Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Who actually predicted this Property boom?

robots

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hello,

good evening,

i know most RE agents always believe no time better than now to buy and has been their moto for a long time now

so well done RE agents, any others for the list?

thankyou
professor robots
 
hello,

gee, the land rats were that far ahead of all the pro's

no-one else, amazing

many will be reading articles from the land rats with a lot more interest now i guess

thankyou
professor robots
 
funny, is that what we landlords are...land rats?
it was a really simple understanding of human nature, and some experience and history, that spelt out where property would go , under those circumstances.....too easy...
oh and notice how the US are following us again, as in the past, they follow us on property, so we go up, so do they....
yet all the kids and others were saying the opposite,,,ie that we follow the US...well not on property we dont....maybe the stockmarket....:D
 
Just heard on the business channel that personal bankruptcies are up 33% :eek:

Spoke to new home builders 'places'(a division of one of the big builders, can't remember which one) they mentioned they are having quite a few FHB having to pull out due to finance not being approved.
They said now they will not deal with anyone unless they have their finance 100% locked in, because they are sick of wasting their time and their schedule being stuffed up. Seems to be a growing problem.

At the moment they(and their parent builder) and Simmons have start dates filled up till February, makes you wonder how much of these sales over the last couple of months will fall through due to finance issues.

One question, where does RP Data pull their sales figures from?
Is it from the contract of sales, or is it from the settlement ie actual title transfer?
I know that REIV get theirs from the agents which would be contract of sales

cheers
 
One question, where does RP Data pull their sales figures from?
Is it from the contract of sales, or is it from the settlement ie actual title transfer?
I know that REIV get theirs from the agents which would be contract of sales

cheers

They get reported sales at contract exchange from about 75% of R/E agents nationally I think (more timely), plus they then get the settlement data from the various state land titles offices (obviously this takes longer, but covers 100% of all sales). So if anything changes between exchange and settlement it does get factored in.
 
They get reported sales at contract exchange from about 75% of R/E agents nationally I think (more timely), plus they then get the settlement data from the various state land titles offices (obviously this takes longer, but covers 100% of all sales). So if anything changes between exchange and settlement it does get factored in.
So for a given period they include both contract of sale and settlements within that period is that correct?

What happens if last month a contract of sale was cancelled, do they readjust those figures for that last month, or is it that sale just does not get added(again), since it wont reach settlement, into the future figures?

I'm trying to get my head around the timing of the figures and how cancellations of contracts affect the figures.

cheers
 
hello,

good evening fellow members and guests, great day

thought i should revisit this thread to see if any other additions to the list, which so far includes real estate agents and real estate and real estate agents

no economists?

thankyou
robots
 
hello,

good evening fellow members and guests, great day

thought i should revisit this thread to see if any other additions to the list, which so far includes real estate agents and real estate and real estate agents

no economists?

thankyou
robots

Ive seen 2 in my time.

Was involved in property in each and had no idea they would BOOM.
But in the future I'm now able to see the signs if ever they appear again.

Positive gearing was a certainty you could guarantee it.
Even with zero down. That was Pre BOOM.
Rarely seen and will be rarely seen again.
 
I dont think any of the gurus predicted the boom.....
it was purely a flight from the horrors of the GFC
most investors want their money at work, not sitting idly in a deposit somewhere...., I predicted a flight of money into property, it was a copy cat reaction to the tech wreck, and the flight of money then into property.

when I went looking post tech wreck, none of the agents were predicting a boom...in fact I find the agents are just as depressed as the rest of society, unless they are in the middle of a boom....cause a lot of them play the stock market too

I figured after the tech wreck, there would be a lot of disgruntled investors, they would go back to the safety of bricks and mortar....
I bought quite a few little bargains...it was a buyers market then in 2000 to 2002
I had intended holding them for 10 years or more....
by late 2003 to mid 2004 the boom appeared, all those cashed up city folk were selling out, and buying the tree change areas for a third to half the price, and had stacks of cash left over...
the agents called me, I was offered triple the price to sell....
so I sold half of them.....well they had reached my 10 year goal, in just 2-3 years

the same thing is happening now, post GFC, I knew the investors would wait it out, while the FHB let loose, and re- enter the market after Feb- Mar 2010....the upgraders went rampant last year with the low interest rates, and sold to the FHB's....

the RBA sent interest rates rocketing, too fast, too soon...
I am expecting a slow down whilst the economy drifts thru the
2nd phase of the GFC....
the GFC has done more to damage investors confidence than the tech wreck...
I expect the property market to cruise along, investors need to park their money somewhere...some will never return to the stockmarket again....
others will return to stocks, but not until confidence in the world economy has turned...
they dont have to pick the bottom, or wait for the tops

still plenty of bargains out there...you dont need booms to make the money for you....just slow consistent steady growth, year on year
 
i've seen Henry Kaye's name thrown around in conjunction with it, more as a contributing factor than as a prognosticating wizard, mind you.
 
it would appear to be the boom come post a hot rental market .. approx 12-18 months ago the rental market was crazy (talking sydney) on the news with pictures of the lines out the door.. it cooled off sales started peaking.. Nov , Dec there was absolutely minimum stock levels for homes below $1m.. Jan - April HOT market ... CBD market between 650 & 900k still seems pretty reasonable ...

Signs of overheating property market potential end of the boom -

Next interest rate rise
First episode of the block appearing on television
Return of moving house show with what is his name Keaton from the castle..

IMO
 
it would appear to be the boom come post a hot rental market .. approx 12-18 months ago the rental market was crazy (talking sydney) on the news with pictures of the lines out the door.. it cooled off sales started peaking.. Nov , Dec there was absolutely minimum stock levels for homes below $1m.. Jan - April HOT market ... CBD market between 650 & 900k still seems pretty reasonable ...

Signs of overheating property market potential end of the boom -

Next interest rate rise
First episode of the block appearing on television
Return of moving house show with what is his name Keaton from the castle..

IMO

That would be Michael Caton ...
 
hello,

pulled out my old research files and just cannot find anybody else who predicted this boom (of course the usual kings at ASF), but no others reports or articles

thankyou
robots
 
Hi,

I cannot believe there is not one person who predicted this latest boom in RE.

Incredible. Even the expects cannot even see the writing on the wall until it is written.

Cheers
 
Hi,

I cannot believe there is not one person who predicted this latest boom in RE.

Incredible. Even the expects cannot even see the writing on the wall until it is written.

Cheers

hello,

i know, amazing, thought Alan Kohler on the ABC would of had an article in the Eureka Report, nothing

then i thought DrDoom with all his expertise, but checked reports, nothing

right, checked The Age Investor supplement on Sunday, David Potts has to of got it, nup nothing

then I thought i will go to the one and only: Kochie, went to website, nothing

whats going on

thankyou
robots
 
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