inenigma
Oh Sh*t.... That didn't work.
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Get the dynamite boys...... We've hit rock bottom and need to blast a way thru.
Will the market experience a big drop again?
- Thread starter GundamZeta
- Start date
Will the market experience a big bounce again? yes
Funnily enough the 2 biggest trades i had this year were both longs and both came in October against the huge downtrend
Yes, but the market flattened off towards the end of the year, no v-bounce there.
I'm of the belief presently that January may be a repeat of last January... off the back of 4th quarter US results out soon. They will not be pretty, and effect sentiment here.
After this we may find a current bottom, but have a feeling it will be around the 3000 level.
In 2 weeks time we'll probably know which way it's going. January's always seem to be fairly indicative of the direction for the coming year. But whichever direction, it's likely to be be strong. A month of sideways movement has to break one way or the other.
I'm of the belief presently that January may be a repeat of last January... off the back of 4th quarter US results out soon. They will not be pretty, and effect sentiment here.
After this we may find a current bottom, but have a feeling it will be around the 3000 level.
In 2 weeks time we'll probably know which way it's going. January's always seem to be fairly indicative of the direction for the coming year. But whichever direction, it's likely to be be strong. A month of sideways movement has to break one way or the other.
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Like the US unemployment figures that drove us to new lows?
Agree, January's do seem to be fairly indicative of the direction for the coming year, but these are times unseen.
Does it have to break one way or the other? Not necissarily.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Like the US unemployment figures that drove us to new lows?
Agree, January's do seem to be fairly indicative of the direction for the coming year, but these are times unseen.
Does it have to break one way or the other? Not necissarily.
Yer,
I can't see much that would make folks want to jump back into the market apart from excess liquidity again sloshing around (which delivered us to this point in the first place).
Commods are in the tank, earnings slaughtered, unemployment about to go on a moonshot, etc.
But re excess liquidity, the banks have deep pockets and short arms atm... apart from the literal helicopter drop, I don't see where it's going to come from.
BentRod
ZZZZzzzzZZZZzzzzzzzz
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Not a chance, we are "poised for a surge" :screwy:
:http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,24851442-462,00.html
Marc Faber's response is worth a listen:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=04u-jfRrW0s&feature=related
some background on Faber:
Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.[citation needed]
A lot of people[who?] say that he gets the trend right, but the timing wrong. The prime example was his calling NASDAQ top and advising investors go long commodities, including gold, in 1999.[citation needed] He lost money shorting US stocks since 1999. Now he admits that market timing is very difficult. His market advice since 2000 is quite accurate and he predicted the rise of oil, precious metals, other commodities, emerging markets and especially China in his book (Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery). He also correctly predicted the slide of U.S. dollar (since 2002)[citation needed] and the 5/06 and 2/07 mini-corrections[citation needed]. He states that there are few value investments available now, except for farmland and real estate in some emerging markets like Argentina and Vietnam.[citation needed] He believed in early 2007 that a major market correction was "imminent." (Fox News, 2-2007); however, by 5/2007 he was saying that the U.S. equities were moderately overvalued -less so than the emerging markets.
His most recent interview (June 2008, see external link for Bloomberg) goes over his bearish views on a wide spectrum of investments: stocks, real estate and commodities. He is extremely critical of the Fed's inflationary actions. However, his recent views are almost deflationary except for holding precious metals.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=04u-jfRrW0s&feature=related
some background on Faber:
Faber is famous for advising his clients to get out of the stock market one week before the October 1987 crash.[citation needed]
A lot of people[who?] say that he gets the trend right, but the timing wrong. The prime example was his calling NASDAQ top and advising investors go long commodities, including gold, in 1999.[citation needed] He lost money shorting US stocks since 1999. Now he admits that market timing is very difficult. His market advice since 2000 is quite accurate and he predicted the rise of oil, precious metals, other commodities, emerging markets and especially China in his book (Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Age of Discovery). He also correctly predicted the slide of U.S. dollar (since 2002)[citation needed] and the 5/06 and 2/07 mini-corrections[citation needed]. He states that there are few value investments available now, except for farmland and real estate in some emerging markets like Argentina and Vietnam.[citation needed] He believed in early 2007 that a major market correction was "imminent." (Fox News, 2-2007); however, by 5/2007 he was saying that the U.S. equities were moderately overvalued -less so than the emerging markets.
His most recent interview (June 2008, see external link for Bloomberg) goes over his bearish views on a wide spectrum of investments: stocks, real estate and commodities. He is extremely critical of the Fed's inflationary actions. However, his recent views are almost deflationary except for holding precious metals.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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just for a change in the weather im hoping for a slight surge.
getting a little sleepy with all the doom / gloom.
though fear may yet present some further buying opportunities ?
jonny
getting a little sleepy with all the doom / gloom.
though fear may yet present some further buying opportunities ?
jonny
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Salvation is at hand!
The Great US Car Industry Bailout has saved The World!
Share markets across the globe have soared on news that GM & GMAC have got the deepest of GWB's & BA's blessings and have at last got their hands on a steaming pile of public monies to play wid.
Forget the worst US consumer sentiment in a gazillion years.
Forget the worst slump in US housing prices in a gazillion years.
Forget the coming worst Dec Q company reports in a gazillion years.
It was just a bad dream.
The soaring markets are obviously proof of the power of unbridled optimism vs grinding pessimism.
Rejoice!!
Happy New Year is almost upon us :bananasmi
Cheers to all ASF'ers....
:jump:
aj
Salvation is at hand!
The Great US Car Industry Bailout has saved The World!
