Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[swingstar]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

It`s part of the mindset one must have: don`t listen to crap.

Agreed. There's a lot of crap posted on this forum.

Perhaps there should be an ignore option?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Duc,

Well if it's entertainment that you're looking for, my mistake, you have undoubtably found it.

yee, haa

Regarding beating the market, you think beating the market is hard, yet earning an income from the market is easy, or easier..............

a fabrication of what was actually written :nono:

As regards my *system* time will tell.

yes, time is on your side right?

Without that accountability, I could claim anything I choose, and who's to gainsay me?.....................This is the situation currently with this debate, discussion..........we have multiple people claiming all sorts of results, but not a shred of accountability.

Your accountability is important isn`t it?

If you are happy with that situation, then jog on.....................
I personally would like to see some evidence of profitability if profitability is claimed. If it is a discussion on *theory* that's fine, I enjoy discussing theory as much as the next person.

As I said don`t listen to the crap. If I do decide to post some realtime trades I`ll PM you to inform. Theory, love it.

Walk the plank...
Snake

 

[ghotib]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

AMP made big losses in 1998 and 1999 I would not have bought them. I do not buy companies that make losses, simple as that.

And if I had bought earlier and the Fundamentals changed so dramatically. I would have sold them

But if I held them over the whole time I'd be only down a bit after dividends anyway. They are down about a 3rd now.

Sure I could buy shares and they go belly up, I diversify widely for this very reason. I'd lose 8% at most of my total capital, and claim that back against a gain - reducing my losses further.

Yabbut this is not Graham or Buffet. They do not diversify, they concentrate.

Not saying your approach is wrong, just as far as I can see that it's not the same as Graham or Buffet.

Ghoti

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yabbut this is not Graham or Buffet. They do not diversify, they concentrate.

Correct!! Buffett does concentrate and specialise. And I do not.

I'm no Warren Buffett, I'm not as smart as him, I don't do the research and have the knowledge he has. I know my weaknesses.

Both Graham and Buffett would recommend I diversify.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

hi ducati

I think you'll find the vasy majority of people place no credibility or whatever in any claims of trades, profits etc etc in chatrooms.....I certainly don't

I also haven't seen any claims of trades in real time, live or whatever else you want to call them.....I've only seen people make claims after they allegedly made a trade, albeit only by a few mins in some case but imo whether it is only a few mins or 6 hrs it makes no difference because anyone with access to the course of sales can look up a historical profitable entry point in the c.o.s and claim it is theirs and since you have no way of knowing who is actually siting at the keyboard at any particular time there is no way of verifying with 100% certainty whether a chatter's claim is true or not.

So the bottom line here is, don't get worked up when people make claims and then run away when asked to verify them.....it happens all the time for various reasons

cheers

bullmarket

 

[bunyip]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Duc old mate, You've got 'evidence' on the brain.
If it was important to me that you believe me, then I'd be going out of my way to convince you, including providing evidence if need be.
If I was trying to sell my system commmercially, then once again I'd be providing evidence in an effort to convince people.

But I'm not selling my system, I'm sharing it in the hope that it will help othes.
And it's not important to me that you or anyone else believes me. I don't give a stuff whether you do or don't. Quite honestly, I couldn't care less.

If you want proof of the workability of a particular system, then I suggest you try out the system for yourself to prove or disprove its value.

I guess you've read a book or two on trading or investing? Maybe you should write to the authors and demand that they supply evidence to back up their claims in the book!

Bunyip

 

[ducati916]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Snake

If I make a claim,..........and I love making claims, I'll always be prepared to back it up by offering real time trades.

I'm aways interested in *live* trades from anybody, novice or expert.
Live trades expose you to the volatility of the market, **** happens, and the manner in which the market environment is managed is always a source of interest to me.

Therefore feel free to PM your trades to me.

As I said don`t listen to the crap.

There is however subtle differences within the offered stool.
We have the stool sample provided by the easily discerned novice.
Then we have the stool sample provided by the alleged *expert*

It is the second stool sample that I take issue with, as it masquerades as common earth soil, and is all the more dangerous due to the difficulty in running laborotory tests on said sample.

Therefore, to test the stool sample and gather evidence is important.
This is done in the scientific manner, and asking for a fresh stool sample, not one that was brought from home and is stone cold.

Mr bullmarket

I also haven't seen any claims of trades in real time, live or whatever else you want to call them.....I've only seen people make claims after they allegedly made a trade, albeit only by a few mins in some case but imo whether it is only a few mins or 6 hrs it makes no difference because anyone with access to the course of sales can look up a historical profitable entry point in the c.o.s and claim it is theirs and since you have no way of knowing who is actually siting at the keyboard at any particular time there is no way of verifying with 100% certainty whether a chatter's claim is true or not.

