XAO Banter Thread

[Aussiest]

If this turns into a groundswell like the prime mortgages did we are in for a quick downward run.

Let's hope for a quick run down as opposed to a slow grind. I will be watching for 4000, and then 3600, as 4500 is clearly going to be breached.

S'cuse the shabby chart.. I think it would take something drastic for us to reach double bottom, such as another financial institution going bankrupt, or... something new and unexpected? This bearishness seems to be more insidious this time due to false optimism.

 

[Dark1975]

Well the dow is currently down -100 points under the magic 10,000 mark,well if the dow finshes today's trade down,it will be interesting on monday on the xao.I'd say we might be testing 4487 resistance line on the xao,and if it breaks we might see the next leg down to 4000 on the xao/or for the EW's theory forming a larger picture of wc 2.
In saying that,all depends on a lot of factors also,one being the dow,Well monday will be interesting either way,Either a great buying opp/or a larger picture forming for the next leg down,I'm betting the next leg down.

 

[nulla nulla]

It appears that all the key markets, Euyopean, Asian and American are now focused on the negative aspects of the Euro members overeaching themselves to join the union (and their populace being unwilling to accept curbs in spending and reduction of debt).
This appears to be seen as another "bubble" ready to pop with potential global finanial ramifications in the finance industry. This fear is not going to abate overnight, there is no oil rich brother to bail them out. I now expect to see a persistant sell down on the XAO particularly in the banking and investment sectors. This time I suspect the bargain hunters will be more cautious on their re-entry points.

 

[satanoperca]

To much doom and gloom for me to soon, it will arrive but I suspect a little bit later in the year.
The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first.

I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.

The US is just starting to wake up to the reality that they are drowning in debt and the only course of action to save the empire is to start deleveraging. This reality has not yet sunk in and proved by the reelection of Benake. It will take some time for them to accept that debt is the problem and not the answer, when they realise this, panic and fear will return in full force.

Also, the XAO closed yesterday on %38.2 retracement from the March lows after intitally gaining back %50 and dropping back to the Fib level.

Cheers

 

[nulla nulla]

To much doom and gloom for me to soon, it will arrive but I suspect a little bit later in the year.
The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first.

I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.

The US is just starting to wake up to the reality that they are drowning in debt and the only course of action to save the empire is to start deleveraging. This reality has not yet sunk in and proved by the reelection of Benake. It will take some time for them to accept that debt is the problem and not the answer, when they realise this, panic and fear will return in full force.

Cheers

I think the U.S. realises that debt is the problem but they need to go further into debt to create the stimulus to create the income to reduce the debt. We see the market going sideways. also. I suspect a further retrace between
now and the end of February followed by a bounce in March - April before another slump in May - June. I will be pleasantly surprised if the xao bounces as high as 4900 but i suspect it would peak arround 4800. I have no idea on the lows. They will be determined by the extent of panic, the tightening of fiscal policy in China impacting on our resource stocks and the impending implosion of the European economy.

 

[satanoperca]

I think the U.S. realises that debt is the problem but they need to go further into debt to create the stimulus to create the income to reduce the debt.

This is the reason for the problem in the first place. Debt does not create real jobs, it just buys time. When the US and the world finally wake up to this reality and the fact that their standard of living must change, watch out down below.

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

The two gap down days 21 & 22 of Jan still need to be filled. The second gap down being significantly larger than the first.

I see a rally in the next week or so to come up and fill these gaps 4900, maybe the well expected March rally before heading back down to the depths of 4200.

You know satanoperca that just about every day is a gap day, only you will never see it looking at the data that the ASX provide.

Those that trade index gaps don't look at XJO/XAO data from the ASX.

 

[satanoperca]

Hi T/H,

What data do they look at then?

My source of data is from premiumdata which I assume originates from the ASX but could be wrong.

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

Hi T/H,

What data do they look at then?

My source of data is from premiumdata which I assume originates from the ASX but could be wrong.

Cheers

The problem with the ASX indexes are two fold. Firstly because of the staggered open from 10:00 to 10:08 the opening tick of XJO/XAO is not the true value of "opening price" of all index constituents, this is unique to ASX. In fact the data from 10:00 to 10:08 is really twilight zone stuff.

Secondly and even more strange is sometimes the first tick that the ASX provides for indexes is magically exactly the same as yesterday close, to two decimal points?? Now that would only be possible if all 400 or so stocks, particularly the big caps, that open in the first round at 10:00 am (A to B) traded at their closing price. It doesn't happen! Where this comes from is that the opening auction is at 10:00 am +/- 15 secs BUT if its say 10:00: +12 seconds the ASX will still take the index quote from 10:00. even if nothing has traded yet!!!! That's why half the time yesterdays first tick for indexes is yesterdays close!! It Farking stupid!!

