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WOW - Woolworths Group

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tech/a said:
All as plan from my December post.
Click to expand...

Tech/a

So from a technical view as we stand at the moment where do you see a possible bottom at present?
I am thinking that with the negative sentiment on the stock it may keep going through the $26 level as well?
 
Triathlete said:
Tech/a

So from a technical view as we stand at the moment where do you see a possible bottom at present?
I am thinking that with the negative sentiment on the stock it may keep going through the $26 level as well?
Click to expand...

Not a bottom but target
Between $23-$24
 
tech/a said:
Not a bottom but target
Between $23-$24
Click to expand...

Thanks Tech/a

A target price is a better word I do not see a bottom for WOW yet either.

what do they say " never try and catch a falling knife"

I think this may be WOW at the moment.
 
Woolworths share holders would be pleased to see yesterdays price jump of $0.73 to close at $28.50. Seems some of the larger shareholders are pushing for former CEO Roger Corbett to be appointed to the board of directors, possibly as Chairman, as a replacement for the retiring Bob Emery (due to retire in November).
 
I have been listening to the investor day webcast, and I think Woolworths is making some pretty good stratergy moves, you can already see some of the progress at their stores.
 

You know that quote isn't really Roosevelt's? It's attributed to him but he said he quoted it from a West African saying.

Oh yea WOW... I couldn't detect any drastic problem with it. Slightly less sales, slower inventory turnover... but these are to be expected in business now and then. The price was ahead of itself since, from memory, 2012... but its current price is fairly reasonable now - not cheap but fair.
 
luutzu said:
You know that quote isn't really Roosevelt's? It's attributed to him but he said he quoted it from a West African saying.....
Click to expand...

While this is probably not the correct thread to follow a question as to the accuracy of the origin of my "signature" quote, here is a link to Wikipedia casting doubt on the alleged West African proverb.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Stick_ideology

Mean while, on topic, I can't say that I am happy with the current share price of Woolworths $27.10. It would appear that a lot of investors have lost faith with the Woolworths directors and the CEO Mr O'Brien. The Masters investment is increasingly being seen as a (costly) mistake.

The failure of the board and management to concede it was a mistake is dragging the share price down. Seems like it might be time to cut some directors and management loose and inspire some confidence again.

If they could admit that "Dick Smith Electronics" was a mistake why are they unable to see the error of their foray into Masters? They should stick to Groceries, Hotels and Alcohol.
 
Triathlete said:
I am feeling more bearish on WOW at the moment and if the previous $29.11 is broken ( today price $29.29) then I feel that an initial target price of between $27.82 and $26.90 which is (261.8 % wave B) by my calculation is likely.
Click to expand...

Looks like my previous post 593 on the 2/3/2015 is proving correct and no end in sight yet for WOW!!!

My worst case had been $26...... but Tech/A target of $23 -$24 may yet prove correct only time will tell...some interesting times ahead for WOW shareholders.
 

It turns out that selling Dick Smith was as much a mistake as having it...

I think the problem with Woolies is not limited to Masters. The problem is that, back in the days there was a believe that Australia is such a small country with unique population spread and density characterisitcs, that duopoly is the perfect status quo for many industries. Woolies has the highest margin of all supermarkets in the developed world (sorry I can't remember the source). But has the world evolved to make globalised competition more real now? ALDI has destroyed all lazy incumbents across its expansion paths. Is Woolies becoming the Australian Tesco? That's what weighing on the share price imo.
 

Ahh...


Ehh???

 

Follow the reference from wiki and the guy basically said he doubt it's West African, couldn't find it and Roosevelt probably made it up but wanted to sound well read. Who knows but I'd take the author's claim that it's not his over some dude's opinion that it must be his.

----

With WOW. I don't see anything drastically wrong with it.

It might've paid its supplier a couple days earlier than usual, but its cash cycle are still good.
Inventory is slightly higher than couple years ago but doesn't seem like sales is deteriorating... could just be due to the Masters inventory.

ROE looks 1 to 2 percent lower, so you could project that to a steeper decline but it's still in the high 30s, that and given its dominant position and current problem...

ROC is good and steady or growing... profit margin is steady as it has for a while, though not as nice as it used to be back in 2005. Operating cash is good; took on some borrowing last year but who wouldn't if they can;

The thing that might disappoint would be sales growth - growing at 3.86 instead of 6.45% the year before... but that's to be expected, and it's within its range since GFC.

If you look at WalMart at the time Buffett bought a truck load of it, he might have overpaid for WMT in relation to WOW right now. Just slightly


I haven't bought WOW yet but with all the bad news and sentiment... that and the good chance that I might be missing something when I am not ready yet to dig deeper to verify... so let's wait and see.

Who knows, Corbett might return bringing the Waltons with him.
 
Hi all,
Just updated my own analysis on WOW chart.
I have my summary on the chart
All comments and feedback welcomed.

Cheers
Triathlete

 
As the time passes, the pattern start to emerge. I have quite a good understanding now what could develop from all those overlapping waves from 2014 Top.

To confirm my suspicions, short term WOW must collapse fast after passing the Point of Recognition area. If this short term scenario realizes, I will update the long term EW count and the most likely bottom targets, which could take place in the next few months and be close or slightly below GFC lows.


There is a massive divergence in price momentum even in a weekly time frames(not shown),suggesting that a setup for reversal is there already, so this wave down should be the last and end the entire decline from 2014 Top of $39.



 
Mr Grant O'Brien negotiates his resignation. The initial market re-action was a share price jump of almost 2%, however the share price faded during afternoon trading to finish the day down $0.04c. All Woolworths needs to do now is replace the board of directors.

How pathetic are they in that, given how bad things have been going under O'Brien, they didn't have a succession plan in place?

Seems they need to bring someone like the former CEO Mr Corbet onboard the board of directors to get the ship back on course.
 

Kauri said:
Looks to me that WOW may just be finding a bottom.. will need a bit of confirming action yet but it goes from my watch portfolio to my possibles one.. then if it shows signs of changing trend it's into the probables..
Click to expand...

I think it's time to BUY, pls refer to the latest news on the link below:

Merrill Lynch tips Woolworths shares to soar after shake-up

http://www.smh.com.au/business/merr...-shares-to-soar-after-shakeup-20150618-ghqv6m
 
Too early to tell when darling fall from grace they quick to upgrade but history usually tell a different story

The time to buy is when a few more down grade comes along, more write off and the market lose hope -

By that time there are more dynamic at play and wow may not be a good investment at that time but
We only know when we get there
 
This is in an interesting category for me, because I bought WOW a few years ago for my mother's don't touch, long term portfolio (aiming for better return than bank deposit over the long term). Do I put a stop loss in at break-even price? Probably will. But then, that is probably the moment the price will turn. The philosophy is don't touch but every swan sings its song.
 


Hindsight is a wonderful thing.....!

In my opinion...
WOW is a good example of why investors need to take a more active role in managing there portfolios rather than the buy and hold long term strategy.

Stocks move down as well....many who understood that WOW was in a downtrend would have got out a lot earlier and have now been waiting until it finds a major support level to get back in and have more stock than they previously owned for the money and may present good long term buying...

I mentioned in a NOV 14 post that
due to WOW entering an ABC correction phase that $26 was a worst case scenario but
who knows if that is going to be the end of the downtrend. Time will tell...some are now saying $23-$24 but is that the end????

I remember in the early 90's that the same thing occurred at Westpac and took quite a number of years to recover the same thing looks like happening at WOW.

I guess we will all have to see how this is going to play out....
 
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