In essence I agree.
I am not unduely concerned about exact to the second timing.
I am quite happy to be generous............I am an extremely generous chap.
I have found that most posters who post trades in real time tend to be pretty genuine, and confident of their methodology.

This is especially true of *longer term* methodologies.
Day-trades..........hell a couple of seconds either side is fine.

jog on
d998

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Some traders make alot of money Bullmarket. I've noticed the really smart traders make money the easy way....

By running $5000 courses, or $600 one-day seminars spruiking their revolutionary methods to unsuspecting newbies.

"The Director of Trading Secrets is Louise Bedford. Louise has more than a decade of trading experience and has profited in all types of market conditions"

Wow, someone that made some money in all types of market conditions. Where do I send my cheque?

"For one week out of every month, Louise Bedford will take you through appropriate trading psychological theory and set a series of mental exercises to complete, sometimes on a daily basis."

Mental exercises, very useful.

"topics to be covered will include relaxation techniques, your inner child, how to create a morning journal and how to re-train your mind to derive superior trading results. These psychological techniques have stood the test of time,
and represent the culmination of over 2 years of research."

Relaxation. Hahaha. Give up trading. If you want to relax - invest!!

2 whole years of research. Oh dear

gimme a break, this angers me bigtime.. :swear:

(I am not against trading, I am totally against $5000 courses that teach relaxation, inner child, and mental exercises though)

 

[ghotib]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Correct!! Buffett does concentrate and specialise. And I do not.

I'm no Warren Buffett, I'm not as smart as him, I don't do the research and have the knowledge he has. I know my weaknesses.

Both Graham and Buffett would recommend I diversify.

I think they'd recommend that you buy into an index fund

I'm trying to figure out my own approach to value investing, same as you are, so I'd really like to understand how we've got to such different positions about it. As far as I can see, you're buying blue chips on price dips. I haven't seen anything about how you determine values, and hence how you know when the prices have dipped low enough for you to buy?

For instance, what made you decide to buy BHP recently instead of WOW?


Ghoti

 

[wayneL]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Dear Mr Ducster,

You do like to carry grudges don't you.

I respectfully decline your offer of a trading challenge. I also decline, in accordance with the agreement both you and I made to Joe, to indulge in acrimonious discourse with you. I will be honouring that agreement.

Good Day and Best Wishes.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

For instance, what made you decide to buy BHP recently instead of WOW?

The main reason is Woolworths almost has hit market saturation in Aus, and their P/E ratio is high at 21.4. I can't see WOW growing significantly, they have about 57% market share already from what I know.

I bought BHP a while back for $23 and they went to $32 then back down to $25 - I thought what the hell I'll buy some more while I can.

BHP dipped 21% recently and the P/E is only 12 (way less than WOW), WOW did not dip at all. I believe I got BHP at a discount. If WOW dipped 25% next week I'd buy them.

I'd be pretty sure BHP will rise more over the next few years than WOW will.

Only time will tell.

 

[eddievanhalen]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

This thread cracks me up - I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry actually. We have a whole lot of one-upmanship here dominated by traders who refuse to believe that anyone has an approach that produces "mega returns" just because they cannot manage it themselves.

I am not going to even try and make any claims myself , but let's just say that I am in contact with traders all day every day and have seen trading statements/tax returns of my closer trading friends.

I'm not going to get myself into an argument with the usual suspects here but let me say that I talk from some experience - I in fact used to be a one eyed Buffet fan who believed that the returns he has produced over a very long period (say 20-25% pa ) were the ultimate and that technical analysis was akin to palm reading.

Over the years my opinions have changed.

Let me just make a few points to those who refuse to believe that there are possibilities beyond what their closed minds might suggest and I will leave it at that. I have no wish and no need to get into a philosophical argument or to prove anything to anyone other than myself. I get the feeling Bunyip is a bit the same and for mine I'd be guessing he's the most likely here to be making spectacular returns.

My points as follows:

-most beginning traders suffer from undercapitlisation and are not aware of what is possible until they trade more significant amounts (myself included).
- the key to making large returns on your "trading kitty" is to have no money sitting around doing nothing or dwindling in poor FA picks. I am as much a fundamentalist as I am a TA trader but I realise that I can outperform a buy and hold strategy with a certain amount of my funds by actively trading. The key is to understand how to trade sentiment and trends.
- the best traders I know have an open mind and use both TA and FA.
- the best traders I know are "discretionary" and have a system based upon experience and some concrete principles which cannot be punched into a system tester and "proven" - they are based upon a huge amount of observation , experience and hard work.