To get around this there are charts out there called something like ASX Index GAP Charts which take their opening price from the first of every constituents trade, although thats not perfect either because by the time the last opens the first has already move stacks.

The simplest way to get an idea of the gap is to just look at the SPI chart dailycash session. Here is one. Notice that there are gaps all over the place. This is what index traders use.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Whoops this line should read like,

That's why half the time todays first tick for indexes is yesterdays close!! It Farking stupid!!

 

[satanoperca]

Thanks for the reply T/H, much appreciated but I'm still a little confused.

The two gap down days I mentioned in the XAO chart should not be considered in looking at the future direction of the index because of some twilight zone stuff that happens at the time of open making the data meaningless?

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

Thanks for the reply T/H, much appreciated but I'm still a little confused.

The two gap down days I mentioned in the XAO chart should not be considered in looking at the future direction of the index because of some twilight zone stuff that happens at the time of open making the data meaningless?

Cheers

My point is why make those gaps anymore meaningful that all the other gaps? There is literally one every day though they rarely show up on an ASX XAO chart. Are you going to give more significance to the ones that you see because of a dodgy methodology?

 

[satanoperca]

The answer to your question is yes, will I take trades based solely on those gaps, no, the overall prevailing market conditions and other information will determine that. To discount them because there is gaps I cannot see in the charts seems strange. Will you prove to be right or wrong, only time will tell.

So you believe that no credence should be given to them?

I'm sorry I have to ask again, but some of your remarks/comments seem quite cryptic to me as I am of a simple mind.

Cheers

 

[Trembling Hand]

Never mind, carry on.

 

[satanoperca]

So you will provide no answer, full of wisdom but no answer.

Thanks

 

[Trembling Hand]

Are you going to give more significance to the ones that you see because of a dodgy methodology?

The answer to your question is yes,

No more needs to be said. You want to make them significant, although I don't think they are, thats fine we all trade own own biases.

 

[Naked shorts]

Debt does not create real jobs, it just buys time. When the US and the world finally wake up to this reality and the fact that their standard of living must change, watch out down below.

Providing liquidity by going into debt boosts investor confidence which in turn causes them to put money into speculative assets again (like companies), which in turn creates jobs.
How many people are currently saying the world is about to end compared to 1 year ago?

 

[satanoperca]

Mate, please read my reply. At no point did I say they were significant, just something that should be taken into consideration. But read into it what you will.

You finally answered the question, wasn't hard was it. You don't place much credence on them, that is all I was asking. No cryptic intentions or hidden messages at all.

Ah, you use the word bias, very interesting, the reason why I started a thread on the subject. The thread was started due to two individuals (who seem very capable traders with lots of knowledge) who seem to have extreme bias towards their own opinions and often clouded that there is more than one way to skin a cat. One of them replied immediately to the thread mentioning the other. Quite funny all in all.

Cheers and thank-you.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Mate, please read my reply. At no point did I say they were significant, just something that should be taken into consideration. But read into it what you will.

You finally answered the question, wasn't hard was it. You don't place much credence on them, that is all I was asking. No cryptic intentions or hidden messages at all.

Ah, you use the word bias, very interesting, the reason why I started a thread on the subject. The thread was started due to two individuals (who seem very capable traders with lots of knowledge) who seem to have extreme bias towards their own opinions and often clouded that there is more than one way to skin a cat. One of them replied immediately to the thread mentioning the other. Quite funny all in all.

Cheers and thank-you.

I do give "credence" to gaps I trade them day in day out. Just no "credence" to the ones shown on an XAO/XJO chart. That is my point they are everywhere but you cannot find them on a XAO/XJO chart
Understand?

EDIT: I also am starting to understand that spending 20 min trying to explain something in an factual way, such as my attempted at post# 209 is a farking waste of time. And more than likely going to end up looking like a tosser. And end up with being labeled one, as per you last remark.

 

[Timmy]

EDIT: I also am starting to understand that spending 20 min trying to explain something in an factual way, such as my attempted at post# 209 is a farking waste of time. And more than likely going to end up looking like a tosser. And end up with being labeled one, as per you last remark.

I reckon there is a sizeable majority on ASF that, while they may not always fully understand everything you spend time explaining, very much appreciate getting quality information and views direct from a successful trader.