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World War III, anyone?

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Australian economist Professor Steve Keen warned about dangerous debt levels long before the US credit crisis hit. In a well reasoned analysis of the current economic dilemma, or can we call it a crisis now, Professor Keen pointed out that at some point the level of debt cannot be increased. He also pointed out that Bernanke gained his reputation as an expert on the Great Depression of the 1930’s. Hmmmm, what was so great about it? The trouble is, this is the Depression of the 21st Century. Bernanke, like all academics, is quite brilliant at analysing, but like everyone else on this planet, he isn’t so hot at predicting.

Greenspan’s only solution to everything was to print more money and channel it into the economy as debt through his mates on Wall St who collected huge incomes along the way. Greenspan also let the banks off the leash. As I wrote in another article, ‘DUNCE, they were on a leash for a reason, Greenspan’.

Bernanke is quoted as saying that he would through money out of helicopters to create inflation, which apparently is the cure to everything.

Professor Keen said that a radical new approach to managing the economy would probably be required. In the 1930’s that took the form of ‘The New Deal’. It was the new deal that led the US and the world out of Depression. The ‘New Deal’ as I understand it, was the Government borrowing money and spending it on infrastructure so workers could have a job which meant they could spend.

However, I would beg to differ on that point with Professor Keen. From my reading of history, it was WW11 that bought the world out of the Depression. Suddenly the banks found all the money and liquidity that was needed to build weapons of mass destruction. Where as they had not been able to find the money for around a decade to build a factory.

There is a word that rhymes with bankers, and it is oh so apt.

Wars are quite useful.

Too many people? Solved

Employment problems? Solved, build another army.

Wage demands? Solved, declare a state of emergency domestically or send the army into another pointless and tactically suicidal battle. No, Private Jenkins, you can’t have a pay increase, anyway, you won’t need it, you’ll be dead tomorrow.

Need industry to gear up for production? Solved. And you don’t have to worry about costs. Which delivers profits to the factory owners, some of which filters down to the workers who are very happy about that and promptly go to the hairdresser. Thus, the money trickles down to small business.

Then when it’s all over, the ex-servicemen and women, have jobs cleaning up the mess and re-building.

Too much money sloshing around? Solved. Most of what is being manufactured explodes and ceases to exist. Money gone!

Mind you, the Austrian School of Economics shoots a rather large hole through all that with the ‘broken glass fallacy’. It also is heretical and says that deflation is a good thing. I think they are right on both counts, but you can read why for yourself by searching google.

Well, OK, briefly. If you have a window and it gets broken then the current economic theory sees that as good, since someone gets paid to fix it. WW111 anyone? The Austrian’s say that if you do not break the window in the first place your wealth does not decrease and you can then employ the person to add to your wealth. If you have $100,000 in savings (ho, ho, ho, savings?? What are they mummy? I’ll tell you about it another time Susan, daddy is throwing up) and a house costs $100,000 in year one but deflates to $95,000 in year two, have you become more of less wealthy. You can now buy more house for the same money. You can save because the price of everything isn’t going up faster than your savings. Inflation is a free ride for the productively challenged.

As I said above, goggle it. The Mises Institute is worth a visit.

Where was I? That’s right, WW111.

Under current economic orthodoxy, that is the solution. Note how the US is trying to help out there.
 
Nothing would surprise me in the current world "emotional climate".

I think GWB is getting close to the "Bring it on!!" point.

He's doing a great impression of a mortally wounded Bull with a sore head being backed into a corner by a rampaging tribe of snarling Bears looking to take the wounded beast down....

I would bet the strategic plans for the Invasion of Iran are in the final stages of tweaking right now. What greater incentive could there be for Americans to get all patriotic again? It is a tactic that has been used SO many times over the millenia to kickstart failing civilisations/economies that it is odds on someone should use it again. Just a matter of time.


AJ
 
Yeh,

but hopefully SOME of the Western world would see through the tactic.

Unless the US invaded Europe...

The Iraq war wasnt big enough to provide a sustained uplift in the economy, and I like to think the world is waking up to things like this. There were too many detractors of Iraq, and it would be the same again for Iran.

What the US "need" (for this sort of strategy) is a huge war. Russia perhaps....
 
Yeh,

but hopefully SOME of the Western world would see through the tactic.

Unless the US invaded Europe...

The Iraq war wasnt big enough to provide a sustained uplift in the economy, and I like to think the world is waking up to things like this. There were too many detractors of Iraq, and it would be the same again for Iran.

What the US "need" (for this sort of strategy) is a huge war. Russia perhaps....

You forgot China?
 
You forgot China?

I honestly think the US wouldnt have a show against China.

China could shoot people instead of shells out of its cannons. Sheer weight of numbers imo.

Its all seeming a bit Orwellian to me...
 
Yeh,

The Iraq war wasnt big enough to provide a sustained uplift in the economy, and I like to think the world is waking up to things like this. There were too many detractors of Iraq, and it would be the same again for Iran.

My own suspicion is that the war had very little to do with protecting the American economy, but rather to pool American wealth into fewer and fewer hands to protect themselves from the impending doom of the US collapse.
 
My own suspicion is that the war had very little to do with protecting the American economy, but rather to pool American wealth into fewer and fewer hands to protect themselves from the impending doom of the US collapse.

You may have a point there Santob. As I understand it, would I be right in saying that many neo-conservatives in the US also have affiliations with religous sects that have some pretty extreme fundamentalist Christian beliefs, some of which refer to a coming "Apocalypse"?
 
taiwan - china wants them back.

while i personally dont believe it will end in war, the fear of such later this year (say about olympics time) will create its own economic issues.

have a nice day.
 