- there ARE a few traders who are making 50,60,70,80,90% returns on large sums of money. Quite obviously making 80% pa over a long period on billions is nigh on impossible and there must be diminishing returns as you get larger or we'd have new trading billionaires all the time. That's not to say that there's not traders out there making 80% pa on 6 and 7 figure sums - there are!! (and that's WITHOUT leverage, CFDs, margin loans,options , warrants,futures)

- people turning over large amounts in the market neither have the time nor inclination to try and compete with others and prove themselves.........or hang around forums in most cases. I personally trade AND invest.........turn over in excess of $1m/month most months. Do you think I could be stuffed posting my trades (around 70 positions currently) and trying to prove myself to some people on the internet I don't know. I actually spend a lot of my free time helping other traders with general queries and am all for pointing people in the right direction but as far as trying to explain my system and prove it to everyone?? Couldn't be bothered and it's actually nigh on impossible to teach a discretionary system anyway unless you sit with someone and "mentor " them for months on end. And then you come across another hurdle - getting them to THINK like a top trader is nigh on impossible unless they have the ability to teach themselves to leave emotion at the door. You can however teach some very important general principles that make up that system as Bunyip has indicated.

- most of the traders I know making really big money from the markets do it full time. TechA does a fantastic job using a low maintainence system - those who wish to do significantly better can expect to spend 40+ hrs a week on it.

- I am aware of the actual trading results of some of the overexposed seminar promoters out there and let's just say that most of their money must come from books and seminars.


That's my piece - make of it what you will. I have made no claims about my own results - I have been making a living fulltime from the market from the age of 27 (currently 32) and have no need to prove myself to anyone.

The only reason I bothered posting was to try and get across to some of those with a more open mind that YES .......a very small minority are making a killing from the markets. If you open your mind , forget conventional wisdom about what is possible and just get in there and try and come up with some unique ideas then you might just be one of them

The only way to seriously outperform everyone else is to do something everyone else isn't doing.

Over and out

Ed

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

This thread cracks me up and was why (other than lack of time) I give many forums a wide berth - I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry actually. We have a whole lot of one-upmanship here dominated by traders who refuse to believe that anyone has an approach that produces "mega returns" just because they cannot manage it themselves.

I am not going to even try and make any claims myself , but let's just say that I am in contact with traders all day every day, have seen trading statements/tax returns of my closer trading friends.

I'm not going to get myself into an argument with the usual suspects here but let me say that I talk from some experience - I in fact used to be a one eyed Buffet fan who believed that the returns he has produced over a very long period (say 20-25% pa ) were the ultimate and that technical analysis was akin to palm reading.

Over the years my opinions have changed.

Let me just make a few points to those who refuse to believe that there are possibilities beyond what their closed minds and I will leave it at that. I have no wish and no need to get into a philosophical argument or to prove anything to anyone other than myself. I get the feeling Bunyip is a bit the same and for mine I'd be guessing he's the most likely here to be making spectacular returns.

My points as follows:

-most beginning traders suffer from undercapitlisation and are not aware of what is possible until they trade more significant amounts (myself included).
- the best traders I know have an open mind and use both TA and FA.
- the best traders I know are "discretionary" and have a system based upon experience and some concrete principles which cannot be punched into a system tester and "proven"

- there ARE a few traders who are making 50,60,70,80,90% returns on large sums of money. Quite obviously making 80% pa on billions is nigh on impossible and there must be diminishing returns as you get larger or we'd have new trading billionaires all the time. That's not to say that there's not traders out there making 80% pa on 6 and 7 figure sums - there are!!

- people turning over large amounts in the market neither have the time nor inclination to try and compete with others and prove themselves. I personally trade AND invest.........turn over in excess of $1m/month most months. Do you think I could be stuffed posting my trades (around 70 positions currently) and trying to prove myself to some people on the internet I don't know. I actually spend a lot of time helping other traders with general queries and am all for pointing people in the right direction but as far as trying to explain my system and prove it to everyone?? Couldn't be bothered and it's actually nigh on impossible to teach a discretionary system anyway unless you sit with someone and "mentor " them for months on end. You can however teach some very important general principles that make up that system as Bunyip has indicated.

- most of the traders making really big money from the markets do it full time. TechA does a fantastic job using a low maintainence system - those who wish to do significantly better can expect to spend 40-60 hrs a week on it.

- I am aware of the actual trading results of some of the overexposed seminar promoters out there and let's just say that most of their money must come from books and seminars.


That's my piece - make of it what you will. I have made no claims about my own results - I have been making a living from the market from the age of 28 (currently 32) and have no need to prove myself to anyone.

