XAO Banter Thread

[Joules MM1]

soah......good day to be hunting those cheapy etf's, huh

 

[systematic]

Who was in at the top?

Well, if you weren't in at the top - you'd have performed better. I was providing a worst-case.

 

[Smurf1976]

Playing with fully franked dives is good too. Take them and buy back in at lower levels rather than let the company do it for you.

It can also make the accounting simpler by avoiding lots of small purchases of the same stock all at different times and prices.

 

[notting]

Morgan Stanley's strategists find that Australia's historically "defensive" role in a Asia-wide correction is complicated by "a subdued earnings pulse and building domestic risks in consumer and housing". (Historically one may assume they got that wrong for about 200 years.......so far!)

"For much of 2017 we watched the market trade well above our base case index targets and embrace bull case multiples," they write. "The ASX 200 was out of sync with the earnings recovery seen in regional and global markets but participated in the global trend towards paying up for earnings."

But at 6000 points, the Australian market demanded better earnings growth to justify the multiples.

Morgan Stanley's ASX 200 target is 5800 points.

Amazone PE 225
Netflix PE 203

Now go find four of the worlds safest and best banks paying around 6% div per ann for ever, Morgan!

 

[greggles]

Here we go again. Big down day ahead of us on the ASX. I suspect there may be a little more pain today than on Tuesday for two reasons.

Firstly, I suspect that there will be a little more fear that last night's plunge on US markets might be the start of a larger correction or perhaps even a bear market.

Secondly, it's Friday. Everyone wants to sleep well on the weekend. I think that a lot of open positions will be closed today with people waiting to see what tonight and early next week brings.

Brace yourselves for another sea of red today.

 

[CanOz]

How to tell a bear market from a bull market : bear markets close lower on Friday as investors shed risk (fear) ahead of the weekend. Bulls markets close higher on Fridays as investors experience fomo.

This used to be statistically sound before the rise of the machines....let's see how Friday finishes.

 

[notting]

S & P sold off late Wednesday, which would have been another ETF repatriation hour!
It had been up all day. But last night was far more systemic and bearish. Everything just went down all day and finished on the bottom.
I went to bed (unusual, I know) after watching Twitter come of age thinking damn the fun is over, now they will get all excited over tech and on we go.
So was surprised this morning. So happy to see Amazon tank 4% I hate that stock soooooo much.
Did anyone notice the export numbers out of China yesterday? They usually overshoot consensus by a bucket load. However -
China's trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 20.34 billion in January 2018 from USD 50.21 billion in the same month a year earlier and way below market consensus of USD 54.1.

I should add that there has also been quite a strong correlation with stock markets and the oil prices of late.
the 10-year note yield touched 2.88 per cent on the day - was a key driver of the day's shakeout on American bourses.
Investors hopefully have finally stoped being in a state of denial about the Treasuries supply ramifications of a ballooning US federal budget deficit. If China really wants to fuc$ with the US now would be the time to ease up on treasury purchases!! This could be quite devastating for yield control.
US federal deficit could push through 5 per cent of GDP by 2019.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

As long as get dividend it's cool

 

[Joules MM1]

today looks a good buying day, $spx hit a strong ratio low, over hyped jibba jabba has mixed in the socmedia idiotsphere

 

[Joules MM1]

if in doubt seek a decent yield (index) etf for locals ......that's my new drum i'm banging

haha ......caveats ...and don't hurt yaself, k!

 

[greggles]

Reaction on the ASX has been fairly subdued this morning with the XAO down a relatively modest 77 points or 1.3%. The market action this afternoon should be interesting. I predict that we will see a late afternoon selloff in the last couple of hours. As tech/a mentioned, the odds of a further decline on the US market tonight are good and many will be looking to exit positions today with a view to re-entering after the dust has settled.

My guess is the XAO will finish the day around 2.5% down.

 

[Joules MM1]

hello shorters and gurus

 

[Modest]

ES higher please

 

[notting]

hello shorters and gurusView attachment 86224

Especially on a Friday, when the markets tend to reverse a bit of what it does during the week after the S&P finished like this the night before -



A good time to take money off the table and wait for a bit of consolidation at the very least, I reckon.
Ausi $ coming off, a further sign of risk aversion and reason for internationals to avoid ASX.
Around a Trillion Treasuries to be auctioned this year. How is that 10 year yeild gonna cope with that!

 

[Joules MM1]

seen better legs on a donkey

suits the sell side

 

[greggles]

My guess is the XAO will finish the day around 2.5% down.

Ooops! Bad call. I suppose the US markets were far more overbought than the ASX, so any large correction will probably hit the US harder. Either that or there are plenty of punters betting that the US markets are in for a rebound tonight. Will be an interesting evening.

 

[greggles]

US Market bounces back overnight with DJIA up 410 points. Should restore some confidence in the local market. XAO should see some good gains today.

 

[PZ99]

Futures point to a good start. Where it goes after that will probably depend on the Business survey due at 11:30

 

[Modest]

Looking for a drop on the ASX200 tonight, targeting for 5,740. I am positioned appropriately with a tight leash on this bad girl.

Let’s see if she pukes

 

[CanOz]

Looking for a drop on the ASX200 tonight, targeting for 5,740. I am positioned appropriately with a tight leash on this bad girl.

Let’s see if she pukes

I reckon if it takes out 5768 then 5710 is a good possibility...however, 5811 invalidates that and makes me think longs....but i won't be trading it.