Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis?

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I'll leave that to the expert----Your only interested in your own voice not that of any other.
Regardless of what would be presented you would and do take a counter veiw.

There are some knowledgable people here who just dont bother to become involved.
Some have attempted most including myself dont even bother.

Whats the point??

So you are not here to give opinions, just criticise others who do.

Great, thanks.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I and others I am certain have no intention of posting relevant information.When contributors are sarcastic,opinionated,show no humility,whos only goal in the discussion is to promote their own "opinionated veiw" on others.

Your goal is to control the thread.You have no desire to learn.You have no respect for others opinions particularly as 90% of them dont fall into your Mindset of what you think "Should be".


Show some humility with other posters and you may get a better discussion.

Frankly you need to have these "qualities" pointed out.
It certaintly is critisism which will have I expect no effect.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I and others I am certain have no intention of posting relevant information.

That takes the cake. Hahahahaaaa

You admit that you have no intention of posting relevant information.

What the hell are you posting for then?

If you have no intention of posting relevant information then I suggest you just read and not post at all.

I, like everyone else has opinions, I express them here, I do not belittle others opinions like you enjoy doing, my opinions like everyone elses are valid, and if you disagree with them you should explain why. Do not argue the person, argue the point.

I have no doubt you know more about houses than me, and trading than me. I am in no way an expert on houses or trading, I've never expressed that I am, I've never bought a house or "traded" a share - I only "invest". Wayne asked me a question about houses. I gave an answer - it could well be wrong, if so I'd rather someone pointed out what was wrong and what the correct answer is than trying to get personal and criticisng me.

I'll ask you again, so you can redeem yourself...

What do you think Sydney house prices will do in the next 2 years?

 

[macca]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I think we will see Sydney house prices drift until the median rental return is about the same as the RBA interest rate.

If we ignore the waterfronts etc and look at most suburban houses, when the gross rental return is about 5.5% to 6% I would be buying at the first sign of tightening in the market.

Regional areas will get up to 6% + like they were before this last charge in prices.

If I were being ultra cautious I would wait until the first drop in the RBA interest rate then buy.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I think we will see Sydney house prices drift until the median rental return is about the same as the RBA interest rate.

If we ignore the waterfronts etc and look at most suburban houses, when the gross rental return is about 5.5% to 6% I would be buying at the first sign of tightening in the market.

Regional areas will get up to 6% + like they were before this last charge in prices.

If I were being ultra cautious I would wait until the first drop in the RBA interest rate then buy.

Good point Macca, I think you are right.

Any idea where we can get exact figures on rental returns?

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I and others I am certain have no intention of posting relevant information.When contributors are sarcastic,opinionated,show no humility,whos only goal in the discussion is to promote their own "opinionated veiw" on others.

If the statement is taken in context its humor value diminishes.

Do not argue the person, argue the point.

Many have tried that but your opinion is "THE" opinion you have no capacity to discuss any opinion (and infact some of the "opinion" offered here are quantifiable fact),let alone adopt a proven fact statement or methodology.

I'll ask you again, so you can redeem yourself...

I am deeply and for ever greatful that you in your generous wisdom will allow such an opportunity.

Ill post a little later if that fits with your timeframe.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ill post a little later if that fits with your timeframe.

Good man.

There's no denying I am opinionated, but despite what you say i do at least read others opinions and consider them.

And I would genuinely be interested in your opinion on house prices.

I personally think I have done well not buying so far in Sydney (I didn't have the money 5 years ago) and instead investing in shares. Obviously results prove that - houses have gone down if anything and shares significantly up.

I know there will be a turning point though, when reducing your shareholding and instead moving it into property would be the wise move.

When is that? it can't be too far off - between 6 months and 4 years is my guess?

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

There's no denying I am opinionated,

You remind me a lot of myself many moons ago.

Fortunately I have learned that there are many who have a great deal to contribute and I have been fortunate enough to take on board and apply much of that which sticks out as obvious (And sometimes the not so obvious---some af Radges thought) in my own backyard.

Enthusiasm like yours is hard to find and a quality that if used wisely will see you reach your goals.

Back soon.

 

[Sean K]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You guys going to start talking about technical and fundamental analysis again soon?

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

You guys going to start talking about technical and fundamental analysis again soon?

Yes back to the battle :casanova:


:shoot: :sword:

 

[ghotib]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Is THAT what this thread is about? Gee... who'd a thunk it?

 

[Bobby]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Is THAT what this thread is about? Gee... who'd a thunk it?

Yep ? its all about posts who can post the most !

And the winner is ? ------- who at this rate will average 4400 in his first year :

 

[tech/a]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ill post response in the housing thread.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Yep ? its all about posts who can post the most !

And the winner is ? ------- who at this rate will average 4400 in his first year :

I'm heading for 6000 posts!

