Triathlete
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At which point I would rate it a "screaming buy and hold".
Are you getting ready Nulla Nulla???
WOW - Woolworths Group
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Are you getting ready Nulla Nulla???
The thing is though, (disclaimer, I hold a very small amount), buy and holders of WOW are not really seeing it as in a downtrend because they are looking at the total return.
Taking your advice from the unadjusted chart means you aren't seeing the real picture.
What you think is happening:
What has actually happened:
Triathlete
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I do not know about you sinner, but when I buy stocks I am looking for capital growth and dividends are the icing on the cake...
I certainly do not like to see capital being eroded especially if you were smart enough to ride the previous trend to the $39 level.
Long term holders of WOW.... to still have been holding it just for dividend while your capital is going down is not the best way to either manage your portfolio or get the best returns.
In my opinion if you did ride the last trend to $39 even a 15% stop loss would have got you out at $33 (a company such as WOW has obviously got problems falling this far) it would have saved some of your returns of the previous years and having the knowledge that WOW was showing signs that further falls was likely as I had
mentioned back in November 14.
Those investors would have protected some of there capital and now if they like WOW could get it for a cheaper price almost $7 from $33.we are almost at $26 which I had on a previous post.
I also understand that most people do not have the skill level and rely on brokers reports etc,etc.
I will tell you what happens these reports tell people to hold WOW for the long term so that we do not see a stampede to the exit doors which helps hold the price up long enough for the Fund managers and professional investors and traders
to start off loading there holdings at these higher prices knowing full well the price is on the way down but they do not want to scare the markets as they have millions invested so it takes them months to get rid of there holdings at the higher prices and the poor retail investor with no knowledge or experience see his capital going down...but that ok because I am still getting my dividend!!!!! more financial _rap that people are fed
and then when everything settles months or years down the track they get back in when the sentiment has changed and WOW has sorted themselves out we start moving in an uptrend again.
Just because someone may have picked up WOW at $10 years ago and saying I am still in front today is not the way to manage money imo. when we are seeing obvious problems with WOW and capital being eroded,we want capital to grow going forward that's not going to happen any time soon from from I can see....
When things don't go right bring in the consultants and pay them handsome price, what are we paying management for? I have little faith for upper management when this happen.
I don't hold or short just watching and learn
http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/woolworths-mckinsey-costs-top-45-million-20150618-ghribk
I don't hold or short just watching and learn
http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/woolworths-mckinsey-costs-top-45-million-20150618-ghribk
I am tracking the Expanding Diagonal Pattern which at this stage appears the most likely scenario for WOW.
All motive waves within are 5-3-5 with the last C wave in Progress, which must also be a "five". Ideally Prices would reach the lower trend line somewhere in $20-23 area depending on the time, but this is not a mandatory development for the Diagonal to be considered as completed. A massive divergence in most time frames just confirms that the decline is nearing an end.
The question is-can it be completed now? The answer is yes. Main requirement for the market is to sport five waves down from the Wave B top (~$30). The Ending Diagonal as wave C is also considered as "five" and can point that the bottom is in or very close. Rising in explosive manner above $30 would confirm the count, but note that this small ED could also be just a FIRST wave of wave C-in this case it will fall short of $30 area an collapse much lower. The other alternate bearish scenario is presented a few days earlier, which is still not denied.
But overall, compared to early 2014, situation is bullish-WOW fundamentals started to catch up with market mood which is reflected in the decline. Media also started to catch up presenting articles like this one explaining why average Joe turned it's back on Woolies http://www.smh.com.au/business/reta...and-aldi-over-woolworths-20150617-ghq1zg.html , when in reality, they turned their backs long time ago when the price was hovering around $39.
The more it goes down, the more bullish it gets. Basicaly for long term holders it's a Buy (and accumulate) at this stage, but I personally will wait for a more clearer picture as my trading horizon is usually less than a year, targeting just One Impulsive Advance.
All motive waves within are 5-3-5 with the last C wave in Progress, which must also be a "five". Ideally Prices would reach the lower trend line somewhere in $20-23 area depending on the time, but this is not a mandatory development for the Diagonal to be considered as completed. A massive divergence in most time frames just confirms that the decline is nearing an end.
The question is-can it be completed now? The answer is yes. Main requirement for the market is to sport five waves down from the Wave B top (~$30). The Ending Diagonal as wave C is also considered as "five" and can point that the bottom is in or very close. Rising in explosive manner above $30 would confirm the count, but note that this small ED could also be just a FIRST wave of wave C-in this case it will fall short of $30 area an collapse much lower. The other alternate bearish scenario is presented a few days earlier, which is still not denied.
But overall, compared to early 2014, situation is bullish-WOW fundamentals started to catch up with market mood which is reflected in the decline. Media also started to catch up presenting articles like this one explaining why average Joe turned it's back on Woolies http://www.smh.com.au/business/reta...and-aldi-over-woolworths-20150617-ghq1zg.html , when in reality, they turned their backs long time ago when the price was hovering around $39.
The more it goes down, the more bullish it gets. Basicaly for long term holders it's a Buy (and accumulate) at this stage, but I personally will wait for a more clearer picture as my trading horizon is usually less than a year, targeting just One Impulsive Advance.
Triathlete
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I do not know about you sinner, but when I buy stocks I am looking for capital growth and dividends are the icing on the cake...
I certainly do not like to see capital being eroded especially if you were smart enough to ride the previous trend to the $39 level.
Long term holders of WOW.... to still have been holding it just for dividend while your capital is going down is not the best way to either manage your portfolio or get the best returns.
In my opinion if you did ride the last trend to $39 even a 15% stop loss would have got you out at $33 (a company such as WOW has obviously got problems falling this far) it would have saved some of your returns of the previous years and having the knowledge that WOW was showing signs that further falls was likely as I had
mentioned back in November 14.
