation that this thread be reserved for serious technical analysis, it might become a lot quieter as all of the chatter moves to the Banter thread.

ASF now has many different analysis threads, eg “XAO Analysis”, “Elliott Wave and the XAO”, “ASX 200 Analysis”, “The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread”, etc. so it would be good if all serious analysis of whatever flavour could in future be posted in the one thread without the chatter and petty personal biases being allowed to intrude.

I don’t know if I’m being unrealistic but here’s a suggestion to try and make the forum a bit easier for everyone. Perhaps this thread could be cut after, say, post #7621 and a new sticky thread titled ASX Index Analysis commenced and reserved for the serious analysis of both the XAO and the XJO, with all reasonable analysis techniques, eg S&R, EW, MA, Gann etc, being allowed and respected and not ridiculed. Readers can then more easily compare the different analysis techniques and form their opinions which they can then post in the Banter thread, with a reference to the post number, if they wish.

There should be a requirement that all new posts contain meaningful charts with analysis tools shown plus explanations (as in the first “XAO Analysis” post) or other significant data, and all unnecessary chatter should be immediately deleted or moved to the Banter thread. Comments on posts should be discouraged, unless serious questions are being asked, and any arguments that develop about the pros and cons of the different techniques should be either deleted or transferred to debate threads. Trivial “me too” comments should be deleted and trolls should be aggressively silenced and/or banned.