Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Will the All Ords get down to 4769?

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vishalt said:
Getting closer and closer now,

S&P/ASX FUTURES: Pointing 94 points/1.78% lower to 5176.

I wouldn't be surprised if we went to 5100, or 5050 and then break that by the end of the week.

After all we must suck up to the mighty US Dow Jones Industrial Average as much as possible, seeing as they broke 12,000 its only FAIR that we break 5000!

It's funny, the closer the $A and the $US get, the more it symbolises our values; pretty much the same except for gun laws.
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We may have to re-visit those gun laws if chaos looms.... :(



AJ
 
The might of deleverage!

It is pretty clear, the only reason our indexes were and are at values they are at due to the abundance of cheap money in the past.

Buy CFDs, buy on margin, sell the house and pump the money into super tax free, borrow against the house and buy shares ...

How, they'll go to where their fair values and people should consider themselves lucky to stop at 4769
 
Buffettology said:
ha ha, good one!

However, not entirely true!

Fundamentally IN AUSTRALIA that is true, but in the US, it has well and truly spilled over into the retail sector (which is of paramount importance).

This could, or could not, to a large extent affect China/India/Europe and hence Australia.

Only time will tell.
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Great post,

Nice to see someone get the order in the correct manner! US down spills to europe china, china slows down affects us! great great great could not agree more!

I have always yelled sometimes screamed, don't worry about China, the buck stops with America! that card falls, down comes the house. (slowly we hope)

Good trading to u Buffettology.
 
Pat said:
Right now this volitility has me watching and waiting. Not holding anything :cool:
If we break through this 5400 area we may just see 4800.
Just being a pessimist.
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Could today be the bottom?
 
Pat said:
Could today be the bottom?
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I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up!

But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...:eek:
 

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Gundini said:
I'm wanting to believe it is, so this 50% theory stands up!

But, this chart borrowed from another post suggests we are nowhere near the bottom, and suggests we are in the fear stage ...:eek:
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As I posted in that other thread, not necessarily - if you use logarithmic price scaled XAO all AllOrds charts (as I believe you should when considering that sentiment/price graph as posted), then it looks like we are well and truly in the middle of the capitulation, maybe even the despair phase. I certianly hope this is the case!!! :(

Anyone care to comment on that point? Ie Log vs Linear scaled charts when using the posted sentiment chart? I think it is a critical and important point. If you use a linear chart then the linear "mean" line represents ever diminishing returns into the future, which does not seem correct - therefore I reckon the posted sentiment chart implies a log price/value scale.

Cheers,

Beej
 
galey said:
Looking at the 50% ranges it has a very good chance.
These 50% levels act as important support or resistance levels.

For example - In 1929 the Dow Jones made a high at 386 and crashed to 195 or 50% before rallying to 297. What is so important about 297? This level is also 50% between the high of 386 and the low 297.

In 1987 the All Ordinaries index culminated at 2306 before crashing to 50% or 1151. It then rallied to 50% between the high and low and made top at 1785.
In this current phase of market activity the major low pivot point is 2666 and the major high pivot point is 6873. I doubt the All Ords will decline to 50% of 6873 or 3436 because there has not been 60 years since 1987. 60 years is the approximate time between the last three major crashes. However, it's highly likely the index will see 50% between the major range and find support near 50% or the half way point between 6872 and 2666 being 4769. That means the index has another 1000 to go. We shall see??

Check out the weekly All Ords chart declined to 5221 and rallied only to hit its head at precisely 50% :banghead: between 6873 and 5221 or 6047. The market made a top at 6057 suggesting the first phase of this down trend is complete
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Bump... All Ords at 4,754.20

Can't imagine that today will mark the end of the Bear, so where to from here? 3436? :eek:
 

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I'd say we are in the start of the despair phase, maybe 1-3 days before it pops back up.

Now I think alot hinges on the oil price now, will it get below $90 or was today the worst of it. When you get the oil price and bad financial news feeding off each other on the same day, it certainly hammers the share price lower. The commodity and oil price needs to stabilize as well.

Now unless there's a heap more bad news I'm unaware of, I'd say that for the quality companies, they couldn't get too much lower. But there are always exceptions, especially if a bit of extra panic sets in and feeds off itself driving the market as a whole lower.

Either that or these turning points are simply extra rungs on the ladder down to despair. There's not too many indices that you can measure which haven't already turned down lately it seems.
 
So, are you calling a bottom for quality stock, deadset?

That seems a very brave call...

Interesting the definition of "quality stock" too! It wasn't that long ago that the likes of Allco, Centro, Babcock and Brown, and many others would have been thought of as quality stock. Best for another thread I think.

In the context of this thread though, does anybody know how this 50% theory is supposed to pan out from here? The originator of this thread, galey seems to have made his last post on Feb 17 this year...

If the truth be known, 3436 doesn't seem that unrealistic. It's far from over in the US, so outside of a small bounce, surely there is a lot more pain to come for those still invested in this market...
 
Not to sure about how the 50% rule/whatever is supposed to pan out, but today could definately be the bottom, just like any other day. ;)
We're at a good on the chart to see a bottom. I hopeing it is the end of the plummeting bear, It's been a while and I've been out of the market for sometime. :(
 
Split opinions so far...

Some are calling the bottom is here - or abouts...
Whilst others are calling the bottom yet to come...

So, can someone put up a poll and see what the general concesus is?

I'm thinking this is not the bottom.. but what do i know.. i'm nett long on some 'quality blue chips'...
 
When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it. We won't know until after the fact.
 
Pat said:
Not to sure about how the 50% rule/whatever is supposed to pan out, but today could definately be the bottom, just like any other day. ;)
We're at a good on the chart to see a bottom. I hopeing it is the end of the plummeting bear, It's been a while and I've been out of the market for sometime. :(
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Yes Pat, today is definately the bottom, for today, hehehe... But I, like you, have been out of the market for so long that I'm am also getting a bit itchy. I think when you are figuring when to re-enter, two things definately come to mind. Firstly, if you think a stock is worth entering at $35 on a downtrending market, why wouldn't you make a mental note to buy in on the way up through $35. In the meantime, the stock may go to $24 before it bottoms, and you could grab it at $26 or $27 on the way through, thus saving you a packet in stress and cash. Secondly, I believe the first sign of a recovery from this Bear market will show in the recovery of the US housing market.

Junior said:
When we do reach the real bottom...I don't think anyone can confidently call it. We won't know until after the fact.
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Exactly... With what has transpired over the last nearly 12 months now, and people picking bottoms at every resistant level. There was a bottom from mid March that rallied nearly 1000 points, but here we are 1400 away from that rally, and I'm only seeing the news getting worse! I'm happy to stay out until the trend is clear....
 
Am i looking at this the wrong way, or should we presume the NAB dividend and all banking pay outs will fall dramatically which is why the banks are getting smashed?

if nab can keep a dividend of $2 per year, your looking at 9 %...

its whether or not they cut their pay out dividends....
 

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