Those investors would have protected some of there capital and now if they like WOW could get it for a cheaper price almost $7 from $33.we are almost at $26 which I had on a previous post.
I also understand that most people do not have the skill level and rely on brokers reports etc,etc.
I will tell you what happens these reports tell people to hold WOW for the long term so that we do not see a stampede to the exit doors which helps hold the price up long enough for the Fund managers and professional investors and traders
to start off loading there holdings at these higher prices knowing full well the price is on the way down but they do not want to scare the markets as they have millions invested so it takes them months to get rid of there holdings at the higher prices and the poor retail investor with no knowledge or experience see his capital going down...but that ok because I am still getting my dividend!!!!! more financial _rap that people are fed
and then when everything settles months or years down the track they get back in when the sentiment has changed and WOW has sorted themselves out we start moving in an uptrend again.
Just because someone may have picked up WOW at $10 years ago and saying I am still in front today is not the way to manage money imo. when we are seeing obvious problems with WOW and capital being eroded,we want capital to grow going forward that's not going to happen any time soon from from I can see....
I thought I would add this to my comments above from a professional trader that I had read and maybe if there are some people from the industry can verify a statement like this below...
Your job as a trader is to predict the future, thus predicting what will be in the newspaper 6-12 months time.
Professional traders buy or sell assets now, so that in 6-12 months time when the news becomes mainstream and the story is over, they can use the liquidity of the traders that are "late to the trade" ( retail traders) to get out.
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That's a lot of words and charts to say you are staying on the sideline and consider buy when it drops more =)
To me WOW is just a case of the market pricing in its threats from Aldi and the like and it can no longer maintain the margin it used to have. Would things really be any different after replacing their CEO, CFO etc?
Those words are just a simple analysis of what could happen to the price of WOW.
Analysis and trading are two different things, as first involves analytical thinking of what could happen, and the other is a batle with your own beast inside your brain that sees what is happening..
Connecting those two is a hard job, that requires a lot of training/practice/experience(with real money in real markets).
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What's really happening is what the charts are indicating.
When they start to indicate a turn, you can turn the story in your head back on and ride your own bias to bullion.
It's going in on your story before the tide has turned that screws you up.
When they start to indicate a turn, you can turn the story in your head back on and ride your own bias to bullion.
It's going in on your story before the tide has turned that screws you up.
Triathlete
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So what you are really saying is let the market / chart tell you where it is going first (wait for confirmation do not speculate) do not get into the trade too early,
it does not matter if you miss the first 5% -10% of a move as long as you pick up the next 80%???
At least now they are not indicating a turn-impulsive advance failed to develop from the last bottom. End of story.
galumay
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I doubt that is what notting is saying, it implies that the chart of what has happened already could somehow tell you what is going to happen in the future! We would all be millionaires if past performance was an indicator of the future.
Past performance in financial markets indicates the path traveled. If you understand the method upon wich that path was developing, you could anticipate how it will develop from any given point. So yes-past performance indicates future. But this has nothing to do with becoming a millionaire, because seeing the path and walking it are two different things.
galumay
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I didnt realise fortune telling was so easy! BTW, have a deep think about what your statement means, logically - "So yes-past performance indicates future."
Triathlete
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All I can say Galumay is back on the 19/11/2014 I had made this comment.
"If price does not hold at $31 or $29 then it is coming back all the way down to $26!!!:eek7:"
What is price today $26.85 and has been as low as $26.25 still heading down at the moment...
If that is fortune telling than yes it is easy for me since my skill level is such that I am able to do it.
Charts can give you all the information you need to put the probability of having successful trades over the short, medium or longer time frames if you have the skill to interpret them.
I also remember you made a purchase SGN at 91c back on the 20/12/2014 and I also commented on your purchase at the time with the below comment.
Keep an eye on SGN Galumay , from my own technical view the weekly and monthly charts are still down and only the daily chart is up. I would feel more confident if it closed above $1.20 on the weekly chart as this is a 50% retracement level of a previous range and would be just one technical indication for another run towards $1.65.It has strong support at around $0.76 so it could still come back here and test this support just be aware.
I believe your purchase was $0.91 as of todays price it sits at $0.64...down 29% or 58% annualised...I hope you had a stop loss and got out? maybe it was a speccy? either way your F/A analysis at the time was wrong...it went past what I expected at the time on very basic T/A but the direction and probability was down and certainly had no indication of moving up at all.
Looks like my fortune telling is pretty good....
I will finish off by saying that if you added chart reading to your arsenal for investing you would have far better success...imho.
I also use F/A but have found that supporting it with T/A helps put the odds in my favour.
In this game you need all the tools that work in your kit bag ready to use..
My statement means that Wave Principle uses past performance to indicate future. The price alone doesn't mean anything-to have an idea where it can go, one must know where it came from, and how long does it took to get to this point. But anyone can stick to their guns, in the end what matters most is not how money was made, but how much.
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WOW really wow'ed today, up 5% for no apparent reason!
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Talk of t/o by private equity (as unlikely as it sounds - look at coles back in the day and the crapstorm that raised)
Volume is crazy strong though so some shorts must be very scared
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Shorters love take over rumors. They're most often a great time for second helpings.
Me thinking - Talk of the genius's that bought DJS getting into niche super marketing has got people second guessing and thinking the Thomas Dux statergy of WOW may be good after all, etc.
Yep, people are that stupid.
Also on a danger day, ie Greece panic, the old - 'people always gonna need food' crap, roles out again.
So, just a good day.
Fundamentally, someone with more than half a brain should buy it.
Better call Sol.
