XAO Banter Thread

[Wysiwyg]

In comparison to other markets our companies are being viewed as doing terrible and with no fiuture upgrade. Other markets (even severely in debt) hitting new highs. How bizarre.

 

[PinguPingu]

Yes, it seems nobody loves our ASX

I like saving these articles and seeing where the currency/asset/market in question is in the next year or so. If you want to be the ultimate contrarian, go overweight ASX!

http://www.afr.com/personal-finance...ressed-with-australian-shares-20170929-gyrizf


http://www.afr.com/markets/the-asx-is-the-most-hated-market-in-asia-20170927-gypkbm

 

[notting]

The US market is not being sold because they are all waiting to see if they can get a tax break on their profits!!
That's the difference.
Hmmm better watch out if tax reform happens!

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

all major markets moved higher again

even regional property is outperforming XAO

 

[notting]

all major markets moved higher again
even regional property is outperforming XAO

Haven't you noticed they follow like blind dogs.
Oh then of course, 'we're bring all that doe back to the good ol usa with a one time tax break.'
Can't imagine what that might do to internationals. Just prepen

 

[PinguPingu]

Another AFR article (I do like how it skims over dividends, which if reinvested means you would be well past the '07 peak)

http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/shares-have-gone-nowhere-for-10-years-20171004-gyu0fj

 

[lenny]

XJO holding onto support by it's finger nails.

Looking very weak indeed.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

good link PP,

in the meantime property for most has seen CAPITAL double in value and would still be the main driver of wealth for aussie families (and thats excluding any reinvestment of rent)

the issue is the next 5yrs, 10yrs, how is it going to get up into 6000-7000 range, could very well be another 10yrs of zip

 

[gartley]

If the banks are in a bear market (which they look to be in, albeit early stages) then the ASX200 is not going to fare to well in the years ahead. Looking not good here at all, and just about to breakdown from the 5 month stalling pattern which largely has been influenced by the US Indices continued Wall St crooked rise.
US stocks topping out now and will be an interesting next couple of months.

 

[History Repeats]

Might be similar article from the AFR above, worth the read none the less. From my experience Australian market definitely lack excitement in terms of new listing compare to US or China for example.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-australia-behind-in-land-of-shrinking-equity

 

[notting]

If the banks are in a bear market (which they look to be in, albeit early stages)

Pretty astounding given the lack of performance amidst the greatest property boom we have ever seen.
If it's forward looking then property might be in for a bit of a reality check.

 

[gartley]

Pretty astounding given the lack of performance amidst the greatest property boom we have ever seen.
If it's forward looking then property might be in for a bit of a reality check.

Actually it's been a credit boom))
Will be interesting years ahead indeed!

 

[notting]

Actually it's been a credit boom))
Will be interesting years ahead indeed!

It's been a what?

 

[satanoperca]

Please Notting, you of all people know better.

Show us a graph of private debt vs gpd.

For f---ks such, do you really think property has boomed on the back of productivity or rather increased indebtness?

 

[notting]

I took the implication that it was being related to housing, if this is not a housing boom then I've never seen one.
Any way here's your chart on GDP


Double top?

 

[Smurf1976]

N

Double top?

That was my thought looking at the chart before I saw your comment. Looks plausible.

I'm no perms-bear but I do think there's trouble ahead.

Debt can't really grow much more relative to GDP and incomes. At least it can't in a sensible manner without some huge risks and creative accounting.

Resource industry volume expansion is winding down leaving price as the only driver of any potential gains there.

US stock market in particular is extremely extended in terms of both valuation and duration of the current cycle.

Australian economy is heavily imbalanced and reliant on the housing boom and commodity prices. Value adding has been pretty much gutted.

Governments are in debt so not much ability to stimulate activity. Only exception might be at the local level - at least some councils are probably in good shape financially but the states and federal government sure aren't.

We've lost focus. Those old enough will recall the almost constant focus on being internationally competitive back in the 1990's. That term was in the mainstream news practically every day. Can't remember the last time I heard anyone who matters even mention it now though.

So I'm bearish in the medium term. That said, there's always the possibility that we're rescued again if commodity prices boom or China finds $ billions more to be moved out of the country ASAP.

 

[pixel]

For several months now, the All Ords chart has displayed trend channels in Price and MACD that run in opposite directions. Usually, an enduring divergence like this sees the price chart follow the direction of MACD, and only a strong MACD breakout convinces me otherwise.
I noticed similar divergence across global indices in late 2007.

Seems to get close to "It's time" again. And as you may have noticed, I'm mainly playing the speccie end of the spectrum for "quickies". For now, I'm largely in cash.

 

[notting]

People just can't bear to be in cash when there are no returns.
It's been like this for some time and especially the last 2.5 years when it became apparent that this is an very strong market trend.
When no one wants to be in cash. Cash is the place to be

 

[Wysiwyg]

See there is a concerted effort to turn the market down from 5800 yet again. Are big stacks gaming the XAO?

 

[peter2]

Surely you're getting excited that the XAO is close to breaking-out of this channel.
Yes, of course but don't call me Shirley.
The XAO is about to be Flying High.