Share markets across the globe have soared on news that GM & GMAC have got the deepest of GWB's & BA's blessings and have at last got their hands on a steaming pile of public monies to play wid.
Forget the worst US consumer sentiment in a gazillion years.
Forget the worst slump in US housing prices in a gazillion years.
Forget the coming worst Dec Q company reports in a gazillion years.
It was just a bad dream.
The soaring markets are obviously proof of the power of unbridled optimism vs grinding pessimism.
Rejoice!!
Happy New Year is almost upon us :bananasmi
Cheers to all ASF'ers....
:jump:
aj
Yep, No bad news, All good, GMAC will be issuing sub prime car loans to the poor, unemployed without deposits. Nice steep rally coming up for 09 so great for shorters in few months.
Market Update for December
Market Condition: Volatile Bear
by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, then you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and I'm happy to share that information with my readers.
However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.
These monthly updates are in the first issue of Tharp’s Thoughts each month. This allows us to get the closing month’s data. These updates cover 1) the market type (first mentioned in the April 30 edition of Tharp’s Thoughts), 2) the five week status on each of the major U.S. stock market indices, 3) our four star inflation-deflation model plus John Williams’ statistics, 4) tracking the dollar, and 5) the five strongest and weakest areas of the overall market.
Part I: Market Commentary
Since this market update is coming out early, it only includes data through December 26th and that includes the month end changes. I’ll do a year end review in the middle of January.
I don’t plan to extensively discuss what’s going on because I’d prefer to end the year with a little optimism. For example, some of the biggest years ever for the stock market occurred during the Great Depression. 2008 was certainly one of the worst years in the history of the U.S., so perhaps 2009 will be much better.
On December 15th, the Federal Reserve effectively lowered its interest rates to zero for the first time in history. It basically shows that we have the potential for another depression like era. Bernanke was a student of the Great Depression and will do anything he can to avoid deflation. Well, he’s now done everything he can, so we’ll have to see what happens. One good thing is that mortgage rates have now hit 30 year lows.
Part II: The Current Stock Market Type Is Volatile Bear
I have now substituted my new market type for the 1-2-3 model (which is still red light). I’ve done this because the 1-2-3 model has now gone below a certain PE ratio (that has turned Steve Sjuggerud quite bullish) and that automatically turns one of the three signals to go. However, I expect us to be in a secular bear market until the PE ratios of the S&P 500 reach single digits. Thus, the 1-2-3 doesn’t really fit my current beliefs.
My advice, once again, is that secular bear markets usually end when the PE ratios of the S&P 500 hit around 6-8, for example, 1932, 1942, and 1982. We’re in the worst crisis since the Great Depression and perhaps in one that is worse. Are you willing to risk the PE ratio of the S&P 500 dropping to single digits? My advice, get in the market when prices are above the 200-day moving average and get out when they are below (or at least stay out until our market type turns bullish for at least two weeks). That would have kept you out of this market throughout 2008.
Market Condition: Volatile Bear
by
Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, then you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and I'm happy to share that information with my readers.
However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.
These monthly updates are in the first issue of Tharp’s Thoughts each month. This allows us to get the closing month’s data. These updates cover 1) the market type (first mentioned in the April 30 edition of Tharp’s Thoughts), 2) the five week status on each of the major U.S. stock market indices, 3) our four star inflation-deflation model plus John Williams’ statistics, 4) tracking the dollar, and 5) the five strongest and weakest areas of the overall market.
Part I: Market Commentary
Since this market update is coming out early, it only includes data through December 26th and that includes the month end changes. I’ll do a year end review in the middle of January.
I don’t plan to extensively discuss what’s going on because I’d prefer to end the year with a little optimism. For example, some of the biggest years ever for the stock market occurred during the Great Depression. 2008 was certainly one of the worst years in the history of the U.S., so perhaps 2009 will be much better.
On December 15th, the Federal Reserve effectively lowered its interest rates to zero for the first time in history. It basically shows that we have the potential for another depression like era. Bernanke was a student of the Great Depression and will do anything he can to avoid deflation. Well, he’s now done everything he can, so we’ll have to see what happens. One good thing is that mortgage rates have now hit 30 year lows.
Part II: The Current Stock Market Type Is Volatile Bear
I have now substituted my new market type for the 1-2-3 model (which is still red light). I’ve done this because the 1-2-3 model has now gone below a certain PE ratio (that has turned Steve Sjuggerud quite bullish) and that automatically turns one of the three signals to go. However, I expect us to be in a secular bear market until the PE ratios of the S&P 500 reach single digits. Thus, the 1-2-3 doesn’t really fit my current beliefs.
My advice, once again, is that secular bear markets usually end when the PE ratios of the S&P 500 hit around 6-8, for example, 1932, 1942, and 1982. We’re in the worst crisis since the Great Depression and perhaps in one that is worse. Are you willing to risk the PE ratio of the S&P 500 dropping to single digits? My advice, get in the market when prices are above the 200-day moving average and get out when they are below (or at least stay out until our market type turns bullish for at least two weeks). That would have kept you out of this market throughout 2008.
all i know is there have been some bargain buys around lately and if your a short term trader you could have made some easy dollars... and as for the big question will the market plummet again, i believe so the next few years will be a bit of a rollercoaster, won't be buying anything long term any time soon if i get a decent gain on anything ill take it and run, and i wont have all my eggs in one basket. Thats just my plan.
Going off this, there is going to be plenty of selling in the first quarter due to further hedge fund redemptions, including those based in Australia. Plenty of scope for further falls in early 2009.. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,24850205-20142,00.html
