XAO Banter Thread

[CanOz]

I think if vote to leave we will get 3-4% drop, uncalled for but the markets are still very fragile where anything negative hits the markets at the moment

Ftse, dax etc probably 6-8% fall

Big call, 6-8%...when was the last time we saw that?

 

[skc]

Big call, 6-8%...when was the last time we saw that?

The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question.

FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week.

UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.

 

[CanOz]

The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question.

FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week.

UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.

Good points, plus there is a good chance this will be a gap open as the vote should be counted by the EU open. So any hope of any kind of circuit breaker (not that i know of any in Europe) kicking in might be too late.

 

[McLovin]

The market has pretty much assumed a remain win. An exit outcome would most definitely be unexpected and I don't think a fall of 6-8% is out of the question.

FTSE down 6% is only -360pts... which is similar to where it was last week.

UK's overall economic impact on the rest of the world is not massive... but if UK can leave, it's not as hard to imagine Greece or Italy having a referendum down the track. A destablised EU is a big deal and the market will be rocked by that.

A fall of that magnitude is definitely a possibility. It's more what it says about the state of the world than Britain or the EU in particular. Britain leaving the EU, Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee with his bellicose populism that seems to belong in 1930s Europe, China trying to flex its muscle in the western Pacific, Russia on the rise and the ongoing issue with terrorism. The high water mark for global stability was 1999, imo. Anytime markets are reminded of the world we now live in they sell off.

I don't really think the chances of Eurozone countries leaving is realistic. They are much more tightly bound because of the currency than the UK which is really just part of a free trade bloc. Getting people to inflict on themselves the sort of economic hardship that leaving the euro would is a much, much harder task than selling a no more gypsies referendum.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Britain leaving the EU, Donald Trump the presumptive Republican nominee with his bellicose populism that seems to belong in 1930s Europe, China trying to flex its muscle in the western Pacific, Russia on the rise and the ongoing issue with terrorism.

And the continued threat of living next door to dictator kim jong un launching missiles. Seems to be bitchin' for a fight.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

the dax, cac and ftse went up around 3-4% the other day so with the hysteria of Britexit could easily dip it 6-8%

on the other hand if they remain, then it could provide some stability and with the reduced prospect of US Fed not raising IR's the XAO may move forward to 5800

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The tension is rising worldwide. So ****ing unecessary.

Multiculturalism is a nice idea which simply doesn't work on any level. Open borders policy is a well-intentioned idea which doesn't work too well either. The degree of upheaval, unrest, division and angst in Europe, US and Aus is higher than I've ever seen.

 

[CanOz]

The tension is rising worldwide. So ****ing unecessary.

Multiculturalism is a nice idea which simply doesn't work on any level. Open borders policy is a well-intentioned idea which doesn't work too well either. The degree of upheaval, unrest, division and angst in Europe, US and Aus is higher than I've ever seen.

Nah, it works fine until religion is dragged into everything...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Nah, it works fine until religion is dragged into everything...

Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth. Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster. It's not the skin colour as such. Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth. Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster. It's not the skin colour as such. Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.

We're past a tipping point where anyone who is non-white knows they have the advantage of being a 'disenfranchised minority', and that with numbers, they can topple the whole system. [talking about African, ME, South American and Eastern Euro background mainly]. Rio olympics will show just how easy this is, unfortunately. If I was an athlete I wouldn't even consider going. It will be a gangster's paradise.

 

[McLovin]

Religion sure, and the unequal distribution of wealth. Some people have the means to aquire wealth, and others do not, but mixing such populations is courting disaster. It's not the skin colour as such. Gangs of white Eastern European pickpockets are like rats in London.

I lived in London for 7 years, I wasn't pickpocketed once, and I don't know anyone who was. How long did you live there for?

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I lived in London for 7 years, I wasn't pickpocketed once, and I don't know anyone who was. How long did you live there for?

They have an anti-pickpocketing (Dip Squad) unit full time on the streets. Most of the offenders are Romanian and Bulgarian. They target tourists in and around shops/parks/the undergreound.

https://www.corporatetravelsafety.com/safety-tips/secrets-of-former-pickpocket/

I've been targeted once myself by a gang of 3, but it was in France at an ATM. Luckily they were smaller than me and I could strong arm them a bit and move on.

Getting a bit off topic though - my point was that open border policies invite people from countries where cultural norms are very different. Resentment, lack of opportunity, lack of trust and divisions become more entrenched, not less.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

here we go, think we at best get a flat day or down quite a bit if if britexit wins

 

[rb250660]

How was that volatility. Fantastic!

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

on rolls the aussie bear market

not sure if the remain campaign can make it back now

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

The people of Britain have probably taken the 7yr APRA regulated super fund return to 2.7% down from 2.9%, cash over 7yrs better

XAO at 2006 levels

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

most regional markets have recovered well from Brexit, ASX still struggling

until the banks get out of the bear market not much that will get the XAO up over 5500

 

[MrBurns]

most regional markets have recovered well from Brexit, ASX still struggling

until the banks get out of the bear market not much that will get the XAO up over 5500

Forget Brexit, the election result will do more damage to us than that....

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Not much joy for long term shareholders again

I reckon we looking at minimum 5yrs for XAO to even get close to 6000 again and for people to have confidence to buy shares

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Could be in for some downwards action again.