XAO Analysis Prediction

[tech/a]

A technical view.4300 to 4250 at the end of this correction--when IE timeframe I reckon about a month.

 

[RichKid]

Great chart and fair enough for a prediction, logical chartwise. Nice to see support corresponding to previous highs and 50% retrace. If it keeps going through the previous high and falls through around 4175 then we'll know we're in big trouble.

 

[Kauri]

tech/a...thats the way I saw it as well, have closed most of my long positions during the day ( had stops tightened when xao dropped below med term line in late August and failed to lift back above it on the last couple of days last month),waiting now for the inevitable bounce before considering shorts.
My trading time frame is mostly measured in days, sometimes weeks, therefore I use tighter stops than longer term holders.

 

[RichKid]

Our resident soothsayers are looking good so far, no bounce yet. That previous high set early in the year is looking more and more attractive by the day as support.

 

[tech/a]

Yeh Rich.

If you want any more predictions it will cost you a Grand!!.

Hahahha

 

[RichKid]

Yeh Rich.

If you want any more predictions it will cost you a Grand!!.

Hahahha

Hehehehe, might cost some people more than that if there's real money behind the many charts and opinions which litter stock forums!

 

[michael_selway]

A technical view.4300 to 4250 at the end of this correction--when IE timeframe I reckon about a month.

Hi thx for the chart

so its saying that if it repeats the Mar-May fall, then it should stop at 4250-4300 then rebound? and what about the chances? it drops below 4200? does it say that? sorry im new but interested

thanks!

 

[mit]

Hi thx for the chart

so its saying that if it repeats the Mar-May fall, then it should stop at 4250-4300 then rebound? and what about the chances? it drops below 4200? does it say that? sorry im new but interested

thanks!

The support is a projection of the high prior to the fall, although it is true that the size of the drop is almost identical. Another support can be projected from the Mar-May low. If the market breaks through this support then the uptrend that started in March '03 will have broken. If we then have a lower high and a lower low then a down trend will have been established.

From support and resistance analysis alone it is more probable that the market will reverse at or before it reaches the support. However, the increase in volatility (especially the size of the downdays) could change the probabilities.

MIT

 

[Milk Man]

Ive got support/resistance levels at 4317 then 4266 then a major at 4180. After that the next is 3880. If I was to trade it (which im not: please see below disclaimer ) i'd short just below 4317 and pyramid in after each is broken. Sells would be bounce close to support level (5 ticks?) and stops 5 ticks below resistance. Objective is 3900 with sell triggered at 3910.

Not much thought gone into it, not going to do discretionary yet (if ever) just want to see what you think.

Is that worth $1000 guys? Id have to say it was extremely easy!

 

[Milk Man]

Ive got support/resistance levels at 4317 then 4266 then a major at 4180. After that the next is 3880. If I was to trade it (which im not: please see below disclaimer ) i'd short just below 4317 and pyramid in after each is broken. Sells would be bounce close to support level (5 ticks?) and stops 5 ticks below resistance. Objective is 3900 with sell triggered at 3910.

Not much thought gone into it, not going to do discretionary yet (if ever) just want to see what you think.

Is that worth $1000 guys? Id have to say it was extremely easy!

Didnt explain buy signals clear enough. I would have been stopped out though. Shorts will be 5 ticks below support/resistance and stops 5 ticks above s/r (for shorts). Methinks intraday charts might be handy....

 

[GreatPig]

A nice push up through resistance today.

Interesting to see if it can keep its head above water.

Cheers,
GP

 

[RichKid]

Nice strong run, now if only we could have a small pullback on low volume to the old highs we can all go long with glee!!

 

[GreatPig]

Time to update this thread.

It seems to me to be now running in an expanding channel (between the thick blue lines), with the corrections getting larger and steeper each time.

Today it touched the bottom of the channel and then pulled back a little. Maybe we'll now see some consolidation at this level with it then starting to move back up again.

If it drops through this trend line, the next support level is down around 4900 by my reckoning, or maybe even 4800. The longer-term trend line is down around 4650 - a long way from here!

Cheers,
GP

 

[professor_frink]

looks like that trendline is going to be in a bit of danger today GP! Should be an interesting day.

 

[mit]

looks like that trendline is going to be in a bit of danger today GP! Should be an interesting day.

I don't want any more interesting days.

MIT

 

[Sean K]

I doubt we'll have more than a 10% retractment from the high which will take us to around 4900.

At this level the forward PE should be around the long term average or just under, and a good launching pad for the next push to 5500 by the end of the year as corporate profits once again come in at double digit numbers.

 

[ctp6360]

Today's drop isn't as bad as I thought it would be first off, I was expecting a big gap down and then a slow, steady increase for the rest of the day, but things arn't looking nearly as bad as I thought they'd be. Which is a relief I must say.

 

[ctp6360]

I might even get some green on my screen today!
Maybe these are famous last words, ha ha ha!

 

[Sean K]

It seems a lot of people are just waiting on the sidelines to see what happens.

Perhaps all the bears have sold out?

Perhaps we are in the eye of the storm?

 

[GreatPig]

That lower orange/yellow line around 4850 on my chart is the trend line under the April and October corrections last year. This could also provide a base for further falls through the blue trend line.

Optimism must prevail...

GP