Who went short yesterday or this morning?
- Thread starter >Apocalypto<
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>Apocalypto<
20.03.2012
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Realist said:
Realist thanks for hijacking my topic and turning it into a argument!
Glad the forecast helped!dodgers said:I sold out of all my short-term investments last Thursday and went short the SPI yesterday afternoon.
No I don't have a crystal ball I've been following all the threads of Yogi, Magdoran and everyone else on Trading the SPI (both Gann and non-Gann) and XOA analysis etc etc...
the posts in particular on Trading the SPI-Gann Technicques got the high to the day (Magdoran picked 24 feb +/- 1 day...spot on!)
thanks guys!
also if you follow e/w theory (on many different posts in this forum) we've been expecting that we're close to the top of wave 3 of 5 for some time
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Realist said:
Realist, I understand your argument re: everyone claiming to pick it, and also that some people will randomly guess right on a forum of such a size - however, I have a solution for you - for anyone who claims to have picked the correction one can look at their previous posting history to see the accuracy of their previous predictions, which would generally indicate pure luck or a degree of skill.
For example, Nick Radge, a seemingly highly respected poster on this site, has a bad track record in posted predictions to ASF. I believe he may have a web page where he makes other predictions which I have not looked at, but if one were to look at his posted predictions to ASF, the accuracy rate is not amazing. Nothing personal against Mr Radge, but its one example that springs to mind
Realist
Billie Jean is not my lover
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nizar said:
That's right!
No-one picked Feb 28th as a major correction before it happened. No one.
Certainly not me, I screamed swear words when I saw how much I lost.
Everyone was in my opinion ready for a correction, it was obvious aafter how much the market has risen recently and over the past few years, any bad news anywhere would spur on a fall, and 2.5% is nothing in the context of things.
Magdoran did say there would be a downturn on Feb 23rd, but as I said how can you make money from that? You can't! Cause if he shorted on that date he'd be stopped out.
There were a few here claiming they had closed positions, shorted, and called it. Well done if they did, but if you close positions you pay brokerage3 and tax, for a 2.5% drop it aint worth it. If you short be prepared to be stopped out if you are not exactly on the money, and if you have a crystal ball and call it - please post it before the crash not after.
Rant over, my apologies.
And yes anyone can buy stocks and hold them for a 40% profits over 4 months. Few do though. Very few indeed. No-one else here that I've seen.
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Realist said:
Wow - you made money in a bull market...... Amazing!
In the month of February alone, I made 35% - it ain't that fricken hard when everything is going up...... But more importantly, I lost nothing today - why, cause I was all cash from Friday last week. How much did your portfolio fall today as a consequence of todays big fall????????
Personally, I wouldn't be bagging Mag - his analysis is excellent and I for one appreciate what he has to say from a T/A point of view. Personally, I am here to learn more about how to make consistent money from the stock market, not just in hyped up bull markets. If/When you go through a bear market, you will learn this quickly.
It doesn't take a genius to hold on to Uranium stocks when every Tom Dick and Harry has their money in the things. But hey, don't listen to me, just continue to bag ppl on this forum who actually provide meaningful T/A analysis!
>Apocalypto<
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GUYS NO MORE ARGUING ON THIS TOPIC
IF YOU WANT TO THE MAKE A T/A VERUS REALIST TOPIC AND TAKE IT OUT THERE!
THIS IS FOR PEOPLE THAT WENT SHORT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS!
IF YOU WANT TO THE MAKE A T/A VERUS REALIST TOPIC AND TAKE IT OUT THERE!
THIS IS FOR PEOPLE THAT WENT SHORT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS!
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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stoxclimber said:
Nick, or anyone else for that matter, doesn't have to be accurate. Proper trade management is what makes a profitable trader. The accuracy only improves the number of winners, not the profitability. Even fundemetal investors could do this, why they all don't is beyond me.
This is the first time i have picked a top (if thats what i've done), and i may have got lucky or just been looking to the right indexs at the right time. Its not impossible to do this, its price action, not EW, or GANN that i used to tip me off. I went to cash because i only trade shares, not CFDs, futures or warrants, and i only trade long and i can't go short if i wanted.
Its not any skin off my nose if you don't believe me, i've got an account full of cash and i feel very happy for that.
Incidently, i suggested to my girlfriend that she sell her Chinese shares on Friday. She was a bit down when she saw Mondays gains, but relieved after Tuesday. Now we are both trying hard to pick the bottom in the markets that we trade so we can get trading again.
Good luck to all, i hope those of you that hold will see your gains come back soon.
Cheers,
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CanOz said:
The point is about the accuracy percentage of these predictions, and Realist is complaining that if one makes 100 predictions some are surely going to be proved true.
I encourage you to look at Nicks posting history for yourself (a good example as there are not many posts).
And in regard to accuracy, its common sense that as accuracy improves, profit improves ceteris paribus. You can dance around the point all you like, but surely you must admit this.
