Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?

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sptrawler said:
China can put on what tarrifs it likes, the trade imbalance is still there, and the perception that Chinese gear is crap is still there.
China import $160 billion of U.S gear, the U.S imports $630 billion of Chinese gear, it is simple maths.
China needs to start and play the game, or they will have to dump gear World wide.
Which will be good for us shoppers in Aus.:xyxthumbs
Click to expand...

So dumping crap gear on us consumers is good for us ?
 
Trump is at it again.

Dow Futures are sharply lower tonight as the Chinese retaliate against Trump's recent tariff increases by hiking tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the United States.

Predictably, gold is up. Looks like we're in for some more volatility. :cool:
 
I had the opportunity to talk to a few American's, while travelling, I would casually bring up Trump in conversation and ask what their opinion of him was, saying we don't get much coverage in Aus.
They all seem to think he is erratic, but the economy is doing really well and they all seem to think he will be re elected.
So it is interesting, the press don't seem to be getting much traction, bagging him.
 
Smurf1976 said:
What?

You mean he shorted the index a week or two ago or something..... :cautious:
Click to expand...

Sorry Smurf, that did sound a little odd didn't it? :confused:

I meant that Trump is at it again, provoking a trade war with China and that his latest tariffs announced on Friday would cause volatility on global markets. And, of course, they did. The DJIA plunged 617.38 points or 2.38% overnight after China retaliated with their own.

I suspect that this tit for tat tariff war will continue to have a negative effect on global markets and we will probably see the DJIA under 25,000 in the coming days.

big.chart-DJIA.gif
 
Another turn on the China-US trade front.

China is looking at strategic export restrictions of rare earth elements to US. China supplies around 80% of US requirements of rare earth elements and these are critical components of the electronics, car manufacturing and defence industy...

Not a good sign for the US economy.

Global markets fall as China prepares to hit back at US in trade war

Dow Jones slumps after Beijing signals readiness to restrict exports of rare-earth elements

Financial markets around the world have sold off sharply after Beijing signalled a readiness to strike back at Washington in their escalating trade war by restricting exports of rare-earth elements.

Wall Street recorded steep losses on Wednesday as the Dow Jones slumped to the lowest level in almost four months, losing about 221 points to trade at 25,126. The S&P 500 index also fell to a two-month low, sliding by 19 points to 2,783.

Against a backdrop of mounting concern over the long-running trade dispute between the US and China, which stands to choke global growth, Beijing signalled that exports of rare-earth elements to the US could be curtailed.

3344.jpg
US-China trade: what are rare-earth metals and what's the dispute?
Read more
Chinese media reports, including the People’s Daily, the flagship newspaper of the Communist party, raised the prospect of the crackdown, which would stand to hit American companies involved in electronics, car production and defence.

Analysts said China handles roughly 80% of US imports of rare earths and that high-tech manufacturers could see their profits crippled by the measures.
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...china-prepares-to-hit-back-at-us-in-trade-war
____________________________

On the other side of the page this could be a great opportunity to get into companies with rare earth interests.:D
 
Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?
Looking likely!!

https://www.theage.com.au/world/asi...-as-india-raises-tariffs-20190616-p51y6d.html

Trump trade fight escalates as India raises tariffs
June 16, 2019 — 11.32am

Mumbai: India has announced it would raise tariffs on 28 categories of imports from the United States, the latest escalation in what has been a slow-motion trade fight between the two countries.

The increased tariffs, on $1.4 billion of goods, went into effect Sunday morning in India and cover almonds, walnuts, apples and finished metal items, among other products.

Unlike other trade battles that President Donald Trump has waged, such as the increasingly bitter feud with China, the conflict with India threatens far less economic pain to either country.

Tariffs on almonds, for example, will go up about 20 per cent under the new rules — but that translates into a wholesale price increase of about 3¢ per kilogram for almonds in the shell, according to industry officials. India is one of the largest markets in the world for almonds from California, which produces most of the global supply, but growers are more focused on wooing Indian shoppers from locally grown nuts like cashews than on the trade duties.

India first proposed the tariffs a year ago in response to the Trump administration's increased tariffs on imported aluminum and steel.

But the Indian government kept postponing the duties as it tried to negotiate a broader trade agreement with Washington. Those talks broke down as India headed to elections this year.

At the end of May, Trump announced he was revoking a preferential trade status for more than $5 billion in imports from India, a move that US officials had been considering for more than a year. That prompted India to finally move forward with its long-threatened tariffs.

The tit-for-tat response allows both countries to signal that they are being tough on trade before two bilateral meetings this month: first a visit by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to New Delhi, and then a planned meeting between Trump and India's recently re-elected prime minister, Narendra Modi, at the G20 summit meeting in Japan.

Those conversations are also expected to address more substantive disputes between the countries, such as the US embargo on Iranian oil and India's planned purchase of Russian-made S-400 air defense systems.
 
Latest Trump action



https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...mble-on-growing-tariffs-rift-between-us-china
By Associated Press, Wire Service Content Aug. 23, 2019, at 7:41 p.m.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump angrily escalated his trade fight with China on Friday, raising retaliatory tariffs and ordering American companies to consider alternatives to doing business there.

He also blamed Jerome Powell, the man he appointed as chairman of the Federal Reserve, for the state of the domestic economy, wondering who was a "bigger enemy" of the U.S. — Powell or Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Even by the turbulent standards of the Trump presidency, his actions, all done via Twitter, were notable, sending markets sharply lower and adding to a sense of uncertainty on the eve of his trip to France for a meeting of global economic powers.

Trump's move came after Beijing announced Friday morning that it had raised taxes on U.S. products. He huddled with advisers, firing off tweets that attacked China and the Fed. And he mockingly attributed a Wall Street drop of 573 points to the withdrawal of a marginal candidate from the Democratic presidential race.
 
I certainly wonder if he is doing his chances of re election any good, even the rusted on in the U.S must be getting a bit nervous, with the tit for tat behaviour.
Shaking China's tree needed to happen IMO, but an end to the too and froing needs to be in sight before their elections next year, even trump must recognise that.
 
Companies are moving from China, which is a good thing. Obviously China is too big for a complete withdrawal of business. But manufacturing is moving on the tariffs. Better products are coming out of places like Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Phillipines, etc. And its good for their economies.

China advanced on the back of stealing tech and hacking other countries databases. Then taking military moves in the Pacific. They needed to be curbed. Their government is an evil, greedy, power hungry regime. And while the US isn't much better: China is outright oppressive.

Trump in this incident is doing what Obama and Bush failed to do.
I reckon Trumps gone 2020 as well.
 
sptrawler said:
I certainly wonder if he is doing his chances of re election any good, even the rusted on in the U.S must be getting a bit nervous, with the tit for tat behaviour.
Shaking China's tree needed to happen IMO, but an end to the too and froing needs to be in sight before their elections next year, even trump must recognise that.
Click to expand...

If Trump gets companies back to the USA then he will get a big boost.

If US companies move from China to Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, India etc then it gives China a kick but there is no benefit to the US and will be neutral for Trump.
 
SirRumpole said:
If Trump gets companies back to the USA then he will get a big boost.

If US companies move from China to Vietnam, Korea, Taiwan, India etc then it gives China a kick but there is no benefit to the US and will be neutral for Trump.
Click to expand...
Economic sense, yes. But it will thwart Chinas plans for a while. Their demographics only go more pear shape from here (from memory?).

Looking at the polling models, Trump is gone. He had a few things going in his favor last time. I don't think he can replicate it this time if the dem base turn out.
 

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