If the subject is horror scenarios, try this one. A weakened USA reverts to isolationism and withdraws from its international policing role. China, still hungry for raw materials and unwilling to pay for them, seizes the opportunity and on specious reasoning annexes the Pilbara area of WA. The USA and Europe figuratively shrug their shoulders…
 
If the subject is horror scenarios, try this one. A weakened USA reverts to isolationism and withdraws from its international policing role. China, still hungry for raw materials and unwilling to pay for them, seizes the opportunity and on specious reasoning annexes the Pilbara area of WA. The USA and Europe figuratively shrug their shoulders…

Does anyone know the current value of reasonably sized icebergs in the Antarctic region? (just in case).
 
Does anyone know the current value of reasonably sized icebergs in the Antarctic region? (just in case).

Well ice at the servo sells for about 3 bucks a kilo. So multiply that by a couple million kilos... ;):cool:
 
If the subject is horror scenarios, try this one. A weakened USA reverts to isolationism and withdraws from its international policing role. China, still hungry for raw materials and unwilling to pay for them, seizes the opportunity and on specious reasoning annexes the Pilbara area of WA. The USA and Europe figuratively shrug their shoulders…

Given their track record, I find this idea quite appealing.
 
From ABC, 19 Mar. 08

ARCTIC COULD BE ICE-FREE IN A YEAR: SCIENTIST


New satellite images released by NASA show there has also been a dramatic decline in the amount of perennial sea ice in the Arctic.
However the space agency says there has been a slight recovery in the amount of seasonal ice covering the Arctic.
Last summer, the perennial sea ice, the oldest and thickest kind, melted by a record amount, allowing ships to navigate the North-West Passage connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific.
A scientist from the US Naval Academy, Ted Maksym, says it is only a matter of time before there is no Arctic ice left at all.

"For the first time, as far as we're aware, there is no thick, old ice at the North Pole," he said.
"So again, if we have another warm year like we did last year, it could be for the first time in recorded history, an ice-free North Pole."

Not on topic, but looks that setting up iceberging venture will have longer lifespan in Southern Hemisphere if scientist from the US Naval Academy, Ted Maksym is right.
 
Ever heard of decentralized strategy, it is the strategy america is following today. It has created an invisible enemy , who it can fight on for 100 years (according to presenditial hopeful John). So instead of fighting a short and intense battle, the idea is to prolong the battle distribute the energy, resources over a period of time.

The reason this strategy didn't work earlier , is because enemy was always visible and geographically located. But this war is like chasing Ghosts, you can never claim a victory, the definition of conventional victory does not fit about winning the war against Al-Qaida. In fact, America conqured Afghanistan in 2002, and Iraq in 2003, geographically but after a while insurgency again appear in those regions.

Iraq is a country which has the potential to extend this war for another 5-10 years. It has oil resources to support this war, it has ethinic devision which can always fuel fire and can carry out a long civil war. It is geographically diverse and has unstable ( Iran ) and greedy (Turkey, SAudia,) neighbours.

Off the topic where is the good old journalism, where someone should write about where the hell is Iraq oil money going? What is its situation and who owns those money wells. It is a mystry to me. And no media in the world is interested in knowing about its details. I wonder why?
 
It is a tactic that has been used SO many times over the millenia to kickstart failing civilisations/economies that it is odds on someone should use it again. Just a matter of time.


AJ


Are you suggesting that the USA profits from wars such as IRAQ,....

That is absoulute rubbish,... The trillions of $$$ being spent to fight in IRAQ and AFGANISTAN is sucking the life from the USA eonomy not bringing in profits.

WAR Is not good for any economy especally long drawn out wars such as IRAQ and Afganistan,...
 
It has created an invisible enemy , who it can fight on for 100 years (according to presenditial hopeful John). So instead of fighting a short and intense battle, the idea is to prolong the battle distribute the energy, resources over a period of time.

?

fighting ghosts hey,...

try telling that to my mate who lost an eye, arm and a leg last year in afganistan.

tell the to the guys who's convoys get ambushed, nd hit with waves of up to 90 taliban fighters.
 
But my question is, Can you define victory, when terroriest can hibernate for several years ( 3 years in case of afghan), and then return to attack again. Normal armies donot do that. They either fight or surrender. Hibernation is usually not an option. Gurella figting is a long and dificult battle.


To me Afghanistan is a lost cause. There whole generation was brought up in a war zone ( after Soviet occupation 1979-err... Now). They are used to it. The most important step should be to educate the people of afghanistan. Take guns aways from them , give them books. Take aways the Drug culture, give them reason not to fight. Poppy cultivation and drug business in Afghan is another major issue. Given we succeed in doing that then only we will see its affects in 10-20 years time. It is a bit of like investment. Given we educate them , make them self-relient and drug free( isn't this the mother of all bad causes) , we might see stability in that region in a long distant future.
 
Are you suggesting that the USA profits from wars such as IRAQ,....

That is absoulute rubbish,... The trillions of $$$ being spent to fight in IRAQ and AFGANISTAN is sucking the life from the USA eonomy not bringing in profits.

WAR Is not good for any economy especally long drawn out wars such as IRAQ and Afganistan,...

Who said USA, only few rich people who happen to have invested in American Military Complex ( read and search about Ron Paul ) . It is always a 5% top few who benefit from wars. Remember Rothschild? Someone is always making profit at the expense of others.
 
fighting ghosts hey,...

try telling that to my mate who lost an eye, arm and a leg last year in afganistan.

tell the to the guys who's convoys get ambushed, nd hit with waves of up to 90 taliban fighters.

Perhaps Tysonboss1 you try telling your mates if they don't like it there or what happens to them there they should leave and go back to their own country?
 
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