As I said before I am changing jobs soon, so have spare time and I'm bored sh*tless (maybe I should trade ). and I going to Singapore for work, then maybe South America or Europe for a month or so on holiday, then NZ for a month. So unfortunately for you guys I wont be here all the time posting unbiased well thought out indisputable facts for you all to admire.

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Realist,

You might find it interesting to look at the CMI chart. I'm no wizzbang TA but its interesting the point at which its found resistance (around $1.30). I suspect the TA's would say its pretty textbook. (If I understand correctly its hit the downtrend resistance line).

If you look at historical price action you'll also see that it tended to bump into the 1.30 support line quite a bit over the past year (which is now also acting as resistance).

I"m curious - what price did you enter CMI? It's pretty unlikely you entered it at $1.

The reason I'm raising it is not to pick on your strategy but to explore the idea of combining both FA and TA. In this situation you've identified a stock that you think is worthwhile based on your own FA.

You could possibly have waited a while before entering as it is in a downtrend. Then on the sign of a break from the immediate downtrend, traded it up until the 1.30 resistance of the larger downtrend. Sold on a tight trailing stop around that level and now be waiting for a reentry.

I'd be curious for the TA's to comment because I'm not really that versed in TA.

I suspect the first thing we'd be waiting for is some sign of whether the recent upswing is a real break from the longer term downtrend or just a reversal in the long term downtrend.

The risk with the trading approach would be that it punches through one of those resistance levels without a breather and you miss out on some strong profit. But for a company like CMI, who aren't about to discover the next bass strait or invent a time machine, its probably a fairly safe bet that they won't do anything too unpredictable.

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I bought 1000 CMI shares at $1.20 - collected some dividends then sold in June 30 at a small loss.

I cleaned up my portfolio before tax year end. Sold RIC as well.

I speculated with tiny amounts on CMI and RIC and CDO and broke even.

Graham did recommend selling and buying back if tax works in your favour. I sold CDO at $4.35 and made a profit - it is worth less now.

If CMI went under $1 I may buy back??

CMI may be a good buy soon, it's going to report earnings soon and they are as good as last year supposedly. About a $7M profit for a $44M company. Quite excellent really.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

So you are trying to tell me that no-one has ever sold a house for less than it is worth?



When interest rates go up, unemployment rises, oil soars - there'll be people mortgaged to the hilt that have to sell, they simply can't afford the mortgage. That's when you'll get a house for less than it is truly worth.

Hence houses will be undervalued compared to their true value.

NO properties will represent their value as a result of the conditions. It is highly possible that some will sell for less than others to get a quick sale, but that does not constitute undervaluation as you would think stocks are undervalued.

Asking prices are not always true representations of value due to mark ups and testing the market - revelation for you. Hence they are not undervalued when they sell for less. If they can`t sell for what they are asking the price drops to its real value, or changes value to a lower price representing its new value due to market conditions - thats only if they are keen to sell though.

So its value is its value.
Ta, ta,

 

[cuttlefish]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

I bought 1000 CMI shares at $1.20 - collected some dividends then sold in June 30 at a small loss.

I cleaned up my portfolio before tax year end. Sold RIC as well.

I speculated with tiny amounts on CMI and RIC and CDO and broke even.

Graham did recommend selling and buying back if tax works in your favour. I sold CDO at $4.35 and made a profit - it is worth less now.

If CMI went under $1 I may buy back??

CMI may be a good buy soon, it's going to report earnings soon and they are as good as last year supposedly. About a $7M profit for a $44M company. Quite excellent really.

consistency isn't your thing is it. lol

 

[Realist]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

consistency isn't your thing is it. lol

I invest most of my money in large successful near monopolies who have a global presence. I hold for years. Buy in downturns.

WDC, FGL, BHP etc.

I've never sold any of these ever!!!

I'll also dabble tiny amounts in pissy little undervalued small caps that pay dividends, companies that I perceive to be quite undervalued and have a good P/B and low PER ratios, these are speculative and I never put much money in them

CDO, CMI, RIC.

I'll sell if I've made good money (CDO) and they aren't undervalued any more, or if they go down and the tax offsuit suits me (CMI and RIC) or if I fell I am getting nowhere.

simple right?

I buy and hold big companies, and dabble a little money in small caps.

That is consistency at its finest.

 

[MichaelD]

Re: Which one do you use? Technical or fundamental analysis

Ah, bugger it. I've held back from posting this and held back and held back, but SURELY enough is enough. Time to call a spade a spade.


PLEASE those of you who should know better (myself included) stop feeding the troll. He's not even a very good troll (there's a much better one around) and he has been fed extremely well.

Plenty of you have declared your stop losses hit in this thread, so stop the ongoing slippage!

Let the market teach the troll his lesson - he sure ain't listening to any of us.