The only reason I bothered posting was to try and get across to some of those with a more open mind that YES .......a very small minority are making a killing from the markets. If you open your mind , forget conventional wisdom about what is possible and just get in there and try and come up with some unique ideas then you might just be one of them

The only way to seriously outperform everyone else is to do something else.

Over and out

Ed

Thank you Eddie Van Halen.
it is entertainment.

 

[swingstar]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Nice post Ed.

 

[bullmarket]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Hi eddievanhalen

It looks to me you're trying to have it both ways since you say you haven't made any claims but when I read your post you clearly make claims of various sorts. Personally I have no idea if your claims are true or not but it doesn't really matter.

What I find amusing is that people make unsubstantialted and unverifiable claims in chatrooms like this and then expect others to just blindly believe them ......I for one have always had and will always have a policy of not blindly believing what I read in chatrooms.

The way I see it, the more people get upset and aggressive towards those who justifiably choose to not believe unsubstantiated/unverifiable claims the more confident I am that their claims were horse manure in the first place because if their claims were true, I cannot see how on earth it should matter to them if I or anyone else blindly believes them or not......being aggressive/abusive towards other chatters indicates to me they have other agendas which require them to be believed for their agendas to be achieved.

cheers

bullmarket

 

[David123]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

im no guru, but wouldnt u think u shud use both coz, a share price u wud think wud rise because of a fundamental reason?

i myself just enter in direction of trend,volume and keep stops tight, and look at fundys to make sure its making money..i make a little from a little :



cheers

 

[eddievanhalen]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You're right bullmarket ofcourse. That's the problem with these discussions and I acknowledge the logic behind what you say. Having said that I'd like to think what I posted has a bit more substance than "Buy XYZ..whoosh ..going to the moon". Hard to see how I could possibly benefit from what I posted.........the so-called "agenda" I only pop into this forum occassionally and not looking to build (or destroy : ) my reputation here.

I never normally get involved for that very reason. I was just a bit frustrated with how some people are limiting their own progress based upon conventional wisdom. Obviously some of the contributors to this thread have a lot of experience and their beliefs are based upon that experience...........fine. It's more the newbies who read this that I'm worried about.

The only reason I posted at all was to try (in vain probably) to maybe influence some of those who refuse to believe that returns greater than 10-20% pa are possible to think outside the square a bit.

I see no reason for anyone to believe me any more than those who claim that nobody (trading smaller amounts) can beat Buffett. This thread will never get anywhere in my opinion and I almost regret posting in it.

Back to work.

I'll come back in a few weeks and see how may more times we've gone around in circles

Ed


PS the only real "claim" I made to illustrate a point was that I currently hold 70 positions and TURN OVER 1m/month. When I say turnover I mean total sales. I could do that buying in and out of BHP 50 times for the month using only $20,000. It doesn't imply a level of profit at all.

 

[bunyip]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Thanks Ed.....that was an outstanding post. You show knowledge and wisdom beyond your years.
I doubt if you'll convince the non believers though....maybe one in fifty of them will be prepared to think outside the square he's living in, get off his backside and start putting in the hard yards necessary to learn a better and simpler way of profiting from the market.
Most of them however will continue to believe the age old crap that keeps them slugging along at 10 to 15% annual returns (if they're lucky) and believing that because they can't get above this level, nobody else can either.

Anyway, at least we've tried to help they eh? But we won't try too hard because as you've pointed out, we really don't need to convince anyone of anything and we feel no need to prove ourselves to anyone.

Bunyip

 

[Bobby]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Over the years my opinions have changed.

The only way to seriously outperform everyone else is to do something everyone else isn't doing.

Like that ! Yep if everyone is trying to stick their paw into the cooky jar at the same time, how are you going to get any cookies?

I do something manualy that works, but is so slow as I need to physically monitor one stock at a time.
Now if I could find a programmer to do the code so as to run the thing through a software package ~
But would it get pinched ?

Bob.

 

[MichaelD]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realise that you don't need to know much in order to profit consistently from the market. Too much information and knowledge can be detrimental to trading results. There's a colossal amount of information out there, both technical and fundamental.
Most of it is pretty damned useless in my experience.
The important things in trading are...
* Identify strong trends.
* Have one or two simple setups to signal an entry into these strong trends.
* Use stops and money management to strictly control your losses.
* Have an exit strategy that's designed to keep you in the winning trades as long as they keep performing well, and take you out when the party is over.

In other words, keep it simple and be consistent.

Bunyip

All absolutely true. My plan does all of this and so do I. So far, the plan (and I) are performing to (backtested) specification.

Really our only point of difference is in my belief that many "fashionable" entries are no better or even worse than random. Interestingly, I am currently reading Van Tharp's Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom which essentially supports that philosophy.

Let's settle on middle ground; the entry is the least important part of the trade for technical traders.